It's not about predictions - it's about probabilities. You'd do well to understand that.
RE: STEEM Price Analysis – May 30, 2017
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STEEM Price Analysis – May 30, 2017
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Again. No basis. None. Zero. Nada.
I can draw a chart with the probability of me farting after eating beans. That wouldn't make the chart correct or the probabilities relevant because eventually, I will fart.
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Well this was a joy to read. If all people trading are using these crystal balls to decide when to buy or sell, I should get one also! Or buy a monkey. Tough decision.
But in these emerging markets holding for few years will be the best option for majority.
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no one can beat the market. paying attention to those who do is the same as trying to get advice from people who won the lottery.
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It's true that no one can be right 100% of the time. That is why people use stop loss so it doesn't matter if you are right or wrong. Even if you're right only 30-40% of the time, you will profit if you use stop loss the right way as you cut the losses fast and let winners ride. But that is just my opinion and it was interesting to hear yours.
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what i meant is that your short term predictions, long term, will be less profitable than just holding.
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It all depends on what long term is in this case. When looking at cycles of Bitcoin for example, we can see several boom and bust cycles that took a year or so to play out. Those are perfect for people who still want to trade but not watch charts 24/7. That way only 1-2 trades a year would be required. I agree that trading over very short period of times isn't worth it unless one has very high capital to play with to make it worth while and really knows what he is doing, specially in these unregulated markets.
People trying to play these small moves can burn themselves resulting them to miss out on the big move in bigger timeframe. Not worth it.
Edit: also many of the cryptocurrencies don't even have their product launched or like Steem are just getting started. We are in the start of some major moves and are lucky to be here.
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Exactly. This is why I advice people to stay out of day-to-day analysis. its bullshit really. it's like watching the wind blow leafs, trying to determine whether a storm is coming. The perspective is too narrow and the factors beyond computation. More or less naive understanding of statistics and math.
Take for example last week's crypto bubble whistlers. Every single one failed due to naive patternicity — a common confirmation bias mistake. By the time they got out it would have corrected. The hodlers won.
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Technical analysis, especially price action based stuff like this isn't a crystal ball.
It just lays out the context of the market, is it trending, ranging or reversing?
Then decides places to get in and out based on probabilities and the potential for an edge.
Alot of TA is just about understanding the context and psychology of the participants. Which loosely follow patterns.
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evidence?
wouldn't that be counter-intuitive in a world where 3 companies in China control the prices of BTC? They can Picasso those "lines" and fool the day-to-day gamblers. ...and they do.
same applies for the FIAT world. Read "Flash Boys" and you will understand.
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I've read flash boys and day traded professionally for the last 6 years, maybe you'd understand if you actually made a living from trading.
There are so many basic TA strategies that have an edge in the markets it's ridiculous. Not that I'd ever use anyone elses strategies, but Linda Raschke for example, throughout her career offered up dozens of TA strategies that did well for years after she released them. Check out the turtle traders.
Price analysis takes advantage of the fact that markets have inertia. When they trend they usually keep trending, when they range they usually keep ranging. That's all there is to it from a method perspective.
Then you just control your risk over a series of trades to take advantage. Something as simple as looking at price bounce between 5 and 10 and buying 5s while selling 10s will make you money. Then cutting it once it breaks. That's price action analysis.
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I am not doubting its existence. I am doubting its efficiency.
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Is that why you choose to attack people who write about it and claim that it's all "snake oil" and "bullshit." Because you're just "doubting its efficiency?" If you comprehend what it is and have genuine doubt, there are better ways to go about expressing that.
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attack? I am debating man. chillax :). I do that with everybody. I am bit allergic to bullshit.
All you have to do is make counter arguments. There are plenty of evidence that TA is plain, unfiltered bullshit. Just because there are probabilities involved doesn't make it valid. Lottery has probabilities involved as well.
and guess what. The amount of traders that do make it at the end resemble the distribution of lottery winners. Now how about that?
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Don't fall into the trap of hindsight bias. Sure the crypto markets are incredibly bullish and right now it looks like people that just held on did very well.
What you're forgetting is the variance and relative drawdowns you experience with this route.
If I had just held my ETH from 2015 until now I'd have done a little better than my portfolio at the moment. Instead I traded it and used TA to control my risk. I'm happy I did that however as I've had a much smoother equity curve without any crazy drawdowns.
If you teach some random moron off the street some TA and think that's all you need to have to make money in the markets then I'm all with your interpretation.
Like anything in trading, it's a tool to be used within a wider context of additional tools, experience and your own personality with the market you're trading.
Discounting it the way you do is just as bad as people that think it's a magical 100% prediction tool.
In my own experience it's helped me massively and something that I use daily. For some of the other guys in the office they don't use it at all... It's all about finding your best fit.
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