I'm glad that you could demonstrate profitability from your test, it's hard to know exactly what goes into what sofascore say a team wins at these odds a certain % of the time, but it is good that there is some validity to what they are saying anyway. I agree it is difficult to get a decent sample of matches or find matches to bet on that on a given day. Some leagues, like southern hemisphere leagues may not be winding down just yet, but the calibre of players in top leagues may be lower than usual over June due to world cup.
Sofascore is definitely a good resource to consider for opportunties like what you illustrated in your test of 30 games, I was looking at it for NBA for some of the boston home matches in the playoffs. Boston were marked around evens on exchanges ( 1.8-1.9 on bookmaker websites) at home, and sofascore was saying they'd win these matches 75% of the time.
Boston are now 10-0 at home in the playoffs ( 1-6 on the road) and the sofascore resource has definitely made a difference on calls I made. That being said, it's small sample size of what I took, and there have only been fewer than 20 teams in NBA history who have won 10 home games in a row in playoffs, so it probably has some luck and positive variance in the results
I will be looking at Boston to win (depending on price) against cleveland at home if they lose the game 6 tonight in Cleveland, which I won't be betting on.
Another resource I will be looking at is nate silver's elo rankings of various sports, on fivethirtyeight.com. I think he acknowledges that on some sports, predictions based off of elo rankings don't beat the market, but I'm not sure if that is due to bookmaker overround, or not. ( maybe profitable on betting exchanges) I will have a post about this early next week I'd say and start a similar test over 30 to 50 matches to see if there is anything to it on baseball.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/games/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/games/
Unfortunately, sofascore doesn't give data on clearing handicaps by home and away or the sample size. I'm not too familiar with US sports other than basketball and my impression was that the odds on handicaps are a lot better compared to just the one on Win/Lose.
Thanks for the fivethirtyeight links - i didn't know they did sports analysis as well. Looking forward to the results from your test, if you decide to do a post about it.
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