Predictions for all La Liga games of Matchday 10 based on Molali's calculations.
This is the second week now for my prediction model. I couldn't have dreamed a better start, all information about last week you can find here. I hope to make some good profit this week too.
Last week I placed only 3-way bets, for this weekend I start with some result bets too. I don't know yet how to decide which result bets I should place, I would appreciate any advice. For this week I decided to look at any result prediction with a probability over 20%, then compare the odds of the bookies. Like I do for the 3-way bets, if the implicit probabilities are lower than the probabilities of Molali, that means a value is there. The stakes for these bets is 1 Unit.
3-way bets stay the same as last week: For each game I compared the results with the odds from my 3 bookies (bet365, bwin and pinnacle) to find the "odds with value". If the implicit probabilities are lower than the probabilities of Molali, that means a value is there. These are the bets I place. I play every bet with 2 Units.
Valladolid - Espanyol
Odds with value: X = 3.29 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 8.11 @ Pinnacle
Girona - Rayo Vallecano
Odds with value: X = 3.77 @ Pinnacle; 2 = 4.57 @ Pinnacle
Athletic Bilbao - Valencia
Odds with value: X = 3.30 @ bet365; 2 = 3.00 @ Bwin
Levante - Leganes
No value bets for this game
Celta - Eibar
No value bets for this game
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad
Odds with value: X = 4.1 @ Pinnacle; 2 = 7.64 @ Pinnacle; 1 - 0 = 5.75 @ Bwin
Getafe - Betis Sevilla
Odds with value: X = 3.13 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 7.41 @ Pinnacle
Barcelona - Real Madrid
No value bets for this game
Alaves - Villareal
Odds with value: X = 3.34 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 8.4 @ Pinnacle
Sevilla - Huesca
No value bets for this game
Summary
This week I found 9 value bets concerning the 3-way bets and 4 on the field of the result bets. That means I placed 13 bets with a total stake of 22 Units. Like last week lots of bets on a draw or the away team, this seems already like a pattern, but ouf course it's too early to know for sure.
Good luck.
Watch out with the 0-0 bets. Less than 5% of the games do end up in a scoreless draw. If a draw is played, the most common result is 1-1.
You maybe also could find value in the over and under bets. For sure the under bets could be very rewarding!
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Thanks.
I will keep that in mind, didn't know about the 5%. At the moment I just look the calculated probability and the given odds. Maybe this is a weakness of the Poisson aproach, that for 0-0 the calculation do not make sense? I will keep an eye on that when analyzing the performance.
I can imagine looking for the over / unders at a later stage, I don't want to do too much rigth at the beginning, I think I would lose control ;)
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In Belgium 25% of the games do end up in a draw. Almost the same figure for the games in the Premier League.
The weakness of the Poisson models is that on one side it most of the time does predict low scoring games, hence to many 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 s are predicted.
Also it rarely does predict a draw! Besides the most likely correct score.
How do you adopt the predictions with the weight. Very curious about it.
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