Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has sparked a fear:
Could this be the start of a massive International war?
What Putin likely thinks is that Ukraine will be left to stand alone. So let's look at what's going on with Europe, the United States, and the United Nations to see why the Russian president believes he can get away with it.
Europe:
The 2nd World War ended about 75 years ago and it devastated Europe. Tens of millions of people were killed in just over 5 years of fighting. The entire continent lay in ruins. So Europeans are keenly aware perhaps more than your regular cable news pundit, a vote of continent-wide war means. And unlike Ukraine's allies further away, like the United States, its European allies are much closer to Russia. So while they recognize that Russia's invasion is disastrous and illegal and that Ukrainians are suffering. They're unlikely to get militarily involved themselves. Instead, some European countries have supplied Ukraine with weapons and wished it luck. They've also announced sanctions on Russia's economy, but Russia knows that Europeans can only go so far. That's because Europe relies on Russia for energy. In 2021 38% of the natural gas consumed by the European Union came from Russia. Germany, in particular, has become dependent on Russian gas as it shuts down its nuclear and cold power plants. And that could explain why Germany refused to send military aid to Ukraine until a few days after the invasion began. Now, right before the invasion, Germany did pause the launch of an 11 Billion dollar natural gas pipeline between it and Russia but that pipeline has already been built. Russia's energy integration with Europe means that it has a pretty powerful weapon against sections. By reducing or cutting off natural gas supplies it could devastate Europe's biggest economies.
United States:
The United States has backed Ukraine during various periods of tension with Russia over the years. In fact, the US has even pushed for Ukraine to join the Nato Military Alliance. Something it knew would provoke Russia. But American support has always topped out a providing military aid or imposing limited sanctions. And that's not likely to change this time either because while the US military is the world's most powerful, It doesn't have an appetite for taking on the world's 2nd most powerful military. And domestically president President Biden knows most Americans don't want war with Russia. So while the US was warning for weeks that Putin would invade Ukraine it was withdrawing the few US soldiers in the country, not sending more. Now since 2014, the United States has supplied more military gear to Ukraine than anyone else and is promised even more sanctions. Like with Europe Russian knows these measures can only do so much. With energy prices already high, the US is hesitant to impose meaningful sanctions on Russia's Crucial oil and gas industries because doing so could create worldwide shortages and even higher prices and that's a cost that the US would have to bear as well.
United Nations:
United Nations charter says that all members shall refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence Of any state. The UN was of course formed to promote International peace after the horrors of World War II and the 5 permanent members of its security council are supposed to be leading this International order but Russia is now the 3rd member of that council to invade a sovereign country just in the last 20 years. In 2003 despite opposition from most of its allies and the United Nations the United States illegally invaded Iraq with support from the UK. President Bush calculated correctly it has to be said that the US would not suffer any consequences president Putin is making the same calculation because over the years he is seen that it's not just a superpower like the US that gets away with ignoring International law. For example, Israel has not only illegally occupied land for decades the US has recognized the sovereignty over the Golden Heights land the UN says belongs to Syria, and under Putin Russia itself has tested the limits of International law for years now. It attacked Georgia in 2008 and since 2014 has occupied an annex Crimea from Ukraine. All the UN could do was issue resolutions asking Russia to give the territory back. Putin is betting the invasion of Ukraine will be met with much of the same. With Europe reliant on Russia for energy the US was unwilling to go to war and the United Nations ineffective the Russian leader knew he could invade his neighbor without risking World War 3.
