Economists predict that the future belongs to Asia; China and india are deemed to overtake the West’ that is’ the Europe and USA. The gdps of china and india have been witnessing a steady growth, either maintaining status quo or progressing upwards.
Once a dead weight, the humongous population now has become an advantage. China’s population growth is decelerating while india’s growth in population has not declined.
In the point of productivity, that is,manpower to produce goods and services, it is a welcome sign but the negative side is efforts needed to create jobs and increasing agricultural productivity to feed them.Here comes the problem with governance.
It is visualized that centralized manufacturing will help china and india to achieve success. I visualize a scenario wherein manufacturing will be decentralized in many of the African countries. China is no longer a cheap labor country and india too will be a costlier nation ten years from now.
As long as research and development is key to new manufactures, the west will have its lead. Even after 30 years of economic success Japan has not improved its capabilities in core sector research. Once a product or invention is made in the west, Japan builds upon it.
India is overflowing with people;20 years from now it will face shortage of farming land as well land for people to live in. India is jusy one third of the size of china. When people move out from one state to another in search of jobs and land, racial conflagration will flare up. India is not a monolithic country ethnically as china is.
There will be uprisings against majoritarianism and India will have to worry about unity. I fear the fate of Yugoslavia for India. So India is not a candidate to watch for.
For sustained economic growths, two things are necessary: institutions and policies that support private enterprise and government. USA is endowed with both of these vitals.
Government creates level playing field for all; it does not promote one industrial house over the other, unethically. It creates a general equality of condition among all entrepreneurs and people. USA has these in abundance and it attracts brilliant people from across the lands, notwithstanding Trump.
Back in 60s, it was forecast that Japan would overtake the US but that remained a mere failed forecast. So I take the current forecasts for the future that china and india would occupy the top 2 slots as economic giants with a pinch of salt. In my opinion the US would continue to remain at the top for atleast another 50 years.