"13 Keys To The White House" by an American historian Allan Jay Lichtman

An American historian Allan Jay Lichtman who has accurately projected nine US election outcomes has now offered commentary on the Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris contest.

Known as the "Nostradamus of US presidential elections," Allan Lichtman bases his forecasts on his "13 keys to the White House."
The 77-year-old American University historian uses a 13-question true-or-false procedure to predict the outcome of an incumbent party's loss if six or more of the keys point in that direction. It would prevail if fewer than six people opposed it.

The keys evaluate a number of variables, such as societal stability, economic performance, and the charisma of the incumbent. By carefully examining data going back to the time of former US President Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has created a forecasting model that goes beyond the standard techniques employed by conventional psephologists.

The following are the 13 keys he developed for the White House:

Party Mandate: The incumbent party wins more seats in the US House of Representatives following the midterm elections than it did in the previous one.

Contest for Nomination: The current party's nomination is not facing any serious opposition.

Incumbency: The party in power is represented by the president in office.

Third-party Factor: No notable independent or third-party campaigns are running.

Short-term Economic Stability: There is no recession in the economy while elections are taking place.

Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita GDP growth that is either the same as or higher than the mean growth of the two terms that come before it.

Scandal-Free: There have been no significant scandals during the current government.

Foreign/Military Mistakes: Under the current administration, there have been no notable missteps in international or military matters.

Military/Foreign Triumphs: The current government has notable military or foreign policy accomplishments.

Charm of the Incumbent: The candidate of the ruling party exudes charm or is regarded as a national hero.

Challenger Appeal: The candidate of the other party isn't charismatic or a national hero.

Policy Shift: Significant changes to national policy are implemented by the current administration.

Social Stability: Throughout the tenure, there isn't any protracted social upheaval.