In July 2022, Cainiao CEO Wan Lin stated at Cainiao Open Week that home delivery is the most important thing in 2022.
Wan Lin explained that every six months, users who experience Cainiao Post Taobao and Tmall (Amoy) home delivery
have one more repurchase than self-pickup users.
In fact, what Wan Lin said was not specific enough.
"Acorn Business Review" learned that a certain courier company in City A has a total of 115 post stations, employs 7 post station direct delivery specialists, and sets up 7 direct delivery routes.
Each line distributes 12 to 15 post stations, and after delivering about 1,200 to 1,500 tickets to the door, the Q1 business volume in 2022 will increase by nearly 30% year-on-year.
With the increase in business volume, home delivery has changed from two dispatches per day to three dispatches per day.
In August, Cainiao announced that door-to-door delivery has been listed as the "highest priority" internally. At the same time, Cainiao announced three door-to-door options:
1 Tmall Supermarket, Tmall Global orders, Cainiao direct delivery (Danniao) to undertake transportation, door-to-door;
2. When the "Taoxi" order arrives at Cainiao Post, the post will deliver the goods to your door;
3. When consumers place orders on Taobao and Tmall, they choose free door-to-door service.
So far, it has been more than half a year since the delivery to the door. "Acorn Business Review" learned that Cainiao's direct delivery currently covers 320 cities across the country, and has established first-level and second-level distribution in some cities. Tmall Supermarket and Tmall International orders are almost worry-free.
In some areas, Cainiao express delivery is also allocated to Cainiao direct delivery.
Cainiao is also increasingly important to Alibaba.
On February 23, 2023, Alibaba disclosed its financial report for the third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2023 (corresponding to 2022Q4). In the quarter ended December 31, 2022, before offsetting the impact of cross-segment transactions, Cainiao’s revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to 23.023 billion yuan.
After offsetting cross-segment transactions, Cainiao’s single-quarter revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to 16.553 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of Alibaba’s overall revenue and becoming its fourth largest revenue support.
After integrating the data for the natural year of 2022, Cainiao's annual revenue will reach 63.8 billion yuan.
You know, in 2020, Cainiao's annual revenue will only be 32.25 billion yuan, almost doubling in two years.
From the perspective of Cainiao’s revenue scale, it far exceeds the three links and one delivery, and its valuation is greater than most express companies in the market.
The results of Cainiao’s direct delivery are gratifying, but the door-to-door delivery of Cainiao’s “Taoxi” station is full of difficulties.
On February 21, "Acorn Business Review" learned from Cainiao's business level that there are currently more than 90,000 Cainiao stations across the country that have opened "Taoxi" door-to-door, and there are only more than 50,000 stations that can be active on a daily basis and deliver goods.
And in the past six months, the confrontation between Cainiao Station and Cainiao is no longer new.
1. No door-to-door, no storage, the post station fights against door-to-door delivery
"Alibaba makes it easy to do business in the world, and Cainiao Post makes it easy to get express delivery" is one of the
most popular jokes on the Internet recently.
Behind the jokes are users’ criticisms of Cainiao Post’s door-to-door delivery service.
On February 26, "Acorn Business Review" found on the consumer complaint platform "Black Cat Complaints" that there were more than 20,000 complaints about "cainiao".
Among them, part of them are complaints about the failure of Cainiao Station to come to the door or store in the warehouse.
"Acorn Business Review" learned from a rookie station owner in Wuhan that the main reason for not visiting is: not making money.
At the beginning of Cainiao’s promotion of home delivery, in order to make the post station actively open the home delivery function, the door-to-door subsidy was 1.3 yuan per ticket, which was later reduced to 1.1 yuan.
Some bosses did not calculate the number of votes for the "Tao Department" of the post station. After opening the door-to-door delivery function, they found that the door-to-door delivery was a loss-making business.
"Acorn Business Review" visited many Cainiao stations in Wuhan and found that due to the unscientific site selection and area division of Cainiao stations, many Cainiao stations have only a few votes a day, or more than a dozen tickets for
"Taoist" packages, which cannot meet the profitability requirements.
Once the home delivery feature is turned on, it cannot be easily turned off.
A Cainiao business person said that after the door-to-door delivery function of the post station is opened, the door-
to-door delivery function cannot be turned off at will, and the capacity can only be adjusted according to the
transportation capacity, unless it meets the temporary customs standards.
In the eyes of the station bosses, this is the "Overlord Treaty", because as long as the door-to-door delivery function is enabled, there will be users who request to come to the door, and users will complain if they do not come to the door.
Cainiao will punish the post station ranging from tens to hundreds of yuan; at the same time, it will immediately compensate consumers 10 yuan.
Many post owners on Douyin have posted short videos, warning other owners to be careful to enable the door-to-door delivery function.
There are always more solutions than difficulties.
A number of Wuhan post station owners told Acorn Business Review that there will inevitably be several "stabhead" users in each community. As long as they are reported, they will block the "stabhead" and all express delivery will be "stabhead" in the future. The post stations are not stored in the warehouse, which curbs the occurrence of "forced" door-to-door delivery and complaints.
This is also one of the main reasons why there are complaints of "no storage" in "Black Cat Complaint".
Another boss told "Acorn Business Review" that not only Cainiao Post, but also couriers have been struggling to deliver goods to the door for a long time.
In January 2023, when express delivery capacity was limited, he joined forces with couriers from SF Express and JD.com, the "veteran door-to-door" brands in the region, to set up a "no door-to-door alliance" to educate consumers in the region.
The "Do not come to the door alliance" quickly sorted out the "stabheads" who like to complain, and Cainiao Station directly blocked them. The couriers of SF Express and JD. Fengchao and Cainiao Station.
However, this also shows that in the door-to-door business, the complaint mechanism of Cainiao Station has failed; SF Express and JD.com have stronger constraints on the courier brothers because of their self-operated door-to-door delivery.
- The inn does not come to the door, and the sequelae of rookie site selection
One of the reasons why post stations do not make money is that 10 years ago, during the barbaric development period of Cainiao, the location of post stations was unscientific.
According to related papers, after using ArcGIS software to analyze the spatial layout of Cainiao Station in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Zhengzhou, it was found that there were problems such as unbalanced spatial layout and unreasonable suburban layout of Cainiao Station.
Taking Zhengzhou as an example, it is dense in the middle and sparse around, and a large number of rookie stations are concentrated in densely populated areas.
This has led to fierce competition in the post station business, and the number of votes for the "Amoy Department" is too small, and it will lose money if the post station comes to the door.
"Acorn Business Review" learned that Cainiao has also introduced corresponding policies to increase the number of tickets on the delivery station "Amoy Department".
That is to say, the function of "merging door-to-door delivery", the door-to-door delivery business between adjacent areas can be merged, for example, A post station receives "Taoxi" parcels from B post station area to door-to-door.
However, post station A has to give post station B a share, which was originally 1.1 yuan, but after the share, it becomes 40 cents. "It is cumbersome and tiring, and the wages of the employees are not enough," said a Wuhan Cainiao post station owner.
According to people at the Cainiao business level, door-to-door delivery is already a necessary condition for the newly joined Cainiao Post Station.
Why is home delivery so important? In fact, regardless of the repurchase situation of e-commerce, door-to-door delivery is also the future of the express delivery industry.
In December 2022, the State Post Bureau issued the national standard for "Express Service" (draft for comments), which clearly stated that "door-to-door delivery" can charge additional fees, and there are only 2 free express delivery.
That is to say, today’s door-to-door delivery of “making money at a loss” will be one of the largest sources of profit for the express delivery industry in the future.
"The one who wins the end wins the world, and the one who wins the end wins the future" has become a consensus in the express delivery industry.
As of 2021, there will be 125,000 Cainiao stations, 70,000 Zhongtong Tuxi stations, 40,000 mother stations (Yuantong), and 40,000 Yunda supermarkets.
Pinduoduo, which is divided into the world with the "Amoy Department", also entered halfway.
In March 2020, Jitu Express was deeply bound to Pinduoduo, and Pinduoduo’s daily express parcels accounted for 1/3 of the national average daily express parcels.
As of April 2022, the number of Duoduo stations under Pinduoduo has reached 48,000 in just 4 months after its establishment, surpassing Fengchao in an instant.
At the level of e-commerce, Pinduoduo also requires the post station to deliver the products purchased by users to Pinduoduo to their doorsteps.
- In the first ten years, "no opponent at the end", where is the road in the next ten years?
Ma Yun always likes to give idealism to business.
Just like 10 years ago, on the day Cainiao was established in Shenzhen, courier companies such as Santong Yida and SF Express gathered together, and Jack Ma, who was wearing a double-breasted blue mandarin jacket, was in high spirits on the stage.
He is trying to tell all express delivery practitioners a scene 10 years later:
The time limit for all express delivery will be shortened to 24 hours; the number of express packages will increase from 25 million per day to 200 million per day; the number of express employees will increase from 1 million to 10 million.
He believes that rookies who only do terminal outlets and do not do express delivery will not "compete for jobs" with the express delivery industry. They are "service providers" in the express delivery industry and are absolutely "altruistic".
However, he emphasized that Cainiao’s true value will be proven in 10 years. “It will take 10 years for any idealistic company to succeed, as is the case with Taobao, Alipay and even Alibaba.”
Thunderous applause resounded through the audience.
After 10 years of vicissitudes, China has ranked first in the world in terms of express parcel volume for many years in a row.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Postal Service, by the end of 2022, there will be more than 50 million express delivery workers in China; a total of 139.1 billion parcels will be completed in 2022, with an average of 380 million parcels per day.
In the past 10 years, the world has changed, and Ma Yun has long since faded out of the public eye. There are only a few words about him on the Chinese Internet from Japan and Australia.
Cainiao’s right to speak in China’s express delivery industry continues to strengthen, and the terminal outlet, Cainiao Post, is almost the last stop of every package.
Ten years ago, Ma Yun personally sewed the "idealistic coat" for Cainiao, which gave Cainiao a 10-year development period of "no opponent at the end".
Now Cainiao is stuck in door-to-door delivery, where will it go in the next 10 years?