By now, most of you likely know there was an awful terrorist attack in Moscow today, with some 40 dead and at least 100 wounded (these figures may go up by the time you read this).
A few thoughts:
I was among those who suspected Putin might have ordered it as a "false flag" attack in order to blame Ukraine and galvanize support for his war, and for further domestic repression. I was far from sure this was the explanation. But I thought it worth considering.
However, ISIS has now claimed responsibility. While it's possible they claimed responsibility for an attack they didn't perpetrate, Occam's Razor suggests it most likely really is them.
Radical Islamists do have a variety of grievances against Russia, arising from its brutal treatment of Chechnya, and other repression of Muslim minority groups. That said, it's a little strange this would happen at a time when Putin is allying with Iran and backing Hamas. However, ISIS has its own issues with Iran (part of the longstanding Sunni-Shiite conflict).
More evidence may emerge. But for now, I tentatively conclude it was indeed ISIS.
Whoever it was, Putin probably will indeed use the attack as justification for more repression.
Perhaps this doesn't need to be said. But I will say it anyway: Even if the perpetrators have legitimate grievances against Putin and his regime, there can be no justification for such a barbaric attack targeting innocent civilians. I have said previously that Putin and many other top Russian officials are war criminals who deserve execution or imprisonment for their crimes. But they were not the ones who suffered in this attack.