Celtics @ Bucks Game 6 Tonight! Vegas Line: Bucks -4, Moneyline -190

The Celtics lead this series 3-2 and are looking to close things out on Milwaukee's home court. This will be no easy task as the Bucks, who play their best basketball at home, are favored by 4 points and have their backs against the wall facing elimination. So where am I putting my money?

I predicted from the start of the series in my NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions blog (which is going nearly perfectly) that this was going to be a 7 game series in which the Celtics would most likely win on their home court. The Celtics are proving to be the better team with a deeper roster and a better head coach (maybe even the best in the league). But this is the NBA Playoffs and there are more factors to consider. #1 in my opinion is the officiating. There is no doubt in my mind that over the last 20 years, games have been purposely officiated very lopsidedly for the leagues benefit. The longer a series goes, the more games they get televised and the higher the ratings get. Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs are the most profitable games the league and networks see all season long so when they are this close to getting one, they are definitely rooting for it to happen. Now, I'm not saying they referees will FIX the game. The Bucks still need to play excellent basketball and make shots. But what I do expect is that the Bucks will benefit dramatically from the "close calls" throughout the game. There will likely be a lot more "no calls" when the Celtics drive to the hoop and a lot more ticky tack fouls when Giannis and the rest of the Bucks drive the lane. Just watch.
I also expect the Bucks to play very tenacious defense tonight and coupled with the refs letting them play more physical than normal, it should prove to be very effective as Milwaukee has one of the longest teams in the league. I expect a huge game from Antetokounmpo and anticipate Middleton to continue his hot shooting (57% from the field and 60% from 3 point land!)

YES, I AM ALL OVER THE BUCKS TONIGHT! THIS IS MY 2ND BIGGEST BET OF THE NBA SEASON (only behind the Cavs beating the Pacers in their series -220 after losing game 1 which I also blogged about). I DO THINK THIS SHOULD BE A CLOSE GAME SO I PUT 75% OF MY BET ON MILWAUKEE -190 ON THE MONEYLINE AND 25% OF MY BET ON THE BUCKS -4 -110.