I too find the recent price rise nearly incomprehensible. I don't believe everyone's just buying because everyone else is buying because if that were true, the first serious pullback should cause a crash. We've had 12 pullbacks inside this rally.
I do think XRP was severely undervalued for a very long time. The price and volume was low enough that it wasn't worth most people's trouble to even learn about it. Once the price and volume reaches a certain level, people think "what is this XRP thing?" and then they do become more educated.
I think another possibility is that, for almost any coin, we can imagine two possible outcomes: one in which nobody uses the coin because nobody else uses it and one in which everyone uses the coin because everyone else uses it. The rally makes that second outcome more likely for XRP. So, in a sense, the rally can be its own rational justification.
I think we had a perfect storm. Ripple had a lot of good news at the same time there was a huge surge in the entire sector. At the same time, bitcoin is being increasingly perceived as having governance issues and transactions are expensive and take a very long time. So once the value and liquidity was there, people could see XRP as working just like bitcoin, but faster, cheaper, and more reliable.
I don't pretend to know that's what happened though. As I said, I do find it nearly incomprehensible.
I don't know exactly the cost of transaction on the Ripple network and how this plays out in regard to the price rise to really begin to make sense of it.
I do get your point on the fact that the first pull back which should create a crash but nonetheless we cannot ever be sure that market sare always rational on short period of time.
But thanks again for your further comment. It was very friendly and pretty unexpected.
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You're welcome. I definitely agree that it's very hard to draw any conclusions. I have heard good arguments that these markets are almost never rational and good arguments that it's almost impossible for these kinds of markets not to be rational. I tend to lean towards believing they're mostly rational due to the wisdom of crowds putting their own money at risk. But honestly, it's just a gut feeling.
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I agree. There's been so much money put in Ripple at this point it would be wild to think those very large investors haven't given it all the thoughtful consideration those kind of investments need.
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