It isn't over yet. But it seems clear we are NOT getting the big Red Wave some had predicted. GOP gains are at the low end of what experts predicted, and most outcomes are roughly in line with polls. The Democrats might well hold the Senate, and if they lose it, it will probably be only the net loss of 1 seat. They will probably still lose the House, but if so it might well be by only a small margin. The fact we are this late into the night and they still have a real chance to hold on in the House (I'd say about 15-20%) is itself surprising!
A few more specific thoughts:
Of the seriously contested Senate seats, the Democrats have won New Hampshire, and seem very likely to take Pennsylvania and Arizona. I think the Republicans will get Nevada. As in 2020-21, Georgia seems likely to go to a runoff - which could - again as in 2021 - well determine control of the Senate. Warnock may be the first candidate in history to participate in TWO Senate runoffs.
Perhaps the Georgia Senate runoff - and control of the Senate - will be determined by the 2% or so of the vote that goes to Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (FWIW, he's part of the anti-Mises Caucus faction of the party that still sticks to genuine libertarian values). Maybe Walker and Warnock will be forced to adopt more libertarian positions in order to prevail! OK, probably not. But a man can dream!
Back to reality! In the House, the GOP seems likely to prevail. But it should be close (perhaps 225-230 GOP seats), and Kevin McCarthy will have trouble holding this majority together, as moderates and Trumpists will pull him in different directions.
If the GOP ends up underperforming expectations, why would that be? It's certainly not because Biden is popular (his approval rating is consistently 10 points underwater) or because things are going well and people are happy (we have the highest inflation in 40 years, plus a crime wave). The GOP's problems are due to a combination of Trump (he remains the leader of the party and is even more unpopular than Biden), Dobbs (abortion is second only to the economy in most polls of what the most important issue is; and most of those who say it's their big issue voted D, including perhaps, a few key swing voters), and some really cruddy candidates in key Senate races (Oz, Masters, Walker, Bolduc). As I said before, I wouldn't hire this crew to manage a garbage dump, and at least some crucial swing voters seem to agree (a rare instance where my views and the median voter's seem to coincide). These 3 factors have enabled Democrats to have the best off-year election for the party of the incumbent president since 2002. Trump and his chosen Senate candidates have helped make the Dems great again - or at least made them seem less awful than they would otherwise.
Marijuana legalization and abortion rights are also having a good night, except - sadly - in Arkansas (marijuana). Not sure what will happen on abortion in Kentucky. But the fact that it's close in such a conservative state is itself not a great sign for pro-lifers.
As I said, at the start, things are still fluid. So I might have to eat some of the above words. But barring some truly dramatic change, I doubt I will have to reverse my basic conclusion on how things have gone, which is that the GOP has made some gains, but far less than they should, given the underlying situation in the country.
You've got a free upvote from witness fuli.
Peace & Love!
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