Price Predictions Consolidated

There are so many views on price predictions and current trends across crypto and I thought I would share my thoughts that I have consolidated from my research and watching the market and listening to the news stories every day. Maybe even use this blog to keep a record of my evolving thoughts so I can look back on it.

To put my views in perspective, I like to think I am a hybrid day trader and hodler as I have some crypto in wallets that I promise myself I wont touch and the rest I trade between crypto pairs. Although some people might argue that you can only really be one or the other. And I am most likely in denial if I disagree with that opinion, let be honest I'm a trader at heart.

I watched an interesting view from Cedric Dahl on youtube about knowing the type of trader you are based on your confidence on the future of crypto and the technology and if you have a solid plan to realise your goals or not. I fit into the category of being confident in the future of the crypto but have a mixed view on what will be successful.

At this point its easy to be conservative and sticking with bitcoin. I'm not a purist as I trade other coins but I can certainly appreciate the safety in bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price: I have listened to so many price predictions and for now the best people to listen to if you are interested in the short term price are the technical analysis chart enthusiasts that look at the chart independently of the news or their own biased views or sneaky intentions.

My favourite is TradeDevil on You Tube as he acknowledges his bullish view and tries to find the high probability predictions for both a downward and upward trend. This is a good example of Elliot Wave Trading which is a method of finding a common pattern in trading that helps to pick high probability buying and selling opportunities. The fact that he indicates probabilities of the both upward and downward trends gives you the opportunity to decide what you think is more probable.

I also listen to Tone Vays who is a big name in the industry and a little more controversial with some fairly strong views. The reason I like his views on price predictions is that he also has the opinion that chart trends aren't as manipulated by the news as we think and the trend gets back on track if there is any small effect. He is right a lot of the time which helps, but its based on technical analysis using a different method of picking trends and the probabilities of reversals in the market. He has a morning brief show on youtube that I find is really informative and Tone always finds a way to trash news stories and its effect on price.

Short Term Bitcoin Prediction - In summary of all the current sentiment and analysis I have starting shorting bitcoin to wait for the lows that even the most bullish of people are seeing as a high probability in the short term. This is a risky move and takes a lot of will power to not buy back when a small rebound happens and the fomo kicks in. This will be the first time I've left my emotion at the door to trust in what I have learnt about the market and we will see how that goes.. I am looking for a conservative short selling at the $7 levels and starting to look under the $6k USD area to buy back in. Experience from Watching the markets tells me that it could start a chain reaction at those lows sinking it even lower, however there is unpredictable murky water once it turns irrational so I'm sticking to the plan. I guarantee you will lose more times than you win trying to wait or pick the perfect low or perfect high.

Long Term Bitcoin Predictions: There are so many views on this with some people saying 50,000 by the end of 2020 and someone.. saying 1 million by 2020. I think the thing to take away from all this is that most are confident that this is only just starting.

Only trade what you can afford to lose in the short term! That was a note to myself more than anything..