The upcoming ESPN fight card is actually a lot better than I would expect from the ESPN production which normally features up and comers or some 2nd tier talent. You are rarely going to see the best in the divisions fighting on ESPN but at least it gives some mid-table guys a chance to prove themselves and move up in the ranks a bit. Well, maybe not move up, but it "shuffles the middle of the deck" so to speak and gives these guys a chance to impress the UFC and maybe get a later shot at a major event.
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I'm kind of surprised to see Lewis get "demoted" to a non Pay per View event seeing as how he has won his last 3 fights, 2 of which actually were on PPV in UFC 244 and UFC 247. I suppose he will enjoy being the main event which is kind of unlikely to happen for him unless he wins this one against Blaydes, who is the favorite with early betting out of Vegas. These guys are both very heavy as they are both just a few pounds from being out of the Heavyweight division by virtue of being too heavy. This can lead to some amazing punches that would throw a normal human to the moon but there is a downside to being this big also: If the fight goes on for too long, you can expect both men to gas out and we could have a snooze-fest on our hands.
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The "Black Beast" Derrick Lewis is known for his extremely heavy hands and if his opponent allows him to make contact you can be guaranteed he has one-punch-knockout power as Joe Rogan says all too frequently. Lewis is kind of in a class all his own when it comes to how devastating a punch can be from him. Despite this, he seems to realize that a man at 260 lbs isn't going to be winning any marathons any time soon and his cardio is not the best. Therefore, he is actually extremely patient and will normally focus on waiting for that one strike, rather than throwing a ton of punches. He has torn through many opponents because of this power and despite having kinda screwed up in his fight against washed up Junior Dos Santos back in 2019. He has looked impressive in his past 3 fights the last of which was a devastating KO over Aleksei Oleinik.
The main problem that Lewis is going to face on Saturday is that he doesn't have the best ground game and that is what Blaydes specializes in.
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Despite his massive size, Blaydes is a wrestler first and a striker second. He KO's his opponents just as much as Lewis does but this is normally due to strikes on the ground, not standing KO's. Blaydes is very aware of the fact that Lewis doesn't have much of a ground game, so I think you can guess exactly what is going to happen.
If he is foolish or cocky and tries to trade blows with Lewis, Blaydes could find himself in trouble. Since Curtis Blaydes is currently ranked number 2, it is extremely important for him to get a win here if he wants to get a shot at the strap in 2021.
Neither of these guys are accustommed to 5 round fights and that is what they have in store for them on Saturday and this could be a real problem for the audience at home. Both men know they are going to need to be very careful with how the decide to use their energy early on and because of this, the first couple of rounds could end up being quite boring. Lewis may go for it early on, but he does this at his own peril because I can all but guarantee that Blaydes is going to be looking to put him on the ground where his lack of wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills put "Black Beast" in a situation similar to a turtle on its back.
I believe we are going to see this fight go the distance, unfortunately, unless someone decides to do something stupid early on. Both of these guys are near the top of the division so I believe we are going to see a fight where both of them are trying to not lose rather than trying to win.
I predict a Curtis Blaydes victory, but it will be a boring one. I hesitate to make a prediction on the round number or type of victory in my bets this time around because my arrogance resulted in me losing $20 in the last PPV. I'll make a small wager on a simple Blaydes victory.