SBC League, KingDeBasura#12

What a game last night. Real was close to winning the title, but in the last few minutes Marcelo made a stupid mistake mot letting out the ball to avoid a throw in and instead he lost the ball and Atletico scored. In the extra time Atletico was better and had the extra motivation of turning around the game and the game finished 4:2 for Atletico, and obviously making me lose my bet from yesterday.
Today are a lot of games for the Europe League Qualifiers and I will try to compensate my loss from yesterday.

Lessons learned

I analyzed my bets so far and found out that I win over 50% of my bets, but my ROI is still negative. I decided to try to find more bets with odds above 2.0, abviosuly trying to keep my win/lose stats the same. We will see how this goes in the future.

Burnley – Istanbul Basaksehir

Burnley is having problems to score. Given the 0:0 from the first game, if the Turkish team manages to score, Burnley will need 2 goals, what I think is very unlikely. Another draw is also very likely, therefore I decided to go for a “draw no bet” with Basaksehir as winner. I see a scenario for this game where both teams want to avoid losing and park the bus, but also a scenario with an early goal and then there could easily be 3 or more goals. With the given odds I will try my luck woth an over 2.5 goals bet.

FC Luzern – Olympiakos

Olympiakos won the first game with a clear 4:0. Even if they don’t need a win for today, I guess the Greek coach wants to get his players in good shape for the upcoming league start and will play with at least half of the usual starters. FC Luzern started bad in the league and they have some injured players. I think Olympiakos will win again and with odds of around 2 this seems very attractive.

Maribor – Glasgow Rangers

After the 3:1 from the first game the Rangers can afford to concentrate on the defense. Maribor didn’t make a too strong impression on the first game. I hesitate whether to bet on a draw or a Draw no bet with the Rangers winning. I decided to take the second option with the lower risk.

Date	Game -- Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
16.08.2018	Burnley - Istanbul Basaksehir -- Draw No Bet Basaksehir	3	2.37	push	Bet365
16.08.2018	Burnley - Istanbul Basaksehir -- Over 2.5 goals	3	2.70	lose	Bet365
16.08.2018	FC Luzern - Olympiakos -- 2	3	1.95	win	Bet365
16.08.2018	Maribor - Glasgow Rangers -- Draw No Bet Rangers	3	2.25	push	Bet365

Month	Bets	Won	Lost	Push	Staked	Profit	ROI
August 2018	27	15	12	0	98	-10.10	-10.31%