I like your theory and somehow I agree it. But there are few mentions:
- Software already create sogware, let's think ORMs codefirst or database first, or to other file templates .
- AI can replace humans only for repetitive tasks, and as programmers we should be onests, some of our tasks are repetitive and borring and these will be easily executed by AI.
- AI exists for more than 40 years and even if hardware evolution was huge in last time. AI it's still "virgin" and as I told on previous point it can replace humans for repetitive tasks. And programming has an important creativity part. For this reason I'll say that will happen in 40-50 years or more, not in 20.
See you in 2037. :)
Yet, what is "creativity" other than putting together things in a random manner while finding out that "it works"?
This preselection of "the apps that work" is already working at the appstores, where common consensus make ones prevail over other ones.
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If You talk about dummy apps that shows some info saved into a tiny DB or Jason file, I agree with you, there is no creativity. But if you will want to translate business requirements into a software that automate your business. I have serious doubts that AI will be able to do that like magic. :)
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In the 1970's it was often said 'Software will write software'. I learned to write software anyway. I think it will always be a valuable skill and made more valuable by people believing the software will be written by software and thus dropping out of the knowledge pool and becoming naught but consumers enjoying the 'magic' of technology without knowing how it operates.
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