The End Of Money: Boldly Going To A Post Economic Era

in science •  6 years ago 

spacexXlaunch.jpg

From Gene Rodenberry of Star Trek fame, to the author Iain M. Banks famed for his Culture novels. Many a science-fiction writer has imagined a future without money. A society whereby all of our needs are met, and thus the need for a barter system disappears.

Even if you are a proponent of the fact that science fiction often becomes science fact. The no-money-world model is just a step too far for you. After all, this isn't even in the realm of science, it is about economics; and what do science fiction writers know about economics? Right?

Progress And Economics A Love Hate Relationship

I wrote yesterday about how Moore's Law may be about to end, but not because the limits of physics were being reached. More because of the economics involved, ultimately the amount of money being poured into keeping up with Moore's Law is barely worth it.

The computer chip industry is now feeling the blunt side of the double-edged sword that is modern economics. The sharp side of course was the part in Moore's Law that explained why computer chips would halve in size and double in power every couple of years.

Moore correctly envisaged a world whereby computer usage would exponentially grow. This growth would allow the industry to develop new techniques and furnish larger orders, bring in more competition, and crucially, fund an ambitious research and development (R&D) policy. All of which would drive costs down.

When you know that if you spend five billion dollars to research new semi-conductor tech. You will in turn make a hundred billion from that research investment, then money is your friend. It fuels the business, generates profits and drives innovation.

The last aspect mentioned there is the most important. Your customers come to expect newer, faster, better chip technology than your competitors. All of this means that you are driven to spend as much as possible on R&D and break new ground in the industry with regular milestones achieved. All the while benefiting society as your chip technology is used to make advances that push society further forward.

But then something happens, you hit the edges of what can be done, and now you are making chips that are perhaps 20% better than the last iteration. Even though it cost you more in R&D than it did to get something that was previously 100% better.

Now money is your enemy. The market still demands better tech. They won't take any less than you have been delivering them. 100% better and faster chips every couple of years.

Societal Impact

So what?! I hear you cry; how does one industry example justify a view of a post economic era?

Simply put, the economics arms race that happened within the computer chip industry directly benefited society. Things like robot limbs that you can control with your mind and feel as if they were your own, are in-part testimony to that.

Now though those research and development budgets are set to shrink. The money will not be spent at the same rate, because the ends doesn't justify the economic means. Therefore society will be the poorer for not having faster and more powerful computers.

The Cost Of Boldly Going

We don't have to look far to see what happens in an industry whereby the R&D costs outweigh the projected returns.

The energy industry is right there for us to examine. The cost of extraction of fossil fuels is huge. However it is nothing to the cost of researching and developing alternatives. So we end up with very costly fuel, which of course is bad news if you want to use that fuel to leave the planet and go wandering around the solar system.

Elon Musk's SpaceX are discovering the huge costs it takes to try and develop a more efficient fuel, that allows a reduction in weight whilst increasing power.

Up to ninety percent of a NASA rocket is fuel, so it is obvious that in order to get very far in space that the propulsion systems we use today are inadequate.

The Path Of Least Resistance

If however you take money out of the equation, you're still left with the difficult physics, but still removed a major obstacle.

Imagine a scenario whereby money is no object, because there is no money. Therefore SpaceX, NASA and whoever else had the equipment and know-how, could research and develop the crap out of the propulsion problem.

How soon before we had a much more efficient, completely revolutionary fuel system?

My guess would be not long.

The Post Economic Journey

Of course just because it would be great if something happened, by no means implies it will happen. On the contrary, great ideas are often scuppered because nobody has the economic will to carry them out.

Energy is of course the key, a society that uses free energy can slowly tip-toe the way to the point whereby it does not need any kind of barter system.

Rather like Maslov's hierarchy of needs. Society too has needs which have to be fulfilled before it can move up the pyramid.

Maslov opined that we all have physiological, safety, emotional, and esteem needs, which he represented as a pyramid. The idea is that one cannot achieve the next level of the pyramid if your needs are not entirely met on the one below.

640px-MaslowsHierarchyOfNeeds_Res.png


For example if you do not have enough food to eat, then it is impossible to have complete safety. Likewise if you can not guarantee your safety it will be difficult to make social and emotional bonds. Which will in turn effect your esteem, and sense of achievement. All of which lead to the last step, self-actualisation, your personal need for fulfilment.

A Society Of Needs

640pxCryptogeesHierarchyOfNeeds_Res.png

If we tweak the needs we can see that society too has its own hierarchical steps it must take. The first two, not surprisingly, are similar to basic human needs. A society cannot thrive if most of its members are sick, starving and afraid for its safety through war or crime.

Once a society has made sure that its members are fed and healthy, and are protected from war and violence. It is then you can move onto being productive, employment and industry can happen and the society can thrive. For any of these things to happen though, the need for energy has to be met. The cost of that energy will determine just how productive that society can be.

After production comes innovation, with all your base needs met new technologies and scientific methods can flourish throughout your society. Finally atop of the pyramid we have the need for advancement. In this realm lies true discovery, it is society's evolutionary tow-rope, for better or for worse ever tugging us in its wake.

Your society now has an abundant energy source, meaning that the cost to produce food and advance technology has diminished greatly. Soon this spreads as more food production and better technology result in more fit and healthy people.

In a process that may take decades or even centuries and beyond, the need for money is slowly phased out. In such a scenario the potential for developing fuel technology that would allow us to traverse the solar system and beyond would be limitless.

From Fiction To Fact

Whilst a no-money economy is at the moment pure fantasy, who's to say it won't one day be a reality? Science fiction writers have long since realised that without the constricting straps of an economy, technology's growth comes without containment.

The more we advance as a society, the larger we get, the greater our energy needs become. If we are able to solve this huge problem then the stars are indeed the limit.

The problem at the moment is that the energy problem is directly linked to our economic system in a way that will stifle its own advancement.

Hopefully we will one day get to the point where the blunted tool of money is no longer needed. Then just as Gene Rodenberry imagined, it will be our time to boldly go into a new and exciting unknown future.

Further reading:

The End Of Moore's Law: Gone With A Whimper Or A Bang? - @cryptogee

Maslov's Hierarchy Of Needs - Wiki

Title image: SpaceX on Unsplash

Insert image - Maslov's Needs: - Wiki Creative Commons License

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They have essentially reached the limits of Moore's law, but that's what quantum computing is for a new realm of physics that is superior to our current technology and if successful this technology may give us another scientific transformation. Really nice post! Here's a vote from The Steem Mafia. https://discord.gg/d7A5WPB

Yes I explored it in more detail in my Moore's Law article, I can't wait for the next wave of working quantum computers, it will indeed be transformational!

Thanks for the vote and Discord link :-)

Cg

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Hmm, methinks we will get there about the same time we dont need bullets either!

@old-guy-photos,

You're right. Good, bad or indifferent ... we are what we are. The reason that we can read Shakespeare, or Homer, and understand their stories is because the fundamental nature of humanity is genetically hard-wired ... we don't change. Superficial changes in culture and technology only change the manner in which we articulate our motivations ... mere nuances of the game.

Making a chess board of marble, or plastic, doesn't change the moves you can make.

Quill

Can cryptocurrency be a part to the devolution of money? If services can be offered for services instead of money and cheaper means of energy utilized, is this not possible?

China (with Taiwan not far behind) are heading for a post-cash economy. Cashless payment systems are all the rage: IM apps such as Line and Wechat allow you to shop in traditional markets without any physical cash. The future is here!

As i was reading this post i kept looking for where money stopped being needed. And all that was offered was some hand waving.

If you want tons of hydrogen and oxygen to send something into space, you have to go acquire it. Today, money is a way to get someone else to acquire it for you. Without money, you are left with trying to ask someone to spend part of their time doing what you want done.

And, why would they do that? They would do that only if they feel they are getting rewarded somehow. Or, barter by another name.


A moneyless society will not happen like any of these sci-fi authors have written about. Because, they have never, ever gotten rid of the reason money exists.

When you are a small community, you share your windfalls. The crops are planted in the spring and harvested in the fall. There is nothing in the spring, and a huge amount in the fall. So, one tends to share their zucchini harvest. And then, someone shares the meat when the slaughter a cow. (without freezers, no one could even eat part of a cow before it goes rancid)

So, in this small community you see who's pulling their weight, and who shares stuff with you.

BUT, when the community becomes larger than 100-300 people, you can't keep track. And so money is used as markers to the sharing.

Money is a tracker for how much effort you put out.
(of course banks have taken advantage of this)

So, in the future, we will have super-money. Money that is much better at tracking effort, good-will, time, need, etc.

We will not have a future without money.
In fact, i believe the future may be straight barter, with computers doing all the sorting to get everyone what they want.

@builderofcastles,

BUT, when the community becomes larger than 100-300 people, you can't keep track. And so money is used as markers to the sharing.

Prescient point. It's called Dunbar's Number. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number Over it, groups start to require police forces, courts and other institutions of state. And ... money.

Imagine you own a Mercedes that I want to buy, but I don't have any money. So, I offer to mow your lawn instead. The disparity in the value exchange means that I'll have to do a lot of mowing and, unless your back yard is the size of a hayfield, it will take years to pay off my debt. Worse, imagine that you live in a condo and don't have a lawn at all. Or, what if I'm a scofflaw? What if my lawnmower breaks and I don't have the money to repair it?

The terms and conditions of the transaction becomes so cumbersome that it makes commerce all-but-impossible. Now multiply this out for my buying meat from the butcher and shoes from the shoemaker. This is why barter doesn't work for anything but the simplest of transactions.

Now imagine that you're the CEO of Daimler-Benz, the manufacturer of Mercedes automobiles. You've got thousands of suppliers and millions of customers in over 100 countries. Without a universally accepted unit of exchange (money) to act as an intermediary between parties, how could you ever orchestrate who owes who what? You couldn't, it would be a nightmare.

Now recall that there are millions of companies worldwide.

The "concept of money" was one of the greatest inventions of mankind as it allowed the value of labor and resources to be divorced from individuals, and created an abstract method of "value transfer" that was independent of space and time.

Money, in whatever form, is going nowhere.

Quill

I expect money to evolve.

Right now it is a sorta measure for work and materials applied.

I expect new forms of money to be a measure of good will, patience (or waiting / time value), etc.
In fact, you could say that people's seller rating in ebay / amazonia is a form of "money".

So, i believe, in the future, we will see these things expressed as easily as we express money in a bank account today.