We'll find out whether I'm right or wrong in a year.
I think we're gonna see a natural and inevitable correction in the quarterback salary market after next season with no need for any changes in the rules or collusion.
Brock Purdy is going to be the most interesting person to watch. He's eligible for a new contract after this season. It'll be incredibly interesting if he takes the 49ers to the Super Bowl this year. That would mean that, in his three seasons, he would have played in a championship game and two Super Bowls. That'd be Mahomes level.
Even if Purdy wins he Super Bowl with the 49ers this year, I don't think he breaks the $45 million a year mark with his next contract. I don't think that Tua breaks $50 million a year unless he wins at least one playoff game after showing marked improvement. I don't think that Jordan Love breaks $45 million a year unless he plays like Josh Allen did in 2020.
Of course, the length of the contracts are variables. Maybe Love will get a "prove it" year with a big, single year deal. I don't know.
The thing is, in the case of Purdy and Tua we know that they're system quarterbacks. They're not guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or even guys like Justin Herbert, who are freaks of nature and can and will flourish in an offense that's "run through them." Purdy and Tua aren't gonna roll out right and then throw left across their bodies for forty yard bombs down the field.
In the case of Purdy particularly, he should definitely stand up for himself and get paid -- as the former last overall pick, he's been being paid beans for the last three years. Still, it's not like Purdy can leave the Shanahan system and reliably flourish. I have no reason to believe that Prudy has it in his head that he can take over for Aaron Rodgers in New York and perform as well as he has in San Francisco. Tua, on the other hand, has reportedly said, "The market is the market."
and so-on; so, he might think that me can thrive outside of the McDaniel system.
What I've said before about supply and demand apply to everybody. There's just more demand for the freaks of nature.
The demand is a lot smaller for system quarterbacks.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Purdy and the 49ers get a deal done fast, and it's well below what some quarterbacks who have been to a Super Bowl get. I would expect Tua to test free agency and come back.
At the very least, I think that they'll break the trend of every new quarterback contract resetting the market.