Prediction Markets - Using a Modified Super Bowl Square as a Gateway Market

In simple terms a prediction market is a market where the market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. Prediction markets along with curation markets seem to be gathering a huge head of steam at the moment but do we really know what they are?

I'm not going to try to explain the intricacies of their theory but I'd like to show some examples and provide a case use that can be executed right now to easily get your friends, family, and coworkers to understand and participate in the idea.

The most common form of predictive market is gambling, specifically sports gambling. The odds are constantly adjusting based on the predictions of the masses. This doesn't exactly alter the cost of the bet but instead alters the reward. Prediction markets can be used for any type of prediction including economics, weather, healthcare, and insurance. There are few prediction market platforms that use cryptocurrency and blockchain technology including Augur, Gnosis, Delphi, and Vega.

Now, how do we get someone who could care less about prediction markets to care so much that they are willing to participate in the predictions and the payments? The Super Bowl, or any football game, is the perfect vehicle to teach prediction markets. More specifically the Super Bowl square.

The Super Bowl square is a game coworkers use to randomly pick the final score of the Super Bowl. A 10x10 grid is created with the top row containing the numbers 0-9 and the left column also containing the numbers 0-9. The horizontal axis represents Team A and the vertical axis represents Team B. The numbers represent the last number of each teams score. For example if the final score was Team A 23 and Team B 7, the winning box would be the 23/7 square.

A normal Super Bowl square is not a prediction market since each of the 100 boxes is equally priced and purchased prior to the random assignment of the score values. In order to make it a prediction market each box would be preassigned a score and it would be purchased via an auction. The most likely to occur scores should theoretically garner the highest bids.

Now, to explain this to your friends. Tell them you're going to do a Super Bowl square but each box is going to be auctioned off instead of equally priced and that the scores are not randomly assigned. Winner takes all.