So it finally happened. Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 Presidential Race, leaving his campaign to Vice President Kamala Harris. If you remember, Harris ran once before in 2019, and lost after getting beat in a debate by Tulsi Gabbard.
Many people thought that would be the end of Kamala Harris. Sadly, this was not to be, as Joe Biden announced her as his running mate. They went on to win the election in November during the Covid Crisis.
I really do not believe that Kamala can beat Donald Trump in November for the following reasons.
Kamala has no Rust Belt appeal
One of Joe Biden’s appeals, even if you disliked him, was that he was known as Scranton Joe. Pennsylvania was basically his second home state. No hate there, I consider Missouri to be my second home state after Florida.
Needless to say, that moniker helped him in 2020. He appealed to white working-class union voters in the Rust Belt, which had previously gone to Donald Trump in 2016. Of course, we should keep in mind that his win was not a landslide despite the Covid Crisis.
Even though Biden had declined since then, he was still a dangerous opponent due to his appeal with white-working class union Rust Belt voters. The same cannot be said with Harris. Harris is a San Francisco liberal, the definition of a coastal elite.
I really had no idea what Biden was thinking when he picked her as his VP, given she had no strategic value outside of nonwhite women. The Democrats don’t need to lock down California, they need to lock down the Rust Belt. Alas, it ended up not mattering due to Scranton Joe, but it will most likely come to backfire this year.
Sure, she could pick a running mate from the region, like Governor Shapiro. While the VP pick is important, the person at the top of the ticket is also important. I do not believe that Mike Pence alone would have won Trump the Rust Belt despite being picked partially for that purpose.
If she was smart, she would pick a running mate from the region. I am hearing Arizona Senator Mark Kelly’s name being tossed around. If she opts for a Sun Belt strategy it will be interesting to see the realignment. I don’t think a Sun Belt strategy would be worth it though.
Kamala is not very likable
Harris suffers from something that other liberal women in politics have suffered for years: the fact that she is not very likable. Hillary Clinton had this same problem in 2016, and we all saw how that went. Ironic that Clinton was one of Harris’ first defenders.
I don’t know what it is, but most women in politics on both sides of the aisle come off as very robotic. Just something I have observed. Yeah, there are exceptions, like Tulsi Gabbard or, if you are following her, Missouri Secretary of State candidate Valentina Gomez (who is a bit on the crazy side if you follow her X).
People might call this a misogynistic comment, though I cannot see how one can argue against it regarding Harris. She speaks very slowly to the point where I feel like she is trying not to stumble over her words.
Then you have the fact that she is just plain condescending. No better example can be given than when she was debating Joe Biden in the primaries and the topic of bussing was brought up. Seriously, the guy looked like he was about to cry.
The point is, to win the white working class, you have to have some sort of gusto and likability. Trump has his New York brashness; Biden had his folksy stories. That the Democratic establishment is going with Kamala makes me believe that they are either abandoning winning the WWC or that they are confident enough that they have that demographic locked in.
Also, her base is just plain annoying. Remember the Khive? Well they’re back, and just as annoying as they were in 2020. This girlboss slay queen tiktoker attitude might work in California, but it definitely isn’t working where she actually needs to win.
Kamala still has to answer for her mistakes
Then we have the largest strike against Kamala, which is the fact that she is still responsible for many of the administration’s failures. She can’t just be allowed to distance herself from Biden, as she will surely try to do.
Remember, before Mayorkas started acting like an idiot, Kamala was the one in charge of the border. Biden sent her down to Latin America to find the “root causes” of immigration. Of course, doing this while leaving the border wide open.
Joe Biden, had he chosen to continue running, could have passed the blame on the border crisis to Kamala, technically. However, the opposite cannot be true, as Kamala was the one who had actual oversight.
Given that Trump himself has made the border central to his campaign, I do not see Kamala being able to put up a sufficient argument to explain what we have seen for the past four years. Seriously, what is it?
If you really want to find the root causes of illegal immigration, fine. We should look for that, even though the answer is pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. However, we should also be able to secure the border at the same time.
The is no excusing the state of our southern border right now.
Kamala has come out in favor of further gun control
Liberals got supercharged by the abortion argument. You would think that Kamala would use that energy to win the election while keeping the opposing team as calm as possible. Well, she didn’t.
Gun control is to conservatives what abortion is for liberals. The fact that Kamala came out in favor of further restrictions on guns proves that she doesn’t realize what wins and loses nationally.
This would be like Trump coming out and endorsing a full federal abortion ban across all fifty states. It’s a losing issue outside of deep red areas. Same with national gun control, which is why such legislation has been limited.
With this, Trump could easily make the argument that she is trying to bring the California system to the entire country. This is also why I believed that DeSantis would have failed. The Florida and California systems are hated by certain aspects of the country for different reasons.
Given that Trump hasn’t come out and endorsed any federal bans on abortion yet Kamala has come out and endorsed federal gun bans, I can see rural areas being super energized on election day, which has been lagging in recent elections.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Kamala Harris is the spitting image of an out of touch, California coastal elitist. The only reason that she has received any strength at all is because she holds the title of Vice President.
Of course, we are seeing a bit of Harris fever right now in the polls. While this may seem alarming, I say we wait until the post-Biden dropout whirlwind wears off. I find it hard to believe that the person many said was the worst Vice President in American history suddenly has such massive popular support.
I am interested in what she will actually run on other than gun control. She talks a lot about Project 2025 but Trump isn’t even running on that platform. If it is just “Trump is a threat to our democracy” then consider her candidacy dead in the water.
I look forward to covering this election with you all.