I am writing this to present what I hope you will consider out of the box thinking. This post is not intended to attack any race. It is not intended to bash Black Lives Matter. It is purely presenting some thoughts, some speculations, and perhaps some things we might want to look into and see if there is any merit to them.
It arises from a saying a friend of mind is really fond of saying:
Correlation does not equal causation.
The general idea here is that because you see elevated evidence of X when event A occurs that X may not necessarily be the cause of A. There could also by Y, and Z elevated evidence that might not be noticed if people fixate on X and ASSUME it is the cause of A without looking further. In other words just because there are elevated factors when an event occurs does not meant those factors were the reason that event happened.
Now let's apply this to the reason Black Lives Matter was founded. It was founded because there IS a elevated number of deaths by police for black people on a percentage basis. More whites are killed by cops every year than blacks, but on a percentage of population basis there is a distinct DIFFERENCE between blacks versus whites on a population percentage basis. Blacks are killed more often by cops in those cases.
So this correlation has lead to the idea that it is about race, and that it is racism that is leading to these events.
I began asking myself if perhaps this was leaping to a "correlation being causation" situation before considering other factors.
I have my own untested, speculative hypothesis I would like to pose. It does not eliminate the fact that there is a problem. Instead it seeks to clarify and point out an alternative correlation that may actually be the more likely causation.
What could help with determining any validity to this hypothesis I am going to propose would be collection of additional data. Someone may have already come up with this data, and they may or may not have thought to put it into the context that this hypothesis will propose.
- We should map out where these deaths occur. I am suspecting we will see a lot of clustering and the bulk of these will tend to cluster in certain areas.
- We should also map out all other police encounter fatalities including whites and other minorities. I suspect a lot of them will cluster in these same areas.
My untested hypothesis at this point is as follows:
The actual cause for elevated fatalities in interactions with law enforcement is due to the culture, and behavioral identity of neighborhoods or regions rather than race.
I was born in 1970. I was in Junior High when Rap and Break Dancing hit the scenes. I remember it quite well. I like everyone else thought break dancing was amazing (I still do). I wasn't into rap, but I was there when it was new and it has evolved a huge amount since that time.
Yet, I do remember making up my own rap lyrics. Back then we always threw in drug references, and we tried to make it as thuggish as we could. We were not doing this to be assholes. This was simply a thematic pattern we had noticed for the music. It was much like the joke about if you play country music backwards the guy gets his dog back, his wife who divorced him is back married to him, and his truck is no longer broke down. Most people chuckle as they instinctively get this. Well mentioning the drugs, and the thug like things, with throwing in HO, and HOMIES back then was similar to talking about country that way. It was a very common theme with the music.
1988
NWA - Fuk Da Police
1990
Ice-T - Cop Killer (Lyrics)
I actually saw that in concert myself. This was not a one of a kind event. This was a pretty common theme with many rap, and in this case rap/punk/thrash metal type music.
Non-Music Factors
The music was definitely popular and there were lots of infamous gang style killings, and there are jokes that being a criminal gives a rapper more street credentials.
Yet this wasn't the only cultural changes that were occurring. There was actually quite the cultural explosion and so much of it was centered around rap, but it also was centered around drugs, and the rise of the Crips and the Bloods. People were hearing about people being killed for wearing the wrong colors all over the nation. They even made quite a lot of movies showing this and focusing on the gang members as the heroes.
Colors (1988) - Drive-By Scene (1/10) | Movieclips - 1988
The thing is these movies were inspired by a movement, and a growing attitude and growing culture.
It did tend to cluster in certain places, and it also happened all over the nation but most people like one of my daughters that dressed this way, tried to act this way a bit, etc were more wanna be.
To me it looked like elevating people that are thugs and criminals to positions of admiration.
Mental Simulation Challenge
Now consider this cultural movement growing and expanding. Over time what do you think should logically happen to their interactions with law enforcement? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.
Over time what do you think should logically happen among the people in such cultural areas? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.
In fact this is what we see. Not only are the black deaths by law enforcement higher, the number of blacks killing blacks are also higher. In fact, black people are in far more danger from other black people statistically than they are police.
This cultural/neighborhood hypothesis actually explains both of those.
Over time what do you think should logically happen to non-black people that live in such cultural areas? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.
I am suspecting the number of white people killed by police is actually higher in these regions as well. I am suspecting non-black deaths in the area are likely higher than in other areas.
Basically I believe that culture fits more of the evidence than race does. If this is the case then Black Lives Matter is actually pointing at the wrong cause. If they believe that people should be able to act like a thug and cops should ignore their activities and IF this hypothesis has any merit then the true name of the movement should be Thug Lives Matter. It doesn't have anything to do with race if the hypothesis is correct. The only racial correlation is that the culture began in black communities, but it is not only black people that act this way.
That doesn't justify the twitchy generalizations that cops make, when they target people that are none of these things. Yet, I consider that a symptom of the results of the growth of the type of traits this culture seems to admire.
This type of mentality seems like oil being thrown against fire when it comes to law enforcement. It revels in the encounters, it puts them on pedestals. It elevates the thug to hero status.
Isn't it only natural that if perceiving thugs as the heroes that thug like activities would increase?
In such environments I'd expect Law Enforcement fatalities to be higher. Though I'd also expect all other types of fatalities to likewise be higher.
I have zero doubt there are some racist cops. I've met some myself. I've also met a lot that are not. I also have no doubt that green cops are likely pretty paranoid and twitchy when they have to enter dangerous neighborhoods.
There is one good thing about this hypothesis if it is true. You can't change your race. You can change your culture. If cultural practices increase danger then it is your choice as to whether you wish to continue those practices or not. There is also a nice thing about this. You have a choice. If you choose to continue the practices then you also must accept the consequences. That is of course only the case if this hypothesis proves to have any merit.
Consider it food for thought. Thinking outside of the box, and not jumping to a haste generalization.
I've thrown out my theory before concerning the Democrat party and it's subversion of poor black communities in order to maintain welfare-voting plantations; this is addition to identity politics
Media collusion with the Democratic Party is also a well discussed theory.
From media springs culture...
I hate to resteem you so often, but you are making the points I'd like to be making in a more coherent fashion than I'd be writing in
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I understand. I find myself resteeming a bunch of @cupidzero posts. So I get it.
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LOL exact same thing! He has great stuff!
For the reader who hasn't checked out @cupidzero, get thee over there now, you won't regret it!
I think I'll just give up on my supposed hesitance to resteem, since I have been doing so often in reality anyway
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Wow, thanks you guys. You both rock in my book and have provided me with tons of inspiration and insight from other perspectives.
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You're right, and it has been pointed out in other places that until thug culture came along, the black community was doing quite well and were abnormally law-abiding. There is also culture among cops, though. There is no doubt that in my city (and province) the police tend to be a bit quick to pull the trigger, and in most cases, the person they shoot is black. Whether it is because they are racist, or because the person behaves in a threatening or crazy manner (the most recent case being someone who was black and had mental issues), is hard to say. You are right that it may not be as simple as A leads to B. As my vet says, when a cat gets liver disease, he gets nauseous after eating, and he ends up blaming the food. To the cat it is obvious; but in reality there is another non-visible underlying cause.
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I've met my share of asshole cops. They definitely are out there. They may not actually be racist, though some of them definitely are. A lot of them are quick to make haste generalizations (stereotypes) and react to such things. However, that isn't really surprising. They are trained to watch for suspicious behavior. Trying to do this can lead people to believe they SEE something just because someone else in that neighborhood or who looked like them did something in the past. Culture cannot explain it all, just as race cannot. Though I do think it is likely the culture and neighborhoods fit the actual symptoms better than race does.
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And in other countries cops are trained to see the person that needs help.
Strangely in those other countries both killings of cops and killings by cops is much lower. And I won't even mention the (until recently) famously gunless "Bobbies".
This is culture too - police culture.
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Yes, but that doesn't explain the increase in black percentages here. That does explain the violence of police against everyone, but that isn't what Black Lives Matter is trying to bring attention to. So what is your point?
That factor would not explain the fact blacks are being killed by cops at a proportionally higher percentage rate (though whites still are killed more by them in total). So what you just said would not explain the higher percentage at all.
It seems more like someone trying to defend the norm without even truly reading, pausing, and thinking.
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As you may reread my post you will see that I quoted the training. I did not quote any racial differences, because my post was not about that, but a different sort of culture.
But if you want, training and corps culture also influences the racial difference.
White man on the wheel of the car?
Make a friendly face and talk to him.
Black male?
Gun out and shout "get out of the car!"
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Yep, and how often have those cops had to deal with neighborhoods where people say fuck the police, kill cops, and that drive by shootings happen occasionally?
I did say they were twitchy.
That again is a symptom. It is still wrong, it is not a cause.
There are SOME racist cops. I've encountered them. Yet I've also encountered a lot that were not at all racist.
So could this be also a case of the media over hyping the racist incidents so much that it makes us perceive cops overall as racist simply due to that being all the news bothers to put a lot of emphasis on?
That is indeed a possibility as black cops apparently act very similar when it comes to black deaths as well.
I am not ANYWHERE trying to justify the actions of the cops. I am trying to look at what may have lead to this. I do think there is something going on other than race, as depending upon where you live in the country these things don't happen even if you are black. It seems to cluster.
In some parts of our country having long hair and looking like you smoke marijuana is likely to get you harassed by the cops a lot more than your skin color. :) I do have a lot of friends that have been hit by this from where I grew up.
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I would also expect culture to be a component of causation. What I would like to see is the overlay of shooting locations and poverty levels globally. This could also help cast more light on cultural differences as a causal factor.My gut suspects that poverty is what gives rise to organized crime and sets a vicious circle into motion. I would be curious if that held for other organized crime groups, like the Italian mafia etc. Great food for thought!
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That could be as well. Yet I've also lived in poverty quite a few times in my life and didn't really see that happening. I didn't live in places of poverty that also had big drug problems, perhaps that is the combination?
Actually when I was in poverty it was pretty rural locations. So poverty plus population density would make some sense in that regard.
Good point. This could make culture, AND race less of a factor.
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This is definitely a factor young men look for archetypes and when these are coupled with a denunciation of a group(cops, white people) as evil extra violence will occur and what's worse is it may be lauded by the community.
Being born in the same era I also remember when thugs preferred their male musical artist's to wear make-up and women's underwear(non sequitor).
Although thugs will be thugs I have always been amazed at how much effort they expend on moral justification and how sensitive they are to moral judgement(from people they consider their peers anyways). So when they can present their violence in a favourable light to themselves and others this multiplies their propensity for violence
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Hahaha.... I remember that too.
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I think there's another aspect to this that you may have missed.
That would be the definite militarization of the police.
No longer "peace officers", at some point they became "law enforcement" and that drives a wedge between communities and the people who used to be there to "protect & serve". There is a definite us versus them mentality that pervades law enforcement.
I don't think it's an accident.
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If you intend that you should not start with a picture showing non-whites only in violent stances, because that sets the tone of the whole post.
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Nope... The initial image was about the Crips and the Bloods. That is a cultural environment as is explained in the article. Now I could hunt for some images white people also in that culture, but honestly I was just trying to think of some good examples of an attitude of violence. That the people happen to be black in those images does not mean the article itself is about race, or attacking race. If you choose to view the image as that then that is your problem, not mine. I actually add images and videos to my posts AFTER I have written the text. Do I sit there and think, "Oh I better not use this, someone might think X?" Sometimes I do, but generally I don't.
So the images were added AFTER the text was written. The truth of the matter is most people don't read walls of text here. Some do, but most do not. So I add images usually for that reason. Sometimes the images end up being important to the post.
That ones only importance is that it shows the Crips and the Bloods as some people may not have a clue who they are.
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One of them here.
Still, if it is about violence then there are a lot of picture without people at all.
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Did you even read the article? I assume you did. The article specifically mentions the crips and the bloods, it explains the culture. Those photos are of crips and bloods. It is relevant.
I am not trying to create a safe space post for you. I am adding photos that fit what I was talking about. Whether you choose to add additional context and fixate on them again is not my problem.
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About 1000 words after the starting picture. Hard to make a connection.
And that sentence dos not really explain them. You can only guess they are a rapper group?
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They are opposing gangs... large ones. One wears blue, and liked to use blue bandanas to identify their members. The other red.
There were cases in the 80s and 90s of people getting shot that were not in the gangs just because they happened to have a bandana of one of those colors.
Word got around the country to be careful about wearing blue and red bandanas.
They were (and I think still are) two very large gangs.
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And yes, I made an assumption people would know who the crips and bloods were. That was a mistake on my part and it kind of is required for that entire initial photo to make sense.
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Never make assumptions :P
Especially about how famous things from your country a quarter century ago are today in a different part of the world ;)
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Well it is easy to say "Never make assumptions", but we all do in some occasions.
There are probably a lot of people in the U.S. that don't even know who the Crips and the Bloods are. :) Adult age even, young adults, but still adults.
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So if I had explained that image was the Crips and Bloods by adding some text to it that might have made that image make a lot more sense to you in relation to the article?
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Can't help noticing you left out one important statistic:
That's right! White-on-white crime, pretty much the same as the darker-skinned variety!
Fact is, people kill other people for all kinds of reasons. Most of those tend to be favoured by proximity. I'm sure you're aware that whenever a woman dies, the first suspect is inevitably her husband/boyfriend. I'm sure you're also aware that most marriages are not interracial. Add that to the fact that, according to the FBI, just over 50 percent of murder victims are killed by someone they know. 24.8 percent are killed by an actual family member.
Just saying.
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Actually I didn't intentionally leave that one out. I haven't seen that one. Thanks for sharing. :)
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I'm aware. Coulda phrased that better. My bad.
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Also... @cupidzero gave an interesting response. You see I wasn't actually trying to attack anything. I was trying to get people to think about other factors besides race.
He came up with the idea it would be interesting to overlay deaths and clustering with poverty levels. It may be less about culture and race, but actually be a factor of poverty.
This is a good idea. I didn't consider this as though I've lived in poverty many times in my life growing up, I didn't do so in a heavy population density area.
So what if these clusters occur in areas of poverty that also have a high population density?
I also am not trying to justify police activity as some people (not you) seemed to fixate on. I am simply trying to think outside the box as I actually think there is more than RACE at issue here.
I believe there may be factors other than race that could possibly explain the abnormal deaths percentage.
If poverty plus high population density is a factor we should see problems whether it is white, black, brown that predominantly occupies that neighborhood.
It also could be a bit of all three Race (some cops are racist, but black cops kill black people too), Cultural, and Poverty...
Anyway thanks for the graph I honestly hadn't seen that one or I wouldn't have thought the black vs black deaths was unusual.
As to interracial marriages. Those have been increasing in number for awhile now (a few generations). For a long time they were CULTURALLY unaccepted. That has been changing over time.
As to the 50% and 24.8%, I had heard that.
This was actually a great and useful response you gave. It was one of the most informative and best I received. Thank you.
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Glad to hear that. That term "black on black" whether in reference to crime in general or homicide in particular really really burns my ass. I mean, Chinese people in China tend to kill other Chinese people? Shock! Surprise! Who'da thunk it!
So yeah.
EDIT: I have answered @cupidzero.
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Yeah I was under the impression (perhaps wrongly so - will wait for the edit to your post you offered to @cupidzero) that black on black killings were higher per population percentage too. If that graph you provided is indeed accurate then that wouldn't seem to be the case.
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I tried looking this one up and couldn't find it, is that chart based on per 100,000 population or absolute numbers? Would you be so kind as to source the write-up please? Makes a huge difference in how to read it.
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I'll edit this comment and add that in a sec.
EDIT: alright, here we go - FBI stat came from here --> https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded/expandhomicidemain
The chart comes from here --> https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/race-and-homicide-in-america-by-the-numbers
Several interesting ones there too but the pics would not only burn through my data allotment, they'd also make this comment long enough to be post on its own.
That said, while I was going through my search history to find this, I discovered there are much more recent stats (specifically going up to 2015) from the FBI ---> https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2015.xls
Also from the FBI. Salient points:
Total Homicides with White Victims: 3167
Homicides with White Victims and White Perpetrators: 2574
Total Homicides with Black Victims: 2664
Homicides with Black Victims and Black Perpetrators: 2380
Thus, in 2015, according to the FBI (and if I am reading those statistics correctly) there were literally fewer black-on-black murders than there were white-on-white murders.
I will concede, looking at that table, that there were more black-killer-white-victim murders than the reverse. In the interest of fairness.
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Thanks for that! So the data from the US News graphic is absolute numbers... I hope I am understanding that wrong. Looking at the FBI data you provided.... can that be real? Please correct me if I am wrong, and I hope I am.
Using the most recent data from the final link you provided (2015) and considering the population base as taken from Wikipedia (2017), so the total population data is off a bit, but not by much:
White population: 223,553,265 & white-on-white murders: 2574 = 1 w-o-w murder per 86,850 people, i.e. ca. 1.15 w-o-w murders per 100,000 population.
Black population: 40,695,277 & black-on-black murders: 2380 = 1 b-o-b murder per 17,098 people, i.e. ca. 5.9 b-o-b murders per 100,000 population.
Am I reading that wrong? I hope so. If not, that is just... horrible. Okay, checking my poverty thesis for possible mitigating factors ... Poverty rate among whites: 9%; blacks: 24% according to KFF. Higher rates of poverty also seem to correlate with more r-o-r murders... Hmm... there is more going on than I can account for and I don't want to go too deep down that rabbit hole right now, it's just too depressing.
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That's fair enough. At least you're looking deeper into the statistics now. And yes, I saw that too (absolute numbers versus proportion of population)
Of course, I could go a step further while coming full circle and ask why the cop-on-perp kill percentages differ so drastically by racial demographic (even if we were to ignore actual guilt or lack thereof) or why, despite the similarity in absolute numbers for crimes where the perp is known, the imprisonment rate by demographic also differs so drastically.
And yes, it is depressing. It really really is.
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@losinthesauce also gave a good response with something I need to check out and a thesis by a black man that seems to be pointing out the same thing I am talking about. I haven't had a chance to watch it/listen to it yet, but you might want to check it out.
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I live in Korea, and in Korea I am against
It's something I can not imagine.
Koreans do not favor multiculturalism,
Be unfriendly...
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It is true the culture and environment in life come into play from one's actions, interesting post @dwinblood, have a nice day
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are you familiar with the work of Thomas Sowell?
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I like Thomas Sowell's video about the irish in America, after watching that and his other videos about black culture before the 50's I have concluded (not sure whether this was Mr. Sowell's conclusion or not but I felt that this was where he was leading) that it was black culture learning from the irish culture that caused most of the cultural problems facing the black community. I'm of course just talking about internal problems and not denying that there are external problems as well.
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No I am not. Do you have a link?
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His book "Black Rednecks and White Liberals" supports your thesis that culture is operative in socioeconomic disparities. Further, he supports that American blacks inherited a redneck/cracker culture that goes back as far as 16th century Scotland.
Sowell himself is black. He's an economist, and a former Marxist, now a free market advocate. His book "Basic Economics" is a classic.
I listened to the first book here:
Basic Economics here:
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Thanks I appreciate this. I'll watch it here sometime today.
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Your argument is that cops aren't the ones that are to blame, but the culture of black people. It's as if cops don't have a long history of lynchings, and grave injustice especially towards the black people. There's nothing to argue over here, it's not NWA that is to blame, it's the culture of racist slave catching patrols that preceded the cops we know today that is to blame, wholly and singularly.
You think that the history of racism, of institutional discrimination to the point that black people aren't afforded the status of sovereign Americans even to this days, but only "US Citizens", which is nothing more than a title for federal employees, wards of the state, in other words they aren't secured any protections over their rights by the Bill of Rights, but only the privileges or Civil Rights, somehow that culture somehow started to go away with MLK.
The only crooks, the only criminals aren't the "thugs" but the actual thugs that are police, that are military in equipment and appearance, denoting the illegitimacy of their authority simply by their dress and not just on their treasonous acts, serving the corporation and not the people, once you swear an oath to a master you cannot serve another, and in swearing oaths to The Constitution of the United States they have therefore declared their support of a foreign master, a corporation, and not the people, who's government services are secured through the Constitution for the united States.
http://annavonreitz.com/writofquowarranto.pdf
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Nope. Never said that. If that is how you interpreted it then I don't speak your language. ;)
Also that is pretty stupid. Not sorry.
Culture is a collection of behaviors and ideas. It can be practiced by any color. Black people have lots of different cultures. In fact they had very different cultures that are still around BEFORE this modern thug worship one arose.
Nice try though.
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You don't say, black communities began the culture of thugs?
Higher than what? Why even be critical, when the evident is .. obvious, you blame the culture of black people for this, yet you have not even touched on "police culture", you essentially excused police to "a few that do this".
Fuck this shit, that's first and foremost, and you did blame black culture for the crimes and racism that is perpetrated and has been perpetrated for a very long time.
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Nope I didn't. It isn't black culture. It is a culture. It started in black communities but MANY people not black also follow it. Culture is not something a race owns unless it involves racism.
I said that culture began in black cultures but I also very clearly say it IN THE ARTICLE ITSELF it is no longer just a culture of black people. This is clearly stated in the article. You are seeing what you want to see and selectively ignoring other factors.
Kind of like a fake news move there... let's edit here, take this, he said it started in a black community, let's just stop right there and attack. Read the damn thing, pause, think, then reply.
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You didn't say that cops aren't to blame but the culture of black people when you said:
Logically, naturally the cops aren't at fault.
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I see cops as a symptom. You are using a generalization fallacy there. I never said anywhere that cops were justified in their actions. I am trying to think about what could lead to it. Not all cops have that problem. There are also places in the country where these things don't happen the same.
Yet again, read the damn article, think instead of trying to fixate on defending the status quo idea.
Contribute to the thought process rather than attacking. Add something that adds to the hypothesis either by disproving it, or by adding other factors to measure.
Instead of simply grabbing onto little miscellaneous pieces of the article and trying to attack.
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In essence measure this:
We hold these truths to be self evident,
Therefore if they have trespassed on their very own contract, how much of a stretch is it to point the finger at the real culprits and say "racist assholes", "racist pretenders". You're arguing the audaciously racist and the actual slave mentality of "cops are justified" each time you say shit like "cops are the symptoms, I believe". If you refuse to acknowledge that not only is the cause correlated by the history, and the facts such as their illegitimacy, both from a common sense point of view but also from their actual illegitimacy by the actions that they perform, and also lastly by their words, they have sworn allegiance to a corporation and to protect it's CITIZENS, where as that is the extent of the federal jurisdiction, so the moment it is overstepped they have essentially performed treason against the People, so there is no confusion about good faith as we are flying the flag of war, not the civil flag of peace. This is singularly the most important point, for if there is no legitimacy to cops, how do you justify excusing them in any capacity therefor, they are not just culpable and complicit but more than likely directed and instructed to carry out racism, as is everyone who is involved, either in finances or legal and all in between, and rears it's ugly head in the social aspect.
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