This is a well thought out post and points to a real developing "conditioning attack" we are subjected to in the West. The same thing developed rapidly in the 1950s. When the USSR dropped out of history in 1989, a whole generation of "Kremlin-ologists" went into a tailspin over what to do next--whole careers just shut down for lack of the big bear.
Research that quickly developed in the following years confirmed what somber minds kept repeating for 40 years: the Soviet leadership was committed to playing it safe at all costs--but of course found grounds to intervene within its clearly delimitated sphere of influence."
Right now, the "power centers" are borrowing from the old rusty safe in the basement: the big bear is out again and we need to "defend." None of the "experts" wishes to note the facts of Russian history and the perennial dislike of czars and bolsheviks and stalinists and their descendants until 89 to stick their necks out in direct confrontation with the West. And the current KGB czar is no different ... if anything, he's all too cautious and will move ONLY if he sees an opening that carries minimum or no costs....