Often something offends me about Occam's Razor. Or at least about how it is applied and used in argument.
I think when you try to shave something complex like a biological system (a human face for instance) with Occam's Razor you end cutting all the interesting parts off. We need a safety razor.
Because if you are staring down a 1 in a million chance, it’s not that you won’t ever see that happen. You should see it almost exactly 1 time in 1,000,000 trials. And if we don't see it that often, that’s when we need to be surprised actually and go make sure we haven't ignored it or that we have correctly anticipated its probability.
Building on that, there are so many of these 'lottery tickets' that we each accrue in our daily lives in experiencing things that mostly but not always come to mundane outcomes. How many 1 in 1,000,000 tickets does one collect in a week in all the things they experience?
Every second we are surrounded by rooves that might collapse, gas lines that might explode, and skies that drop freak tornados. If you average close proximity to only about one regular ol’ object that has a 1 in 1,000,000 failure rate every second--well, a million seconds is only 11 days! That's an oversimplification, but I can’t be the only one that wonders at the math there...
You could be in a plane crash or you could become extremely wealthy from a minor investment or your dog could be born the smartest dog in history or you could be killed by a falling piano or you could expand the periodic table while building a PB&J--my point is if you play long enough some outside bets will hit. And we all play a lot.