Every cycle this kills me. You can pretty much determine the election 90% of the time just by looking at what party is in power, approval ratings, and the state of the economy.
The economy and inflation are far and away the top issues for voters this cycle in polling. Voters tend to favor the Republicans on both issues. I don't think more than a handful could actually describe either or explain what they expect any of the politicians to do about them. And of course none of the Republicans have really explained what they intend to do. It is all just vibes.
Meanwhile on actual substantive rights, where these politicians have direct and significant influence, voters are more or less inattentive. It is beyond absurd.
And Biden's approval rating has improved in recent months, but it is still pretty bad. Likewise the generic ballot is more or less even when it really needs to be +3-5
It isn't entirely impossible for a candidate to really overperform the President here, but I wouldn't consistently bank on it. Voters don't tend to behave that rationally.