Gravity and War (Warning: Political)

No, not that kind of gravity.

The kind of gravity I refer to is the significance of something. Typically, our ability to grasp it. You look at someone doing something very risky and you wonder if they grasp the gravity of the situation. You realize, sometimes correctly, that if only they understood the potential consequence of their actions, fully and completely, they would not engage in that behavior. If that’s the case, often another phrase will spawn when the actions inevitably lead to the consequences they weren’t expecting: “Hindsight is 20/20.”

Sometimes kids may fail to grasp the gravity of a situation if they’re playing with nerf guns in a room full of breakable lamps, vases, etc. When the lamp comes crashing down, their parents will rightly expect that lesson to stick with them so that they don’t make the same mistakes again. Usually they do internalize the lesson, and we’re right to expect them to. We’re certainly capable of learning from our mistakes.

So why not in matters of the State?

Why do we repeat the same mistakes over and over again, seemingly recognize where we went wrong, and then proceed to learn nothing, then worse yet repeat the same mistake again after a comically short period of time? For those in power the only rational explanation, at least as I see it, is that these are not mistakes but deliberate actions where the outcome is not only anticipated but hoped for. These are typically intelligent people who are well educated, with access to all the advisement and historical data anyone could ever dream of. They have information that isn’t available to the rest of us, which might tempt you to assume that they are acting in a way that may be innocent despite appearances. However, in matters of war there is no amount of intelligence, no amount of education, and no amount of gathered information that can answer the critical question of: “Then what?”

War has only had a couple of basic consistent outcomes throughout history. One is that it fucks over everyone involved eventually, usually sooner than later. The other is that the “then what” moments are never consistent, and they are never predictable.

We are currently on the cusp of another “then what” moment. There’s another chemical attack in Syria, which has one of the most shady and illogical explanations for an attack I’ve ever heard. It’s hard to understand why someone is on the verge of assured victory, their most dangerous foe openly declaring they are about to leave, you have an area surrounded, and you do the one thing, perhaps the only thing, that will jeopardize your imminent victory? This is why we should believe half of what we see and none of what we hear when it comes to explanations given to the general public. Still, whatever the real truth, whatever the real situation, the gravity of the situation is dire.

It’s clear that what Trump says and what he means in this instance doesn’t match up, but that could be for a multitude of reasons. What we do know, is that regardless of what happens next, no one can predict the outcome that follows. Do we shoot more missiles into an “empty” air base to appease the ones who profit from such things? There’s always a chance a few Russians don’t make it out in time, or a missile goes astray and hits an unintended target and kills civilians or, again, Russians. Then what? Do we think they’ll just let it go? In a matter of hours, everyone’s hands can get tied by one event after another until no one feels they can back out anymore.

Most big wars have started just this way. Events unfold where the gravity isn’t appreciated and the next thing you know millions of people are dead.

There isn’t much we can do about any of this directly. The decision makers are few and likely counting on the bad outcome they claim they aren’t expecting but know will likely occur. The one thing we can do is appreciate the gravity ourselves. We may not be able to stop them directly, but we can at least show them we aren’t suckers who will fall for the bullshit and cheer them on. We can at least do that, and sometimes that is enough.