Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the
rear, or fools and the government from any direction
The coronavirus pandemic is a tragedy for the entire world. Civilized governments are doing everything to preserve business and compensate for the loss of income for the population. Russia is not lucky. Our politicians- not in the sense of relatives and friends, but in the sense of our dependent parasites- did not even think to return a part of the hard-earned money to business and the population to support them in these difficult days. As if nothing had happened, the president and the government extended the self-isolation regime at our expense until May. Bye.
But it is already clear that the pandemic continues and the number of cases is growing exponentially. Self-isolation has not led to a decrease in infected people, and this is not surprising – in Spain alone, more than 100,000 Russians are still on vacation. And only the Creator knows how many of them are infected. The mortality rate is increasing every day, and the probability of extending self-isolation, until at least summer, is very likely.
And all this time, the economy will be under a double blow – the growth of the dollar/euro exchange rate and a multiple decline in revenue for most businesses. "Our" elite did not react to the fact that, all these years, the economic situation in Russia does not lead to optimism.
A question arises: they still don't know or they don't care at all that:
- 65% of the population has no savings, and 20% have savings for one month and will exactly run out by the May holidays. In other words, 85% of Russians are on the verge of devastation and poverty;
- About 80% of small and medium-sized businesses operate only as long as funds are received. With a sharp decline in revenue, they will last one quarter – no more, and no tax holidays will save them;
- In 2019, almost 70,000 people and 36.5 thousand legal entities became bankrupt. The figures do not seem large. But now compare with 2015: there were less than 900 bankrupt individuals, and organizations- less than 11 thousand. In the first quarter of this year the number of bankruptcies has almost doubled compared to 2019
Belarus is in a similar situation with the development of coronavirus, but Mr. Lukashenko understands that if a self-isolation regime is introduced, "there will be nothing to eat", just as he openly stated to those proposing to introduce a self-isolation regime. And he preferred the decline of his own popularity to the collapse of the economy.
But in our country, Mr. President and government officials love to show the international community their progress, they make beautiful gestures and loud statements.
Nevertheless, the oligarchs from their team are not far behind.
Back in December 2019, a certain person from the Forbes list said that it is possible to lay off 25 of the 70 million Russian workers without problems for the economy. The "cool" oligarch did not have the courage to make the statement in the open. But the very fact that a businessman who "was parasitically feeding on the budget" could say this- indicates the level of mental usefulness of those who are "at the top of the pyramid".
Today, there is a question of firing "just" 9 million Russians, 1 million of whom live in Moscow. About 3 million small businesses are under threat of closure, but if this happens- collapse of the economy, mass unemployment and an entire "bouquet" of social consequences- growth of suicides, crime, epidemic of alcoholism and drug addiction is unlikely to be stopped.
Coronavirus forestalled the processes of mass staff reduction in retail, which were supposed to occur in 2022-2025 – "zeroing" unskilled jobs (movers, merchandisers, security) due to the transition to electronic systems. But, at that time, these processes would be mitigated by a gradual change of technologies. But now, neither business nor people are ready for this. There are risks that if negative trends continue, by the end of the year, more than 300,000 people will lose their jobs in Moscow retail alone.
The process of retrenchments and lay-offs has already begun– employees of some businesses have been moved to working "remotely" with a concomitant reduction in wages by 30-50%. In the field of non-food trade and service, at least 30% of the staff have been "sent to the street". For example, Sportmaster has already closed 325 out of 500 stores, while the rest are selling take-away items.
90% of flights stopped paying off. These directions were closed. Flights are carried out by 12% of aircraft. It’s not surprising that revenue in the non-food trade fell by 50-80%.
The only area where there is an increase in turnover is food commodities. But even here, the news is not encouraging. Manufacturers and suppliers have warned of a 15-25% increase in the cost of product prices in the coming months. The mark-up on goods that are imported will grow even more.
What is happening and will happen to our economy in the coming months is monstrous! Before the coronavirus pandemic, it seemed like we were in the that tunnel where it was dark and smelly and there was nowhere else to go. But it turned out that we can "be shoved" even deeper, and then you can already add "deep" to the word with the letter "S".
In any case, the "authorities" in Kremlin and in the regions are absolutely calm, and they do not even think of giving up on the geschafts. The favorite "tile business" of government officials: annual change of curbs, asphalt to tile and tile to tile will work as soon as the self-isolation regime is canceled and the decisions are signed. Tens of billions of rubles will again be spent on "sharing the budget", not on stabilizing the economy, while the majority of the population will seek money for buckwheat and toilet paper.
I wonder why our government pays international consulting companies $2 billion annually if they can't provide up-to-date information about the situation and predict the consequences? Is it possible that the foreign analysts are not working for Russia and are interested in a repeat of 1917? Even our home-grown kitchen politicians understand that our country is on the verge of a"social explosion".
I really want to know, what is the name of the game with the population, in which the president, the government and their entourage of oligarchs and officials are actively involved? Their behavior is very similar to that of the sitting of pimple-faced teenagers, who played "Civilization" for too long, behind the computer. Does our elite think that if they "screw up the game", it's okay – "they will start over"? What is the basis for their confidence that the population and business will accept and tolerate everything?
Is it on the fact that the National Guard receives a timely salary and is on high alert?
And on the fact that the self-isolation regime excludes any opportunities to protest against the disregard for people?
Does Mr. President truly believe that his executive orders have magical powers? That he will forbid, shake his finger and everything will be as he wants?
No decree or regulatory methods "from above" will keep the economy from collapsing, and the country from protests and riots.
You can prohibit the bankruptcy of businesses, but you can not force entrepreneurs to go to work if there are no orders. You can prohibit the dismissal of employees, but you can not prohibit the reduction of their earnings by 50-70% or sending them on indefinite leave at their own expense. You can increase the minimum wage to 12,000 rubles, but you can't force 3/4 of the Russian population to live on it.
You can only improve the economy in a comprehensive way:
- Increase social payments to vulnerable groups: pensioners, families with children, etc.;
- Reduce the tax burden on business, including reducing the amount of deductions for employees at least twice;
- Wipe out government official "earnings", which are not really needed by the population, from regional budgets;
- Change the conditions for attracting investment. Russian and foreign entrepreneurs should receive ironclad guarantee of support and security.
All of the above will dramatically increase domestic demand and warm up markets.
But all this is absolutely unrealistic under Putin and his organized criminal group. Like the president, so are his people. With the exception of a small group of those who are responsible for the work of the army and law enforcement agencies, the president accumulates thieves and scoundrels around himself. In this unhealthy atmosphere, any healthy endeavors spoil like water from a clear stream flowing into sewage. Any attempts to do something face the fact that it is done by corrupt officials and amateurs. A healthy endeavor is infected with the bacilli of incompetence, theft, and turns into a disgusting inoperable mutant that corrodes our society like acid. Therefore, whatever the authorities do at any level, irresponsibility and corruption kill everything.
If they not only stole, but also did business, this could be accepted. But the problem is that any attempts under Putin to manage the economy only led to a waste of time and theft of resources. Majority of the applications for innovation and import substitution of the Skolkovo type are meaningless talk that covers theft of budget funds after theft of budget funds. The team of his dancing bears can only squander the money of Russians.
Our country, like the Titanic, is moving briskly along the designated route. And the elite doesn't care. It doesn't matter what happens at the bottom, if the top lives its own life. The president and the government are resting from "unjust labors" in their private palaces and smugly condemn business to bankruptcy, and the population to fall into poverty.
There is only one way – force the rats to abandon their plans and leave their posts. No matter how much they steal, it is better to let them choke on it than a new bloody revolution that will make everyone poor and throw the country back for decades. Let them "run" while we allow them to!
Moreover, 2020 is not 1917 at all. Modern technologies guarantee "rats" a comfortable departure from the "sinking ship". "Spare airfields" in other countries have already been prepared. Money can be withdrawn to foreign banks in minutes, but "revolutionary soldiers and sailors" will not have time to block private airfields. So if something happens, the "rats will escape" easily and naturally. And this situation clearly gives the "powers that be" the strength and audacity to ignore the needs of those with whose money they build themselves new homes, buy luxury cars, eat, dress and have fun. They just forget that the same technologies will help you find them anywhere on earth.
The president can reset his terms as much as he wants – it will not help him if the entire nation expresses a vote of no confidence. We don't need another bloody revolution and a subsequent civil war. The president and the government must go into political wilderness, but they must go bloodless. IMMEDIATELY!
We can still win immediately, if we start preparing right now! Therefore, it is necessary to adopt not firearms, but the experience of France, where with the help of protest marches and mass signing of petitions, the government can be forced to do everything that the people need.
The main question is around whom to consolidate?! Who is competent and ready to clean the Augean stables?! Who will be able to rein officials in and make them work not for their own pocket, but for the sake of those who pay for their work?!
The trouble is that such a person is still unknown. But the one who can organize the people and throw off the thieves sitting on our necks- has every right to come to their place and try.
https://www.newsru.com/russia/07apr2020/bez_bordurov.html
https://www.newsru.com/world/07apr2020/spain_rus_karantin.html
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5e1d03299a79470bc502f371
https://hotel.report/management/kommersant-obnarodoval-statistiku-bankrotstv-za-2019-god
https://fedresurs.ru/news/8f252102-75dd-464f-898e-26d27c7d5bf0?attempt=1
https://russian.rt.com/business/news/735236-bankrotstva-rossiya-krizis?utm_source=smi2
https://www.newsru.com/world/07apr2020/belorus_carantine.html
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27069/4138795/
https://ura.news/news/1052423604
https://www.newsru.com/finance/01apr2020/economic_karantin.html
https://www.pravda.ru/politics/1485589-epicrisis/
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/703014
https://www.newsru.com/russia/07apr2020/rusavia.html
https://www.pravda.ru/society/1433423-nowork/
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5e8bf6d69a794744ecaed452
@animor aka golos.io/@runews
Спасибо за пост в #ru
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