All Democrats just joined 8 Republicans to remove Kevin McCarthy on a 216-210 vote.

in politics •  last year 

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McCarthy refused to offer the Ds any concessions to get them to support him and they weren't willing to do so for nothing.

However, this is likely just the beginning of this fight. McCarthy will surely fight to be reinstated as speaker, and the vast majority of House Republicans support him. But they can't get him back in the chair unless they 1) get some D votes, or 2) win back the support of at least 4-5 of the rebel Republicans). Any alternative GOP speaker candidate backed by Matt Gaetz and the other rebels faces much longer odds. Ditto for the Dems trying to get Republicans to defect into supporting the D leader (Hakeem Jeffries) as speaker.

Thus, all options are still potentially on the table: McCarthy could pay off some Democrats to support him, Gaetz (less likely) could try to engineer a similar deal, the Ds could try to buy some GOP votes for Jeffries, and so on. There's also a kind of game of chicken going on in which all 3 factions (pro-McCarthy Rs, anti-McCarthy Rs, and Democrats) try to act tough in hopes one of the other groups will give in first.

There is also a conundrum about whether people trust McCarthy enough to make a deal with him. I am not certain. But it does seem like he made commitments to both Democrats and right-wing Republicans that he then failed to keep. That may make both groups reluctant to make another deal with him now. Gaetz, of course, also isn't exactly a paragon of virtue on such matters.

All of this is somewhat ridiculous and even laughable. But meanwhile aid to Ukraine (which should be a no-brainer!) languishes. And, whoever wins the fight, I fear the resulting policies will be no better than before, possibly even a bit worse. If this circus really would lead to lower spending and a better budget process generally, I would be all for it! But, at this point, that seems unlikely.

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