Jose Alejandrino: The ISIS threat

As I keep saying, as ISIS continues to suffer setbacks in Syria and Iraq, it will shift its operations to soft States. Marawi could just be a preview of what might come.

My estimate is if ISIS shifts operations, it has the capacity to infiltrate at least some 5,000 of its battle-hardened terrorists to the Philippines and Indonesia. The most porous of our border is our southern backdoor. Our navy simply does not have enough ships to patrol it. My guess is if ISIS sends more terrorists, they will go first to Indonesia and from there jump to the Philippines. Why Indonesia? Because ISIS already has a big cadre of followers and sympathizers there which range from half a million to one million.

We cannot take the ISIS threat lightly. Their followers are fanatics who only seek to kill and destroy. Look what they did in Syria and Iraq. Look what they did in Marawi. You cannot reason with fanatics willing to die for their cause.

Mindanao attracts ISIS not only because of its Muslim population but also because of its state of poverty and underdevelopment. President Duterte recognizes this and would like to prioritize the economic development of the island. But how do you undertake economic development with a volatile and unstable law and order situation?

The people of Luzon and the Visayas should have reason to be worried by the situation in Mindanao. If ISIS gains a strong foothold in Mindanao, it will extend its front to the Visayas and most likely Luzon too. The whole Philippines is at risk.

Then there are the insurgent and separatist movements in Mindanao. The Moro separatists want greater autonomy and separate states which the president agrees by having a federal system. Hopefully this will satisfy the MNLF and MILF. But what about the NPAs? How will that satisfy them? As ISIS gains strength, won't they forge, if they have not already done so, a tactical alliance with terrorists?

Here is where we need to win quickly our war on illegal drugs which, like in other countries, is a source of funding for insurgents and terrorists. We cannot afford to fail in this war. Failure will merely complicate an already complicated situation.

The president is asking for more soldiers, 20,000 more according to one source. If ISIS shifts operations and formalizes a tactical alliance with the NPAs, my guess is 20,000 won't be enough. We may need at least 50,000.

We will need stiffer anti-terrorism measures and a better organized Intel system. These cannot be done overnight. The sooner we address them, the better. As I keep saying, we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Disclaimer: Taken from my Facebook feed today, in Benson Bautista's wall.

https://www.facebook.com/benson.bautista.31?hc_ref=ARTtJVEZmhhVFVmgHDnGBdhFHUmkNlT9siUa4l5HRP3bBLv2VOpgTI8c3bZ46BOSLhA&fref=nf