🔫🔫🔫 Offensive in Raqqa: "the Islamic State -ISIS- no longer exists" 🔫🔫🔫

The Syrian Democratic Forces backed by the US coalition, entered Raqqa defended by Daech. Specialist in international affairs, Hadrian DESUIN decrypts the decline of the Islamic state in Raqqa.

The Arab and Kurdish forces, supported by the Americans, launched the offensive against the IA in Raqqa and entered the eastern part of the city on 6 June. What does Raqqa stand for EI today? Does the reconquest of Raqqa mean the fall of the Islamic State?

From a strictly territorial point of view, "the Islamic State" no longer exists.

Raqqa does not represent much in the symbolism of the Caliphate. A city like Mosul is more interesting because it strikes the imaginary of Islamic mythology. Like Damascus from which the reconquest of Saladin went to drive out the crusaders of Jerusalem. Raqqa, however, was the largest Syrian city under occupation of the Islamic state. It was therefore the economic capital of Daech in Syria. It was very well situated when the jihadist organization was at the height of its power in 2014- 2015. 300,000 inhabitants, overwhelmingly Arab Sunni, gave substance to the Islamic state. The military outcome of Raqqa is no longer in doubt. The seat will be long but it is only a matter of time. The assailants will undoubtedly take the time to let the besieged weaken by cutting off their supplies. In the meantime, they could strengthen their positions throughout the province of Raqqa.

From a strictly territorial point of view, "the Islamic State" no longer exists. The links are very complicated between Syria and Iraq. There remain only large pockets of resistance, unable to co-ordinate with each other. No more zones are safe. These will continue for a long time because they are held by fanatics ready to die rather than surrender. In some highly urbanized neighborhoods, small teams of snipers or RPG shooters can dramatically slow down the progression of a trained troop. It takes 10 assailants for a defender unless you shave the city. It is, however, a rearguard battle. Since the counter-offensives of the American and Russian coalitions began, the IE has returned to the more classic model of Al Qaeda: internationalization of terrorism and guerrilla franchises throughout the Muslim world. Let us not forget that Daech is initially only a dissidence of Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant.

The ideology of Daech, and of jihadism in general, can not live outside conquest. As soon as she was arrested at the gates of Baghdad, Palmyra and Kobane, Daech had to reinvent herself in order to survive and maintain her wild murderous cavalcade.

What are the interests of the United States in Raqqa?

It is a matter of confining as much as possible Russia and Iran, which are still seen in Washington as the main adversaries of America on a world scale.

The United States wanted to take Raqqa before the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrian army. Even if they are angry with the Turks who fear above all the extension of Syrian Kurdistan. The capture of Raqqa will symbolically mark the defeat of Daech in Syria and thus the victory of the American coalition. For Donald Trump, the issue is important after years of extreme caution on the part of Barack Obama on this issue. From a geopolitical point of view, the Iranian-Russian coalition would be forced to leave the Euphrates Valley to the allies of the Americans. It is a matter of confining as much as possible Russia and Iran, which are still seen in Washington as the main adversaries of America on a world scale.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (FDS) nevertheless treat their relations with the Russians and therefore with the Syrian regime because they have to coordinate with them in the pocket of Afrin, cut from the heart of Rojava which goes from Kobané to Hassake. By taking Raqqa, the Americans also want to reassure Saudi Arabia, the great ally of Donald Trump: Eastern Syria will not fall into the Shiite purse. This Saudi and confessional vision is somewhat caricatured because the Bashar regime has always been able to deal with the Sunni populations in the past. To make it a sect hooked on an Alawite clan is very simplistic. Syria of the 2000s also knew how to play rivalries between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Who will hold the city after the departure of the jihadists?

The Arab members of the FDS alliance are in the front line but the Kurds will have a place inevitable. However, they will have to rely on the major families of the city who have suffered the oppression of the Islamic state for more than five years. The Kurds will be able to reoccupy the neighborhoods from which they have been expelled but must remain outside the Arab quarters if they wish to win peace. Ideally, a municipality under the aegis of the notables of Raqqa should take the socio-economic affairs in hand, leaving to the FDS the military defense of the city.

Why does the Russian coalition not participate in this assault?

Because the Americans and the Russians never managed to agree on the perimeter of a possible coalition. The Russians are allied with the Iranians, Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad's army. Neither the Pentagon nor the CIA can accept to fight with the allies of Russia. They support Sunni rebels who are fighting against the Syrian army in the south of the country. Unless there is agreement on a division of the zones of influence, the partition of Syria is done by arms. Each camp tries to take as much land as possible from the rubble of Daech, much like what happened in Manbij and Al-Bab.

Ideally, a municipality under the aegis of the notables of Raqqa should take the socio-economic affairs in hand, leaving to the FDS the military defense of the city.

For the battle of Raqqa, the forces supported by Russia are still 100km from the city. Which is already belted by the SDS. It is therefore too late for the troops of Damascus to take part in the capture of the city. The objective is to consolidate the territories gained to the east of Aleppo and in the center of the country, around Palmyra. There are also the districts of Der Ez Zor to defend, the other big city on the Euphrates. The enclave that has been resisting Daech for years is again under intense pressure from the jihadists.