Is everybody heading for the doors? The narrative and the truth.

There is a narrative currently doing the rounds. Lots of shrill voices predicting the end of steemit because everybody is leaving. The facts however just don’t support that narrative and those conclusions.

True… the steemit price is undergoing some bloodletting.

This is to be expected after the massive 2000% spike following the 4th of July euphoria and the redistribution of STEEM by major STEEM Power holders.

The baselines however indicate that a mature core of steemit users is developing and that the prophets of doom are simply frauds. Their prophesies have little to no basis in fact.

The blue line indicates users who visit the web site and leave immediately never to return. It is quite normal for this blue line to fluctuate wildly and is a good barometer of hype levels out there on the internet and in the media.

Every time there is some sort of hype it rapidly peaks only to fall right back down again shortly afterwards.

The red line is a baseline that measures returning or loyal users

We can see a slow downward trend over the last month, however this is not alarming. Just as with the price spike and subsequent bloodletting. The user spike was preceded by a number of spikes closely correlated with the hype phases indicated by the spikes in the blue lines.

What goes up rapidly is destined to come down as consolidation occurs.

The red line or loyal users have once again stabilized at 10 to 12 thousand users per day which is slightly higher than the pre-hype spikes about a month ago.

When we review the baselines by continent the facts become even clearer.

The massive hype spike was mainly limited to the Americas and so is the subsequent downtrend with only a slight disturbance in Europe.

Asia, Africa and Oceania remain very constant.

When we drill deeper into the data we see that the hype spike and subsequent downtrend was most prevalent in the USA and has stabilized at around 3000 visitors a day.

Europe shows that any slowdown has really been isolated to Northern Europe (red line)

When I look at these stats I simply see standard fluctuations followed by consolidation... hardly a "last one to leave please turn off the lights" scenario.