Aces in the Hole: Miami Heat (+4-4.5 @Milwaukee)

The Heat getting the short schrift from betting establishment tonite for bad reasons. One big reason the Heat are constantly sold short is bc they have no real star power. While Whiteside is awesome (rebounds, defense, known-entity-offense, sweeter shot than people give him credit) he's downplayed bc he wasn't a top draft pick. Dragic is a bit tired this year after expending max effort on his home country in the Summer Euro tournament (which he won along with superstar-to-be Luca Doncic-- a Luca Doncic whom Ainge will probably get thanks to the pathetic trading abilities of Bry-Bry ColangeLoser), but if he's playing in top form is one of the best PGs in the NBA. After those two semi-stars, the Heat are an island of misfit toys which Pat Riley's system transforms into killer Marines. On the flip side, Antetokounmpo the "Greek Freak" has been A-numero-uno topic of discussion by everone from basketball star-fnckers trying to predict "the next LeBron James" to fantasy stat geeks. This means Milwaukee has been constantly over-favored this year, while Miami has had the opposite effect for going on two years now. Betting on the team without the star power, assuming they are very good, is like having Aces in the Hole in poker. It's not showy, everyone doesnt' ooh and aah about your aces, but it's MUCH EASIER TO BET THEM and make money when no one knows you gottem, eh?

That's the fun story, now for the meat and potatoes on why you should bet about 1.75% AUM on the Heat + points (4.5 to 4.0 depending on where you go).

#1 Mispriced Star-power: see above

#2 Heat are a better team:
Don't believe us? How about checking the standings for proof?

#3 Injury not a factor in the positionless Heat schema
Tyler Johnson is one of our favorite players when healthy, but he's not been full health all year. Thus, the fact he's out tonite and Ellington will eat his minutes is actually a good thing, minus the discontinuity factor (see below)

#4 Don't turn down the Heat
Heat also mispriced bc they just lost to the turning-over Bulls. Two things about that game, #1 this was 2nd game of back-to-back for Heat, #2 Zach LaVine totally changes that team from what they were just a week ago. The fresh LaVine plus the tired Heat legs caused Bulls to shoot the lights out from 3 and FT line.

So why isn't this a bigger bet?

#1 Discontinuity
Whiteside hasn't been 100% yet this season, maybe that's building and this is the game for breakout back to his full potential, but we can't count on that. Same goes for Tyler Johnson, whose presence won't be missed as much as his recent continuity in the starting lineup. Adjustments, even if short in duration can cause problems for punts.

#2 Line change
While we like the line started at 4.5 and has moved to 4.0 already, indicating we're onto something, even a half point gives us some reservation as ties can really bust the ol' aggots.

So for those reasons, we're at 1.75% bet, which is more than 3x bigger than what's our minimum bet size of 0.5%.

Happy Punting Steemians!