I agree with your first point but disagree with the second.

I had someone tell me the other day that Steemit only has 27,000 active users - I don't think that number is too big to overtake. Just like AOL was the king of the internet at the turn of the century, but eventually fell into obscurity, I think that's a total possibility here. I'm hoping it's not, but like you said, I like to hedge my bets.