Many have been journalists within the United Kingdom who predicted the recession in England in 2017 and in fact start at the end of the year with the coincidence of the increase in interest rates up to 0.50% on mortgages. The results of the Brexit.
"The UK has a 50% chance of falling into recession within 18 months." theguardian 3 august 2016.
"Three reasons why the UK could be in recession." forbes Frances Coppola, June 30, 2017.
"Before the real estate recession in 2008, the states had a combined reserve of almost $ 60 billion. The impact of the recession on state budget stabilization funds exceeded $ 117 billion. "
Before the recession - the first real estate bubble between 2007 and 2009 that affected mainly Northern Rock Bank, only the deposits were insured, the bank's shares were not returned or paid. They managed to convince the public not to take out their money because there would not be for everyone and that the British state would cover the payments, that calmed the owners of the deposits.
This time it could be different, the general symptomatology is panic, it has been demonstrated with the capital outflows of Banco Popular, and people know that in the future they will not be able to respond to the panic of all the banks at the same time. As much as in Argentina, they would promise to pay those deposits over time, and in that case, they were only 10% in 10 years. A similar negotiation came Santander and other banks with the Madoff scam. A bank for the coverage of the state that companies and individuals do not enjoy, can get into debt and not fulfill their obligations. Also, do not forget that bank debt is backed by public goods which means that we will respond with our savings and property and work: this is based on FGD Deposit Guarantee Funds whose coverage is only 1%, with which banks they have already granted the consent of the state through the acting government that has consented to it, to keep everything they need, that is, a corralito and execute mortgages to put their apartment for sale, even though they live in it, because they simply need make a box
The London FTSE 100 has reacted with increases last week from the rise in interest rates to 0.50 in some cases. What this will last will depend on the balance of payments dictated by the other reality of consumption and the reflection of the real non-financial economy. At the moment that the FTSE loses the 7,500 points the falls will be uncertain.
BARCLAYS: Britain is "on the cusp of recession".
The economists Andrzej Szczepaniak and Fabrice Montagne predicted the recession at the end of 2016 as others. If this has not happened, it is simply due to the handling of publications about a fictitious growth of the economy and a falsification of the real estate market that has increased its prices -which do not count is that nobody pays the prices of real estate in shop windows and the prices of SAREB floors and similar agencies in other countries of the banks, all prices are subject to low counterofertas by buyers and never match prices announced for sale-, but these lies can not always be endured.
"The UK seems to be sliding into recession."
http://uk.businessinsider.com