2017-2018 NBA Offseason Review: Houston Rockets

They were one win away from beating the unbeatable and going to the NBA Finals for the first time in Chris Paul’s career. Does their offseason increase or decrease their chance of dethroning the Warriors?

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This post originally appeared at https://94feetreport.com/2018teamoffseasonreviews/home
Take a look at the original copy here: https://94feetreport.com/2017-2018-nba-offseason-review-houston-rockets-b1c7321cde38

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We all saw the injury that put Chris Paul on the sideline for a crucial game 7 in the Western Conference Finals. If you didn’t, then take a look:

Was that move completely necessary? Was there a better option that the superstar guard could have utilized? We may never know. What we do know is that without their floor general the Rockets lost Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors 101–92 in a series that lived up to the hype.

So now what? If you’re Houston you can lament the fact that Paul got injured, you can feign embarrassment that your team shot 7–44 from long distance, you can even blame the refs. The Warriors aren’t though, and instead of resting on their laurels with their second championship in three years, they went out and made move after move in free agency in order to strengthen their regime for next year’s campaign. If the Rockets want another shot at the champs, they must follow suit. Here’s how.

Goals:

• Maintain core players
• Replace lost assets with minimum-contract signings
• Land a big name free agent

These goals are pretty straight forward; if they want to have another shot at the title, then they need their best players ready to go. Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela were the big three for Houston so the priority is to keep them in Rockets red. As for losses (which will be covered in the next section) the Rockets need to do what they’ve done in the past; knock it out of the park in terms of signing players for small contracts. Much like the Philadelphia 76ers have done — signing players to one-year deals for minimum costs — the Rockets need to do as well.

The good news? They’ve done it before. Last year they signed Tarik Black, Luc Mbah a Moute and Gerald Green to small contracts that reaped big rewards. If they can take that same aggressiveness to this years batch of free agents, then they will continue to bolster a solid bench as well as replace the lost personnel. Lastly, is the Big Name Syndrome. With names like Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James and Paul George echoing throughout every organizations hallway, it’s imperative that the Rockets take advantage. They were one game away from the Finals and were the favorites to knock out Golden State, another superstar could only help.

Those are the goals for Houston. How did they fair? Let’s take a look.

Offseason Additions:

Draft

• De’Anthony Melton (46th overall pick)
• Vince Edwards (52nd overall pick, signed a one-year, $838,464 contract)

Free Agency

• Carmelo Anthony (one-year minimum contract)
• Michael Carter-Williams (one-year, $1.76 million contract)
• James Ennis III (two-year, $3.47 million contract)
• Isaiah Hartenstein (three-year, $3.9 million contract)
• Re-signed Gerald Green (one-year, $2.4 million contract)
• Re-signed Chris Paul (four-year, $160 million contract)
• Signed Clint Capela to extension (five-year, $90 million contract)

Subtractions

• Trevor Ariza (Phoenix Suns, one-year, $15 million)
• Luc Mbah a Moute (Los Angeles Clippers, one year, $4.3 million)

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Bringing Back Clint Capela

Clint Capela was in the conversation for Most Improved Player for a reason. He increased his averages in points, rebounds, steals and blocks while only playing about four more minutes per game in an offense that centered around the three-ball. If Paul and Harden represent Houston’s top guns, then Capela makes them the big three. Their record of 41–3 when the big three were on the court is reason enough to extend Capela to a new contract. He became a restricted free agent at the end of the 2017–18 season, and losing Capela was a non-starter for the Rockets. While Daryl Morey and the front office allowed the market to dictate Capela’s restricted free agency, Houston ended up maintaining the Swiss big man.

Lock him down they did, signing the big man to a five-year, $90 million (with incentives) contract that will keep him in H-Town for the foreseeable future. This deal represents the best of both worlds, Capela stays on a contract that doesn’t break the bank, and the team perfectly communicates his value. Win-win.

Head Coach Mike D’Antoni runs a simple offense; run-and-gun like he did with the Phoenix Suns, but turn around and play hard-nosed defense as well. Capela’s replacements (Nene and Ryan Anderson) are too slow, or too one-dimensional to fill the void that would have existed had he left, and would have provided no help in playing two-way basketball, thus furthering the case for Capela. His intricacy within this team is paramount, and his ability to run the pick-and-roll to perfection on one end, and then hold it down in the middle on the other is underrated, yet highly coveted.

I’ve talked about the pick-and-roll in Houston before, but it can’t be emphasized enough. When Paul or Harden run the point, Capela can set his patented hard screens and force the defense into a lose-lose situation. If they opt for option one — go underneath the screen — they leave them with more than enough space to bury their shots.

Elfrid Payton chooses to go under the screen, but then switches onto Capela leaving Harden with enough time for the three-ball

If they choose option two — fighting over the screen — then Capela will drop down into the lane and use his combination of quickness and footwork to get the easy bucket.

Bismack Biyombo opts to go over the screen, leading to the easy bucket for the streaking Capela.

This easy — and yet effective — offensive ploy led to Capela shooting 65.2 percent from the field — best in the league — while also recording a true shooting percentage of 65 percent (best of his career so far). His ability to play the pick-and-roll to perfection led to 80 percent of his field goal attempts coming within three feet of the basket. He converted on 72 percent of them, including 213 dunks throughout the season.

The Rockets faced some tough opponents throughout the Playoffs, including Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz and Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Capela bested them all. His on-court plus/minus was +9.6 in the regular season (through 74 games) and +4.2 in the Playoffs (17-game sample size), and his offensive and defensive ratings both increased during the Playoffs, as his offensive rating jumped from 126 to 132, and his defensive ratings went from 101 to 102.

We will never know what could have been had Paul not gotten injured in the Western Conference Finals, but there is no denying that if Houston wants a rematch with the Champs, then they will need Capela in the mix.

Capela wanted an extension in tune with the ones offered to Steven Adams and Gobert. While he did settle for slightly less, he ended up with financial security and returns to the perfect situation. Now, just like his Instagram post says, it’s time for Houston to Get It. Despite all the moves made in the West, they are still the best option to dethrone Golden State and with the other two players in the trio inked to long term deals, the nucleus in Houston stays intact.

Chris Paul Cashes In

Chris Paul is imperative to the success of the Rockets. However, his importance cannot hide his ludicrously expensive new contract. Paul is slated to make $160 million over the next four years, and is broken down so that he will earn $36.6 million in 2018–19, $38.5 million in 2019–20, $41.3 million in 2020–21 and $44.2 million in 2020–21. It makes sense. Paul was headed to free agency, and it wouldn’t have shocked many if he jumped ship for a team led by one of his closest friends in LeBron James.

Instead, the Rockets locked him in for their foreseeable future. Does he demand a maximum level contract? Maybe. But the 33-year old Paul has missed games in every season he has been in the league due to injury, except for the 2014–2015 season with the Los Angeles Clippers, where he played all 82 games. Again, I get it, he is the floor general — and one of the best, at that — but he has missed 45 regular season games in the last two seasons, and cannot be expected to suffer less injuries as he continues to get older.

Houston has made it work in the past by signing players to minimum-cost contracts, and they will need to do it again as they will owe the duo of Paul and harden a combined $66 million next season alone. That’s 55 percent of the team’s cap space! That type of commitment not only limits Houston’s ability to compete financially, but puts the onus on Paul to continue to play at an above-average level lest he becomes dead weight in the future. Not out of the question either, seeing as he will be 36 when this extension ends.

The duo of Paul and Harden is one of the best back-courts we’ve seen in the league, and we know that Harden will only continue to improve now that he secured the MVP trophy. Paul is on a limited timetable though. The window for him to make the Finals is closing, and with the amount of money he is getting for the next four years, it’s up to him to open it back up. If he can’t, then he can join the back-half of the banana boat crew — with future teammate Carmelo Anthony — as the ones who haven’t won a ring.

**Back Half of the Banana Boat((

Two banana boat references in one piece!

The group of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Paul make up the infamous banana boat gang. The only difference, is that the first two have NBA rings — and multiple ones at that. Anthony and Paul? Not so much, which makes it almost poetic that they may be joining forces soon.

Anthony represented the last “big name” in free agency left. LeBron, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Kevin Love, Jabari Parker, DeMarcus Cousins, Devin Booker, they are all off the market. Some have new addresses, some do not.

Houston needs Anthony. They lost their two best wing players in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and currently have the likes of P.J. Tucker and James Ennis slated to start at the forward spots.

Furthermore, Anthony needs Houston. He — much like Paul — has never made it past the Conference Finals. He is 34-years old and this will be his fourth team. Yes there was bad blood between him and D’Antoni in New York, but Anthony has to recognize that this is his best chance to compete for a championship — as opposed to waltzing into the Finals much like we’ve seen other players do in the past.

But would it work? I wrote about the fit in depth here, and concluded that Anthony can work in Houston’s scheme.

If Houston opts to play him at the four — which is where OKC had him — then we will see an offense that mirrors OKC’s; an offense that baits the defense with the threats of Paul, Harden and Capela on the pick-and-roll, and then finds Anthony on the perimeter for an uncontested shot.

You can see Anthony’s man slide in to help cover Paul George, leaving Melo open at the top of the key.

Conversely, if Anthony is the one to set the pick on Paul or Harden, then both players become dual threats. They are both dangerous from deep (Harden is a career 36 percent from three-point range, while Anthony is close at 35 percent), and equally adept at pick-and-pop style shots.

Anthony hits Westbrook with the double screen and then flairs out for the easy three.

If those options fail, we know how effective they both are at drawing contact in the lane.

Anthony with the easy layup in traffic.

Bringing in Anthony turns the Rockets Big Three into the Big Three-and-a-half. He is not as good as he once was, and his value has always come from his spot-up ability. His ego could be a problem, but seeing as he co-existed with the likes of Paul George and the equally ball-centric Russell Westbrook, I don’t see Houston being a problem for him.

The problem for Houston though, is his defense. Ariza and Mbah a Moute were Houston’s best wing defenders, and losing them is big. James Ennis may be able to replace the length and athleticism of the departed wings, but will he be expected to guard the opponents best? For the majority of his stint in New York Anthony dealt with poor coaching, poor teammates and bad records as a result. His effort on the defensive end was always in question as a result. Now that he is on a winning team (65 wins last season, the most in franchise history) the hope is that he will tune-in on the defensive end.

Anthony is perplexing. His offensive contributions are vastly superior to what Ariza and Mbah a Moute added, but his defense is a giant question mark. He has shown his ability to play the third — and sometimes the fourth — wheel in an offense, and has displayed how effective he can be playing behind stars who demand respect from the defense. He may be the key to get Houston past Golden State and to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in his — and Paul’s — career.

One game. Actually, not even one game. One play. That’s what ended up defining Houston’s season. They suffered some losses, and made some interesting signings as a result. Now, it’s time for it all to come together in what might be one of Paul’s and Anthony’s last attempts at reaching the upper echelon of NBA stardom.

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Contracts courtesy of Spotrac, statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference.

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