The Pinnacle of Rugby League - State of Origin

Rugby League is played all over the world and while there are World Cups and International Series that seem like they are big events, if you love this great sport as a spectacle – there is none better than the State of Origin Series which is played between New South Wales and Queensland every year. The first of the three game series kicks off in just over 24 hours’ time and this year the teams are looking very different from recent years so that is bound to make for a very interesting series.

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Queensland have dominated for the last few years, but their experienced Spine of big game players are totally gone for Game 1. There is no Cameron Smith at Hooker, no Cooper Cronk at Halfback, no Johnathan Thurston at Five-Eight and no Billy Slater at Fullback. There is a huge "Changing of the Guard" happening at Queensland this year and a lot of exciting young players are now filling those key positions. For the first time in years Queensland are starting the series as Rank Underdogs – but undeservedly so, and here’s why….

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New South Wales have a new coach who has put the cleaners though their lineup and they have no less than 11 players on debut at State of Origin level. They have a whole new look and a new approach, with coach Freddy Fittler taking a bit of a new age / unorthodox approach to preparations which is signalling to this punter (if not the world) that he is gearing up for a really attacking style of footy. It is clear that he wants his players to “back themselves” and have a go so I would not expect this team to die wondering. Literally, anything could happen and probably will!

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With all this inexperience and so much attacking flair in BOTH teams I’m sure we will see a few brain explosions over the course of the series, but we are also very likely to see some scintillating football. In previous years the State of Origin can be a dour, brutal affair at times. So all those bookmakers and statisticians have set the lines according to how the game has been played in recent years and they are totally underestimating the massive potential for change this year. Even the referees are being primed to let the game flow and be more open.

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As a fan I am excited by the prospect of an open, attacking game of footy with some of the brightest talents in todays game, but as a punter I am eyeing off the low line for Total Match Points – currently set at only 34.5. It has been cold in Melbourne this week but it’s often a fast track down there and the forecast is clear so there is very little potential for rain to put a dampener on the point scoring of both teams. Add all that up and I strongly believe the early market is wrong. It is very common for bookies to set markets off statistics and recent history because they suffer recency bias and often don’t see the way the game is changing until it’s too late. This presents sharp punters with an opportunity….

Good luck if you’re having a bet and may the best team win!

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