Monthly pound fundamental forecast
Everyone needs a rest. Markets are no exception. The fatigue that has accumulated after the GBPUSD rapid rally during the first two decades of May results in the pair's consolidation at the very end of spring. Due to the small number of economic events, the pound prefers to react to the situation following the news from the US. Investors digest information about the FOMC reasoning for the US QE program tapering and wonder if they should be afraid of repeating the story of the 2013 taper tantrum?
Sterling is changing bullish drivers like a woman changes clothes. In the second half of 2020, the pound has strengthened due to market confidence that a Brexit agreement will be concluded. In the first half of 2021, GBP rallied thanks to accelerated vaccinations, expectations of faster GDP growth over the US and other peers, and the belief that the Bank of England will begin to normalize monetary policy ahead of the Fed. The list of the pound's advantages does not end there.
Dynamics of the trade-weighted pound rate
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