PUSHING PROBABILITY

in probability •  8 years ago 



You flip a coin, what are the odds of it landing on heads or tails? about 50/50 right?  To push probability is to increase your odds of a specific goal or task happening for you.  Let's say your objective is to land a job working for a company that pays you double what you're making now?  If you were to walk into that company right now with zero preparation, what are the odds of you getting a job with that company? .. pretty low, right?  Let's give it a number and say for example those odds are about 3% that you might get the job.

Well, you can increase those odds.  You can modify the variables so that the odds are working for you.  Let's say you do some research on the company - now you're at 7% for knowing more about the company than you did before.  On top of that, you build your credentials for a specific position within that company by getting a certain certification - now you're at 28%.  The odds are invisible, but this percentage is changing whether you realize it or not.  You adjust your resume so that it's geared towards that position within their company - now you're at 44%.  You dress nice for the interview - now you're at 52%.  You practice for the interview with friends as if you were being asked questions by the owner - now you're at 67% chance of getting that specific job, which is a whole lot better than 3%. 

This is just an example of pushing probability and can be applied to virtually any aspect of your life.  Consider a goal you want to achieve - push that probability  

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A little gambling trick I like to use for roulette is to bet on streaks. If you were to flip a coin 100 times it would come up about 50/50 heads and tails but within those flips you will find many streaks of tails tails tails heads heads heads heads.

To apply this to roulette and bring your odds closer to 50/50 pick your color before even entering the casino. When you get to the table, wait until you see that color come up once and then bet on it to come up again. You are betting on a streak occurring as they naturally tend to do.

Of course if you really want to push probability head on over to the Blackjack table to count some high and low cards. Make sure to bring a stack of $1 chips to help track the aces ;)

Absolutely. I speak of that same concept often. AKA "Martingale"
Veerrrry fascinating, and I respect people who understand that concept as well as there are many who will just never get it.