Increased 10,000 cases in seven days. What made Spain the "second in Europe"?

On March 8th, the capital Madrid hosted a Women's Day Thousands Parade as usual!
"Beginning in February, the first time I saw me go home with a box of ffp2 masks, my landlord old lady Carmen laughed:‘ this little girl is going to the battlefield! '”Said Estela, who is studying in Madrid.

Recalling the experience of the past month and a half, almost all Chinese students studying in Spain were in a mixed mood. In early February, news of the epidemic seemed far from Spain, with only short statistics in local media reports. Although the first infected person was found in Spain at the time, a tourist from Germany, no one saw it as a red flag.

"Carmen often asks: What about your parents, friends?" Estela told me that the landlady was always relieved that her condition would not be so serious. "I always answered very well, very well, and well, because of others Anxiety is hard to explain. "

At the end of February, the epidemic broke out in Italy, and the closely related Spain inevitably detected a large number of imported cases. The wife of Estela's landlord began to get nervous. At about the same time, I also talked to the local friends in Burgos about the epidemic. He told me: "We will all be infected. Everyone will be. My sister is a nurse. I know it's serious. I'm ready for the infection."

However, the severity of the epidemic was beyond imagination. Only half a month later, Spain became the country with the fastest case growth rate in the world. None of them-from March 9 to 16, in just one week, The number of confirmed diagnoses in Spain has increased to more than 9,200. On March 18, the number of confirmed cases nationwide reached 13,716, with 598 deaths.

Cumulative case statistics in Spain, sourced from the official website of the Spanish Ministry of Health

Increasing case statistics in Spain, from the official website of the Spanish Ministry of Health

"Unless there are uncontrolled factors"

Until March 4, the Spanish Ministry of Health also believed that the threat of the virus to Spain was very limited. The title of the epidemic report on the "World News" on the day was "The Ministry of Health ruled out the possibility of a" case explosion "of coronavirus in Spain". The article stated that the Spanish Ministry of Health believes that the situation in Italy cannot be repeated in Spain because more than 160 cases were discovered Each case has a traceable infection history and is evenly distributed throughout the country. Therefore, the recommended preventive measures are only to reduce contact with personnel in the outbreak area.

"According to Spanish data so far," the report wrote, "unless there is an uncontrolled factor, the epidemic will slowly grow in a controlled manner, and the number will be in the next few weeks or fifteen days. Increasing and then slowing down. "

Government documents found after the media also indicated that the Spanish Ministry of Homeland Security had proposed on March 2 to cancel large crowd gatherings such as the Women's Day celebrations on March 8 and "may increase the level of response measures, although this decision has not yet been made , But in some specific areas the problem has evolved from a contención phase to a mitigación phase. "

On March 3, the Spanish Ministry of Health confirmed the death of a patient with new coronary pneumonia at the Alaud Vilanova Hospital in Valencia, the first death in Spain / Network

Measures in the "mitigation" phase included the cancellation of large gatherings and school suspensions, but the proposal was rejected at the meeting that day, when a total of 119 cases were confirmed across Spain.

However, in fact, uncontrolled factors have appeared before March 4th, and there is more than one: the "Patient Zero" in the Basque Country was confirmed on February 28th, and she is a female physician with no severe symptoms. As of March 3, 10 people who have had contact with her have been tested positive, and more than 100 medical staff have been isolated. She has not had travel experience in relevant areas, and subsequent investigations have failed to find out who it is. The virus was transmitted to her.

Earlier on February 27, three regional "Zero patients" also appeared in Madrid and Andalucia. None of them had a specific regional travel history, and epidemiological traceability attempts were unsuccessful.

From the point of no traceability, the four positive patients were very similar to the Italian patient No. 1, but they did not attract enough attention until the beginning of March. On the day of the diagnosis of the two patients in Madrid on the 27th, the Ministry of Health Fernando Simón, director of the Health Alert and Emergency Coordination Center, emphasized that “since there is no evidence that there is a persistent and community-transmitted virus in Spain, there is no need to strengthen measures against the virus.” At the meeting, he once again stated that "it is not recommended to cancel the celebration on March 8."

Fernando Simón has been involved in many international epidemiological prevention and control work during an outbreak briefing press conference and is considered to be the number one expert in Spanish epidemiology

"Alcohol and all kinds of disinfection supplies are gone in the supermarket, but there is nothing unusual on the street." Recalling Madrid on the 27th, another foreign student Yolanda said, "Wearing a mask will be pointed, of course not. The Spaniards wear masks, none of them. "

Estela said: "Europe's epidemic prevention propaganda is not very understandable to Chinese people. Washing, washing, or washing hands, masks are not necessary, and even the media often say that masks are useless, and they are all infected. I told Carmen, I still To wear it, take the subway, although others look at me with strange eyes. Carmen washed the dishes and told me: Wear it if you want to wear it. Don't care what people say. "

"The government is addicted to internal quarrels"

More serious problems have only just begun to surface.

On March 3, the day after the end of the meeting between the Department of Homeland Security and the Ministry of Health, the Basque Regional Health Service first announced the implementation of comprehensive restrictions in all hospitals in the country, while the Madrid Autonomous Region threatened to enter itself " "Remission" phase, and does not rule out more drastic measures to contain the virus, such as blocking the outbreak area for ten days. But similar requests were once again rejected by the Spanish Ministry of Health.

Overall, life has hardly changed. On March 8, the Women's Day celebration was held as planned, and the parade in Madrid was particularly large. Although it is not certain whether these celebrations played a role in transmitting the virus, the data is there: on March 9, the number of confirmed cases nationwide skyrocketed from 674 the previous day to 1,231, a daily increase of 83%. Madrid Schools in the district will be closed on the day on the 11th.

On March 8, the Women's Day parade in Madrid, Spain, according to statistics, thousands of people participated in the event

The scale of infection has entered an exponential growth since this day. By March 13, it has exceeded 5000, and on March 14, it has further increased to 6391. The growth rate has far exceeded that of Italy in the same period. The major regions of the country have successively decided to suspend classes, and the blockade is imperative. On the 14th, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez convened a video conference of the presidents of the major regions to prepare to declare a state of emergency.

But what was surprising was that this theoretically unsuspecting video conference lasted for more than seven hours, and the national emergency that was originally planned to be announced at noon was postponed to the evening. The two "thorns" at the meeting-Cathay The leader of Torona Region and the leader of Basque country Urculiu quickly rejected Sanchez's request, arguing that the Madrid government was using the epidemic to deprive regional autonomy, and even to repair the road, and secretly forcibly forced it. Promote Article 155 of the Constitution to hinder regional nationalist movements.

In both autonomous regions, officials have called the national emergency a "155 covert operation." They also accused the central government of being slow to respond in the early stages of the epidemic.

Although the final emergency order announced by Sanchez stated that "regardless of region and ideology", the Basque region only ordered the closure of museums, restaurants and day care centers for the elderly on the same day, while the Catalan region continued. The central government was accused of interfering with the original anti-epidemic measures in Cathay.

A tourist wearing a mask takes a photo in front of the Sagrada Familia landmark on March 11

The conflict within Madrid's central government cannot be ignored either. The cabinet of this government, which is composed of Sanchez's Workers Socialist Party and Deputy Prime Minister Iglesias' "We Can" Party, once again exposed serious problems in the prevention of epidemics. Political interests are divided, the faction that supports strict epidemic prevention and the faction that is concerned about unemployment are at odds with each other, and the dispute over the takeover and defense of civil rights by the military is also difficult to calm. In addition, the leaking of the draft during the discussion period continues to occur, resulting in the final announcement of the bill looks hesitant And the swing is listed as a "necessary place that should not be closed" and there are even hairdressers.

And in a state of emergency, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Health are all members of the Workers' Party as ministers, which has led to constant accusations from all walks of life that Sanchez took the opportunity to expand power.

Spain has held four elections in the past three years, and each election and the subsequent process of organizing cabinets have been extremely difficult. Today, this political shortcoming is particularly exposed in the face of a sudden outbreak. The Le Monde wrote: "The government is addicted to internal quarrels ... the virus develops relentlessly, but in the fight against the virus, citizens lose a whole day."

A message board in Madrid on March 14 advising people to take responsibility and stay home

The worst is yet to come

And the Spanish medical system is facing an unprecedented test.

Since March 10, news that hospitals across Spain are under tremendous pressure has continued to come. Due to the rapid increase in the number of cases, the number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit has increased forty times in ten days, and the ceiling is approaching. According to current calculations by the Spanish medical community, considering that the blockade policy will take at least a week to see the effect, the number of new crown patients admitted to the intensive care unit by the end of this week will exceed 1,000.

At present, 56% of Spanish cases are concentrated in Madrid and Catalonia, which are also the two regions with the most developed medical and economic development in Spain.

The number of patients who need to enter the intensive care unit due to the new crown virus infection announced by the Spanish Ministry of Health, as of March 17 (no data on March 7 and 8)

It was also reported by these two regions on March 15 that due to their detection and treatment capacity reached the upper limit, they will abandon the detection of mild patients and close contacts. Some experts pointed out that this is a decision made in accordance with a guideline issued by the ECDC on March 12, which mentioned "if resources are limited, a reasonable strategy should be implemented, including prioritizing detections", but this is in line with WHO The recommendations run counter.

On March 17, Fernando Simón, director of the Health Alert and Emergency Coordination Center of the Ministry of Health, promised at a press conference that he will mobilize logistics to resume testing of the necessary people. He also announced that Madrid will call the hotel as a place of isolation for patients with mild and discharged patients. It is expected that the number of beds will reach 60,000.

In multiple opinion polls on the website of La Vanguardia, the main media in Catalonia, up to three-quarters of participants still believe that "Spain is not ready for such a pandemic", nearly 70% of participants said Personal protection measures have been taken and 72% of participants expressed concern about the epidemic. The number of participants in each survey was over 170,000.

Opinion poll: "Is Spain ready for an epidemic like the new crown?" 74.56% of people chose "No", and a total of 179,000 people voted

On March 18th, the Spanish Society of Intensive Care and Healthcare released a possible response plan for the new crown virus pandemic. According to data provided by communities with more severe conditions, the plan states that if no containment measures are taken, there will be 12 weeks. 278,435 people were hospitalized and 55,987 died. In the worst case, the number of deaths may exceed 87,000. At present, Spain is only at the beginning of a pandemic, which means that it is possible to quickly expand medical resources in a short period of time and at the same time try to curb further spread of the epidemic Is bound to determine the fate of this country.

The Monde published a review article by a public health expert on March 18, saying that the blockade alone is not enough, and Spain needs to do a lot more: "Maybe it seems late now, but even later, things It could be worse. "