Their model expects Republicans to win 51 seats and Democrats to win 48 seats and Ohio is rated as a toss-up. They give Democrats a 25% chance to hold the Senate.
New ratings:
Nebraska: they shifted this to likely Republican from safe Republican. The independent candidate is doing relatively well in polling. Fundamentals still favor the Republican.
Florida: they shifted this to lean Republican. The model gives Democrats a 25% chance to flip the Senate race. Scott's polling has been weak.
Nevada: they shifted this to likely Democratic.
Pennsylvania: they shifted this to leans Democratic. It is the Senate race the Republicans are spending the most on. They give Casey 78% probability to win.
Virginia: they shifted this to safe Democratic.
Tester remains in a dog fight in Montana. Tester is fundraising more than Sheehy but the state fundamentals are rough. The model gives him a 26% chance to hold the seat.
Texas is on the border between lean and likely Republican in their model. State fundamentals are strong for Cruz, but his polling has been weak. Hopefully the Cheneys endorsing Allred will help with that.
If you want to donate to the Senate this cycle consider a donation to Tester, Sherrod Brown, Allred, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. If the Democrats are going to keep the Senate this cycle they'll need to win in Montana and Ohio. And Texas and Florida are the only realistic flip opportunities this year.