The only question was about margin. It seems that Harris is slightly ahead in the nation vote and the vote in the battleground states (which will decide the election) is up for grabs. But if I were a Democrat this would keep me up at night. We cannot be certain of the polls.
The polls underestimated Republican strength in 2016 and 2020 and Democrat strength in 2022.
Nobody is sure why that is the case but the theory in the article makes sense - that there is a group of less educated voters who only come out for presidential elections and vote for Trump. If that is the case then Harris will need a bigger lead in the polls if she is to win.
I also think that it is possible that pollsters have learned how to compensate for the "hidden Trump" voter or that people are more free to answer truthfully in surveys that they will support Trump and the current polls are correct. Bottom line is that nobody can be fully confident that their favorite polls are accurate and we will not find out until after the election. I do remember polls being more accurate before Trump and maybe they again will be after Trump.
I guess polls can say what you want them to say. The latest Rasmussen poll has Trump at 49% and Harris at 46%. It isn't so much the national polls that matter anyway as it is the polls in the key battleground states. Most of those are within 2% (according to The New York Times poll..or whoever's poll they are using). Should be interesting.
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