With the hectic Christmas schedule (nearly) behind us, I thought it was time for another one of these posts!
A simple version of how I do this: for each player I calculate their points per 90 minutes played, then use their upcoming difficulty ranking, both for their team and individual position, to calculate a rating of how well they are expected to perform (the higher the better). If anyone is interested in a more in-depth explanation then just comment below and I can explain it!
I've created two teams per budget, with one being based on the FDR of each player and the other being based on the PDR of each player (read this to find out what FDR and PDR are). I also put some restrictions on the team my program could pick. Each player in the team has played a minimum amount of 270 minutes in the last 5 gameweeks and there can't be multiple defenders or goalkeepers from the same team.
Budget of £100m
FDR
| Name | Team | Position | £ | PP90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cech | Arsenal | Goalkeeper | £5.4 | 3.81 | 11.13 |
| Ryan | Brighton | Goalkeeper | £4.5 | 3.95 | 10.64 |
| Long | Burnley | Defender | £4.1 | 5.40 | 14.77 |
| Rüdiger | Chelsea | Defender | £5.8 | 5.26 | 11.29 |
| Klavan | Liverpool | Defender | £4.4 | 4.69 | 11.11 |
| Jones | Man Utd | Defender | £5.6 | 5.40 | 15.39 |
| Yoshida | Southampton | Defender | £4.8 | 3.87 | 9.30 |
| Sánchez | Arsenal | Midfielder | £11.8 | 6.06 | 17.71 |
| Groß | Brighton | Midfielder | £5.9 | 5.39 | 14.51 |
| Sterling | Man City | Midfielder | £8.9 | 8.71 | 16.60 |
| Lingard | Man Utd | Midfielder | £6.2 | 8.44 | 24.05 |
| Pogba | Man Utd | Midfielder | £7.9 | 6.48 | 18.46 |
| Lacazette | Arsenal | Forward | £10.3 | 5.27 | 15.41 |
| Firmino | Liverpool | Forward | £9.1 | 6.52 | 15.45 |
| Crouch | Stoke | Forward | £4.9 | 4.80 | 13.22 |
| £99.6 |
PDR
| Name | Team | Position | £ | PP90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ederson | Man City | Goalkeeper | £5.5 | 4.47 | 8.51 |
| de Gea | Man Utd | Goalkeeper | £5.9 | 5.18 | 14.76 |
| Bellerín | Arsenal | Defender | £6.0 | 3.67 | 10.72 |
| Bruno | Brighton | Defender | £4.5 | 3.73 | 10.03 |
| Long | Burnley | Defender | £4.1 | 5.40 | 14.77 |
| Klavan | Liverpool | Defender | £4.4 | 4.69 | 11.11 |
| Yoshida | Southampton | Defender | £4.8 | 3.87 | 9.30 |
| Groß | Brighton | Midfielder | £5.9 | 5.39 | 14.51 |
| Sterling | Man City | Midfielder | £8.9 | 8.71 | 16.60 |
| Sané | Man City | Midfielder | £8.5 | 6.98 | 13.31 |
| Lingard | Man Utd | Midfielder | £6.2 | 8.44 | 24.05 |
| Pogba | Man Utd | Midfielder | £7.9 | 6.48 | 18.46 |
| Depoitre | Huddersfield | Forward | £5.5 | 5.02 | 12.03 |
| Firmino | Liverpool | Forward | £9.1 | 6.52 | 15.45 |
| Kane | Spurs | Forward | £12.8 | 7.07 | 15.64 |
| £100.0 |
Budget of £103m
FDR
| Name | Team | Position | £ | PP90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cech | Arsenal | Goalkeeper | £5.4 | 3.81 | 11.13 |
| Ryan | Brighton | Goalkeeper | £4.5 | 3.95 | 10.64 |
| Long | Burnley | Defender | £4.1 | 5.40 | 14.77 |
| Alonso | Chelsea | Defender | £7.2 | 5.80 | 12.46 |
| Klavan | Liverpool | Defender | £4.4 | 4.69 | 11.11 |
| Otamendi | Man City | Defender | £6.4 | 5.39 | 10.28 |
| Jones | Man Utd | Defender | £5.6 | 5.40 | 15.39 |
| Sánchez | Arsenal | Midfielder | £11.8 | 6.06 | 17.71 |
| Groß | Brighton | Midfielder | £5.9 | 5.39 | 14.51 |
| Sterling | Man City | Midfielder | £8.9 | 8.71 | 16.60 |
| Lingard | Man Utd | Midfielder | £6.2 | 8.44 | 24.05 |
| Pogba | Man Utd | Midfielder | £7.9 | 6.48 | 18.46 |
| Lacazette | Arsenal | Forward | £10.3 | 5.27 | 15.41 |
| Firmino | Liverpool | Forward | £9.1 | 6.52 | 15.45 |
| Crouch | Stoke | Forward | £4.9 | 4.80 | 13.22 |
| £102.6 |
PDR
| Name | Team | Position | £ | PP90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ederson | Man City | Goalkeeper | £5.5 | 4.47 | 8.51 |
| de Gea | Man Utd | Goalkeeper | £5.9 | 5.18 | 14.76 |
| Bellerín | Arsenal | Defender | £6.0 | 3.67 | 10.72 |
| Long | Burnley | Defender | £4.1 | 5.40 | 14.77 |
| Alonso | Chelsea | Defender | £7.2 | 5.80 | 12.46 |
| Klavan | Liverpool | Defender | £4.4 | 4.69 | 11.11 |
| Yoshida | Southampton | Defender | £4.8 | 3.87 | 9.30 |
| Groß | Brighton | Midfielder | £5.9 | 5.39 | 14.51 |
| Mahrez | Leicester | Midfielder | £8.6 | 6.45 | 13.02 |
| Sterling | Man City | Midfielder | £8.9 | 8.71 | 16.60 |
| Lingard | Man Utd | Midfielder | £6.2 | 8.44 | 24.05 |
| Pogba | Man Utd | Midfielder | £7.9 | 6.48 | 18.46 |
| Depoitre | Huddersfield | Forward | £5.5 | 5.02 | 12.03 |
| Firmino | Liverpool | Forward | £9.1 | 6.52 | 15.45 |
| Kane | Spurs | Forward | £12.8 | 7.07 | 15.64 |
| £102.8 |
Every team seems to agree on the following: either a defender or goalkeeper from Manchester United and Arsenal are a must, alongside Long and Klavan, with players from Chelsea, Southampton or Brighton rounding the defence off (very surprised to not see Otamendi here, to be honest).
In midfield every team has three players from Manchester, the dynamic duo of Pogba and Lingard and their rival Sterling, with the German playmaker Groß claiming the fourth spot in midfield. The fifth spot in midfield is a difficult choice between another Man City midfielder in the form of Sané, the really expensive Sánchez or the in form Mahrez. With Salah being injured I think this is definitely a very good midfield, but if you already own him (like me) I would consider holding onto him until he returns.
Finally the forward position is the most varied one, with Firmino being the only must-have. This is pretty surprisng to me, since he definitely isn't immune to rotation (as we saw in their last game) and Liverpool's fixtures are pretty difficult (Man City and Spurs). The remaining two spots are a choice between Depoitre, Kane, Crouch and Lacazette. Personally I have Kane and can't recommend him enough (thanks for the back-to-back hattricks!), but he's pretty expensive so someone like Depoitre is a good way to be able to afford him.