Not a bad weekend, overall. Putting up two games with 12 runs shows the offense is still there; when it decides to show itself, however, is frustrating to watch. Yesterday, the Brewers had a big opportunity in the top of the 9th inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs, down one run and having the good fortune of Yelich at the plate. The Phillies brought in RHP Tommy Hunter, who actually has good peripheral stats against lefties. That said, and with both the Cardinals and Cubs losing yesterday, the Brewers had a prime chance to show the league they were the real deal, pull off the win, and pick up a huge game on the Cubs before the upcoming series. Alas, that did not happen, and Yelich grounded out into the shift on a 1-0 count. Game over, and Milwaukee lost.
It’s hard to be negative after the +25 runs scored in the series, but given how tight this division race is going to be, and how good the Cubs and Cardinals are, these are the games you need to win. Throw in the recent duds against the White Sox and the Indians (especially the top of the MIL order doing nothing against a horrendous Cleveland bullpen), and this is a win they needed badly in the early part of the season.
Other Thoughts
Brandon Woodruff looked good through 4 innings, but given the game was going to be a rain washout (it wasn’t), they needed to pinch hit Woodruff in the top of the 5th with the bases loaded and 1 out. The idea was : get the lead and prey for a rain out after the 5th inning. Of course, that meant pinch hitting with Hernan Perez, who immediately proceeded to strike out on 4 pitches (I think Woodruff could have done that for you, Captain Craig). Two runs still managed to score with Cain and Yelich plate appearances, but Brewer reliever Lt Dan Jennings immediately collapsed in the bottom of the 5th inning and yield three Philly runs. The Phillies never looked back.
The (Lazy) Mayor of Ding Dong Town
What is going on with Travis Shaw? Has he taken a cue from the Showmingo/Villar playbook of late? Shaw has looked very, very lazy when running the base paths, and even looked a bit nonchalant on a costly boot at 3rd base. Captain Craig even benched him earlier in the series when he half-assed a ground ball out that would have been a base hit due to a poor throw to first base. Let’s pretend you care to even be out there, Mayor Ding Dong, for us fans. I mean, even Rock is not happy with your Ding Dong lollygagging of late. Not good, and start hitting righties again while you are at (I’m tired of watching you look at the dugout every time the umpire calls a strike on you…guess what, they are strikes 9 out of 10 times, and swing the bat already, dude).
This is ALL just my opinion, of course.
Cubs vs Brewers Preview
Now the real meat of the article: Cubs vs Brewers. A three game series that currently is showing the following pitching matchups.
Look at the money to Chatwood – great work, Theo. I guess throw enough money at something, win a few World Series’ titles, and you are the greatest GM of all time. Rinse, repeat, and hope for another championship by throwing that kind of money at the Chatwoods of the world.
No starter is in green territory, aside from the elite ground ball #s that Montgomery delivers. Chatwood looks hittable, but so does Chase. Tuesday’s game could get ugly early. Guerra and Chacin continue to quietly get the job done for MIL.
A review of Fanduel scores, for the 2018 season, shows the following :
The higher the score, the better performance...Montgomery only has three sample points at this time as a starter, but is leading the rotations.
Bullpen
Theo still going strong with that checkbook. Great work, again, Theo – not only have you spent +$18 million more on salaries than Stearns, but your bullpen is “Average,” at best. Not to say it’s a bad bullpen of course; Strop is sporting some excellent numbers for that $6 million salary. As is Cishek and Morrow. Throw enough money at something, and eventually it goes away? Greatest GM ever. ESPN should be all over this on their pregame coverage, no doubt. The title ? “Theo keeps spending money to attempt to win championships.” I can’t wait to read his autobiography.
Lineup Power
The chart above excludes pitchers in the batting order. It also highlights how strong the Cubs’ order is. The back of the Cubs batting order is very strong compared to the Brewers. If the Brewers are going to compete, they will need the Shaws, Yelichs, and Cains of the team to play very well. The Villars and Arcias are not likely going to be able to get it done.
Mashers
No real surprises here, aside from the fact that Zobrist continues to be relevant after he moved away from Tampa. The Cubs are solid against RHP, but smoke LHP. Thank the baseball gods Suter is not expected to start this series.
The Crew on the other hand is solid against both sides of the plate, but top heavy. MIL hits lefties pretty good, so the real test for this team will be tonight against Quintana. Will they continue to mash, or lay up a goose egg?
Predictions
MIL is currently ½ game up on the Cubs. Their Pythagorean record is 37-28; the Cubs, on the other hand, have a Pythagorean record of 40-22. The Brewers, mathematically, are -4.5 games behind the Cubs. That is quite a difference from reality, and I would expect the Cubs to win 2 out of 3 this series, as statistics have a way of catching up. Fireworks should be on display tomorrow with the Anderson vs. Chatwood matchup.
This is going to be a good test for the Brewers. The Cubs are better from a starting rotation standpoint, from an overall lineup standpoint, and are mildly less quality in the bullpen arena. If Milwaukee wants to prove they are legit, they have a chance beginning tonight. Go Crew.