No, the reason is not actually mean tweets or tantrums over joint military exercises. It will probably fail because of a split in the Trump administration. I am no fan of Trump’s presidency, but I think he legitimately wants to bring peace to the Korean peninsula. If nothing else he wants to be able to say he did something that Obama could not and a shot at the Nobel Peace Prize.
The problem is that Trump seems to have decided to do this mostly on his own, and many people in his administration do not agree. The establishment wanted to push North Korea further into a corner before sitting down for peace talks in order to get a more favorable deal, and some neoconservatives always believed that the North Korea issue could only be solved with war.
It is clear at this point that the Trump administration does not run a tight ship. It appears that the new National Security Advisor John Bolton and others are trying to sabotage the talks before they even happen.
Who is John Bolton?
He is a person so hawkish that even in a government that justifies fighting so many wars, he is known as a “warmongering lunatic”. He was one of the most neoconservative members of the Bush administration. He recently became Trump’s new National Security Advisor. It is clear from his career that he has little respect for international norms or even diplomacy. Here are a few highlights from his career that reflect this.
In 2001, Bolton was the member of the Bush administration that made sure that the U.S. would not join the International Criminal Court. Read https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa-311.pdf if you are interested in reading more about that situation.
Also in 2001, he refused to let the UN inspect U.S. weapon manufacturing locations for offensive biological weapons.
This also is not the first time he has tried to sabotage talks with North Korea. He also prevented U.S.-North Korea talks in 2003.
He helped Bush end the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia that had been in place since 1972.
He was also one of the strongest advocates of the idea that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction in 2003.
You can read more about Bolton’s career here. https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-11-30-bolton-usat_x.htm
How is Bolton Trying to Sabotage the Meeting?
The short answer is that he keeps bringing up Libya. Libya’s previous leader Muammar Gaddafi did have a nuclear weapons program in the works until the early 2000s. He made a deal with the U.S. to dismantle this program in exchange for the safety of his regime and economic assistance.
The problem is that in this case, the U.S. did not honor their end of the deal. When the Arab Spring reached Libya in 2011, the U.S. and the rest of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) bombed Libya, opposing Gaddafi’s regime. Gaddafi was killed in 2011 by his own people in brutal and gruesome way.
Seven years later, the country is still in utter chaos. The “UN recognized government” does not actually control the country. There are several other groups that consider themselves the government of Libya that are fighting each other. Terrorist groups, including ISIS, have caused mayhem in Libya as well. Human trafficking, torture, and killings have become common place.
Read https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/04/obamas-worst-mistake-libya/478461/ and https://www.hrw.org/middle-east/n-africa/libya if you want to know more about the situation in Libya.
North Korea is well aware of what happened in Libya. North Korea’s government is most concerned about the future of the Kim regime.
Every time someone mentions Libya in the context of North Korea talks, it can be interpreted as the U.S. will probably topple your government anyway even if peace talks succeed. John Bolton is not an idiot. He knew that bringing up Libya would bring any idea of peace talks to a screeching halt. Vice President Pence is only making the situation worse.
Conclusion
North and South Korea appear to be ready for peace, but this will not be possible unless the U.S. is involved in the talks because of the U.S.’s significant military presence in the region. If Trump does not realize how members of his administration are trying to undermine him, he has no chance of succeeding.