There's one aspect of Deshaun Watson's deal that few people seem to be talking about; but, it changes everything in regard to how we should look at the NFL's decision.
So, Watson has an unprecedented $230 million fully guaranteed contract. His signing bonus was $44.95 million. The first year of his contract, however, is the league minimum. The second year of his contract is when he starts making $46 million a year in base salary.
Now, I deliberately said, "first year" rather than "this year" for a reason -- the first year of his contract is the first year that he's eligible to play.
I would argue that this fact makes the decision to suspend Watson for twelve games wasn't about the NFL punishing Watson but maximizing the punishment against the Browns. It's no secret that the decision to give Watson that contract didn't sit well with the other owners -- especially the division rival Ravens who are gonna have to figure out how to pay Lamar Jackson, a former MVP with no off-field issues, after the Browns reset the market with Watson.
Obviously, what would have been best for the Browns would have been no suspension. The original six game suspension would have been manageable for the team being the weak strength of schedule to start the season -- they could easily be .500 or better after their first six games with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Now, what if Watson had been suspended for the whole year? Well, that would be better for the Browns, too. The league minimum year of Watson's contract would be kicked to next season. The Browns have a strong roster and they're an attractive landing spot for a quarterback looking for a team. We know that Jimmy Garoppolo is moving and it would be a great move for both parties for him to get a chance to play rather than wallow on the bench and the Browns would get an upgrade from Jacoby Brissett. It would make everything simpler for the Browns if Watson were out for the year.
With Watson's first game of eligibility coming in week 13 against his former team, and given the meat grinder that they'll have to go through before that game, without a move at quarterback I could see the Brown being 3-8 by the time Watson sees the field.
Maybe Jimmy G will still choose to step in; but, it would be a bad decision. This isn't Madden. Jimmy G would probably still spend the first three or four weeks of the season behind Brissett while he learns the offense only to be thrown into games against the Chargers, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Bills, and the Bucs before he gets benched for Watson.
So, yeah, I think that this was about causing maximum damage to the Browns organization. With Brissett at quarterback followed by Watson, I put their record at 6-11. Next season, Watson's cap hit jumps a full $45 million, which means that the Browns will have their quarterback; but, they'll have to start dumping other players.