Practice Makes Perfect
Hello guys! I'm here with another poker hand to analyze. Always remember that the most important skill to achieve perfection is practice, practice and more practice. Before we know it, it will become second nature at the tables. Let's jump in at today's hand:
Preflop
Preflop Equity Estimation
If you haven't seen my post on how to calculate preflop equity quickly, check it out here.
My equity estimation is: J(11)2 +J(11) + 20 + paired(24) = 74%*
Looking at my opponent stats, he is 3Betting here with 10% of his hands, so I have to deduct about 15% to a total equity of 59%.
Equity Reality Check
The accurate equity is 58%:
The Flop
Narrowing Ranges
Our opponent bets a little less than 1/2 pot. The bet size for me shows a bit of weakness, if he has an overpair like AA, KK and QQ, I think he should bet bigger to get value from my AK, AQ, AJ, etc. I also think he would bet his FDs bigger, so I will not take them into account. However, let's try to narrow his range as much as we can, including some strong hands he might be slowplaying, which in this case is the 1 combo of quads:
The Turn
Narrowing Ranges
Our opponent again bets 1/2 pot and I call. He is probably thinking I am on a draw because I haven't raised him. He could be doing this with a weak hand like AK with no flush draw or a pocket pair (at this point I think only with JJ and TT):
The River
Narrowing Ranges
The 3 didn't do anything for his range as we discounted the flush draws on previous streets. At this point what I'm thinking is that he is going all in because he was already pot commited, so I kept the same range as before, overpairs of JJ and TT, as well as AK bluffs. I think my passivity through the hand may have been a signal to him that I didn't have something worth raising for value:
Showdown
He showed up with AcKc which was on his final range of 22 combos out of the 110 combos preflop:
Summary
This practice was really nice, however I realized that I could have raised if his stack size was bigger to extract value. He showed weakness by making three 1/2 pot bets. I also represented a medium streght hand by not 4betting preflop, so he probably took all of my AK, AA, KK and QQ off my range. I also believe the hand would have gone completely different if he was not pot commited.
If you have any thoughts on this hand, leave a comment, I would love to read it!
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Best regards,
daniel.dalo