Do you love to say "I told you so!"?
Do you like to make predictions and forget when you were wrong but boast about the ones you were right about?
Do you have beliefs about what politician or political party is better, global warming, what can you achieve ( or not ) in this world, how much people like you ( or don't) and feel that you are RIGHT?
Well: bad news! You suffer from confirmation biases.
GOOD NEWS: WE ALL DO!
( "relative good news" maybe?)
So what is this confirmation bias I talk about?!?
From Wikipedia:
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
You see, the human mind is a very faulty machine that produces countless biases and misfires. The spookiest thing is that you don't even know. I know I don't! I walk around thinking I'm in control of my thoughts and actions and using my "rationality!" to deal with situations in the best possible way I can. No way my brain is fooling me into thinking this.
Oh wait! It totally does.
I recommend reading [this article[(https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xLm9mgJRPvmPGpo7Q/the-cognitive-science-of-rationality) as it's a great introduction to all this if you did not read much about it so far. Then "Predictably irrational" book is a MUST in my opinion.
Anyway, what happens is that we love to be right!
I was reading an article today about an issue and I was very much in agreement with whatever that person was saying. Oh yes, I think so too! Oh yeah, mmm, so I am right! At the end of the article I was ready to ninja-send it to all my friends and enemies with a subtitle of "AHA!!" and a very satisfied grin emoji. Then I stopped.
Oh fuck! My confirmation bias is flaring up. Seriously, the sweet music of being content with myself is so alluring, a siren call to abandon all rationality and just munch on this sweet sweet nectar of "being right". Seriously, articles like those are like crack-cocaine for me.
Well, time to do the opposite and read some stupid comments that disagree with the article and a few articles that disagree with the author and see what happens.
A simple instruction to "think about alternatives" can promote resistance to overconfidence and confirmation bias. In one study, subjects asked to generate their own hypotheses are more responsive to their accuracy than subjects asked to choose from among pre-picked hypotheses.16 Another study required subjects to list reasons for and against each of the possible answers to each question on a quiz prior to choosing an answer and assessing the probability of its being correct. This process resulted in more accurate confidence judgments relative to a control group.17
It seems that it's a good strategy! Now this doesn't mean that you are never right or that whenever you are right you are fooling yourself. But you need to trust yourself a little less than you are ready to do.
And remember when something confirms too many of your beliefs, you're probably editing stuff out.
Take the blindfold of..or just munch on the NECTAR. That's an option to!
Exactly, just like when people are analyzing a crypto investment. They will only seek the data that supports the opinion they have going in.
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I doi that too!
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interesting read. especially in combination with other biases, I think the effect can be pretty bad...
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It can be and it is. But we can always work to improve :) I highly recommend the books mentioned in the article linked!
thanks for your comment!
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maybe I'll check them out later. thanks! and you are very welcome
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we need to fight biases even in paradise :D
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No. I don't like to say I'm right. I think it is very much arrogance and self-dominance above others, and I am not a boss/leader in attitude.
I'm not the boss of anything.
I don't even work for a living too often at this point.
I don't even pretend to want to work either. Or bother to hide these sad facts anymore, apparently, not even by omission. So yeah. I don't see myself pursuing any leadership roles professionally in 2018 as part of my big picture strategy of avoiding all opportunities generally in the future. I've made it to age 33 without capitalizing on my abilities or leveraging who I know to any useful purpose and I just don't think it's a good idea to make any drastic changes this last in the game. I'm going to maintain course, do very little, and coast into my retirement and eventual death with nothing concrete accomplished, and an absolute nightmare episode of writer's block in store for whoever has to come up with my eulogy or obituary, or at least I hope I can pull that off, fingers crossed.
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I am not sure if that is satire but I laughed :))
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After a lifetime of TV very few know how to think for themselves. Independent research is rare as people are spoonfed information constantly. Moral relativism is everywhere. Many are waking to their mind control...but all too slowly.
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hear hear!
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