What can I say about my betting pick of Kansas City vs Carolina? I was just flat out wrong but not for the reasons that I thought I would be. The Chiefs just looked really bad in this game and certainly didn't appear like a team that is 10-1. To win in the waning moments of the game by 3 points is pretty crazy for the skill differential we were dealing with in this game.
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Now something that is going to sound a bit conspiracy theorist-ey of me is a thing I want to point out about this game. The Chiefs were favored by 11 points on the gambling spread and even though the game was pretty back and forth in the first half, Kansas City seemed to find their rhythm late in the 2nd quarter. They were up by 14, which is above the spread that was very lopsided to pay out to all the people that like me, thought that Carolina would get trounced.
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Then in the 2nd half KC seemed as though they had a different defense on the field and a rather sluggish offense as well. Now I am well aware of the fact that games can change from one half to the next easily, but this was a rather convenient time for the tide to turn right at about the time that the Chiefs had covered the 11 point spread and were looking to stack even more on top.
Instead of that happening, Carolina was able to put a lot of slow but continuous yardage on their possessions, gradually beating their way down the field and scoring that in the end was 2 TD's that were made on 1-yard plays. This culminated in the Panthers tying the game with a 2-point conversion with less than 2 minutes left in the game. On the very next play the Chiefs once again looked like the dominant team that they were in the 2nd quarter, scoring a field goal what appeared to be in quite easy fashion, on the very next possession from the Carolina 13 yard line.
Now there are a lot of factors that can lead to just this happening, but I always find it suspicious when the "turn" just happens to happen right at the threshold of the point difference necessary for a payout in a very lopsided betting field. More than 70% of bets were on KC to win by more than 11 and the game just happens to turn around right at that point? Well, that's worthy of suspicion isn't it?
Anyway, I am now 4 and 7 on my bets this season and that betting pattern is based entirely on having no faith in Carolina in any capacity.
The real shocker of a game took place between old rivals, Dallas and Washington, who I refuse to call by their new team name.
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It was a game with almost nothing happening and the fans were starting to get pissed off because there was a ton of mistakes made by both teams who seemed to be allergic to the end zone and the score was 9 to 10 at the end of 3. Then in the 4th things got nuts.
41 points were scored combined between the two teams including plays by both teams that went for more than 90 yards on a single play. There were tons of turnovers and scoring was fast and furious by both sides.
Skip ahead to 9 minutes to get to the 4th quarter.
I have been watching NFL for a very long time and I can't recall any time that 2 teams who barely accomplished anything in the rest of the game managed to do something like this in a single quarter.
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The game had everyone guessing about what sort of crazy crap was going to happen next and in the final minute of the game the Skins missed a PAT, which almost never happens, one of the commentators called this "the worst day for an NFL special teams."
On the next play Washington went for an onsides kick, which is also something you never see happen, especially with the new kickoff rules that were introduced recently. Needless to say Washington did not recover this kickoff and the Cowboys returned it for a TD to win the game. Washington didn't even really pursue once it was clear the kick was unsuccessful because at that point, they had already lost the game.
I'm sure there are some very happy Dallas Cowboy fans out there because not only have they been hurting for a win, but they get one over their number 1 rival in the NFL. Washington fans on the other hand have a lot to cry about: Statistically speaking they should have easily won this game and by losing it, they could have lost a playoff spot. We still have plenty of games remaining, so maybe they can pull it back. Since I despise Washington, I hope that they drop all the rest of their games as well.
Next week I will be betting against Carolina again, but the lines haven't yet been determined. I'm still 3 bets up on the year so while I wish it could have been better, I am not going to abandon my system just because of a few strange weeks in a row.