Sixteen Dollars or Sixteen Cents? Where Is Steem Price Heading First?

davemccoy (63) in steem • 7 years ago

$16 <--------------?????-------------> $0.16

I am going to write two different articles outlining 2 separate scenarios that I see unfolding for the steem price. But before I write them, I thought I would take a quick poll and let everyone get their opinions on the permanent record of the blockchain.

So here is the question:

Starting today, what price barrier for steem will be hit first:

A: US$16

B: US$0.16

Any comments explaining your rationale are welcomed and encouraged!

steem crypto money contest poll

7 years ago by davemccoy (63)

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journeyoflife (67) · 7 years ago

It can’t fall that low , Steem has a lot of potential . I’ll be predicting it towards the $16 path

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Hi @journeyoflife! I hope you are right and you are definitely in the consensus.... I am very happy with what I have and will hold it way past $16... Thank you for weighing in on my post and giving your thoughts, it is always nice to get opinions from steemians that have been here longer than me!

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journeyoflife (67) · 7 years ago

I can’t believe the market crash that just happened . Was so shocked to wake up and see that

curatorcat (67) · 7 years ago

Assuming for a moment that the path forward is NOT blocked by weird Federal legislation around the world, and that "blockchain technology" remains viable and cutting edge for many applications...

Given also that we are talking about the STEEM token here (not Steemit the social site) AND that Steem keeps getting top ratings by investment services because our blockchain is super fast AND that we potentially have "social developments" happening in terms of the development of SMTs... I would say that $16 is most likely reachable 1st.

But it's not going to happen quickly. Steem is becoming more and more of a "utility coin" than most of the investor market darlings, and I think that likely will reduce volatility because the purely speculative and rumor driven aspect will be lower. So when I say "$16 first" I'm thinking we might reach $7 by the end of 2018, $12 by the end of 2019 and $16 in mid-2020. Slow and steady, not fast and furious.

What will happen to Steemit — the social site — as part of that mix, I don't know. It may become of less and less importance as part of the overall picture... all depends how we take it and run with it. If the "community driven" influences manage to stay strong, we might thrive... slowly... and end up a stable blogging site with 4-5 million users by the time Steem hits $16.

I see the 16 cent scenario as much less likely... would require the ball to be dropped completely on SMTs, and for Steemit (as the "flagship front" for the coin) to become nothing but a pit of bots, scammers and spammers... in which case investors would see NO reason to hold Steem, and "real" content creators would gradually leave.

=^..^=

apshamilton (64) · 7 years ago (edited)

I think you are right @curatorcat.
It seems to me that the desire for attention (for either commercial or personal purposes) will keep the Steem price up because if it drops people will buy in so they can increase the attention their posts get. Attention is not just about direct financial returns on Steemit, its about feeling like people are listening to what you are saying - that has real value. Also, if you are pushing some commercial angle attention has clear value - its what drives the whole internet advertising market. So I'd say $16.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

very good and insightful reply @curatorcat! I have now recorded your rationale and you are on the permanent record! Very good info and thought process :D

jan23com (50) · 7 years ago

From someone who knows everything about nothing and nothing about everything. I will tell you straight up the 16 is most likely of the 2, 1st reason humanity, there are so many that should hold an interest in this happening that a small loss now by a re distribution of vote could provide the growth to the platform that is needed to push this to happen.
The more people who have the vote value of the threshold means more users can be rewarded and encouraged to stay on the platform.
Sharing those big boy votes out can work to be of greater benefit to their finances then directing them toward already high rewarded content. Too much focus is set on the now by the need from plankton and the ability by whales at opposing ends of the scale in many cases. Altering the distribution of vote and reward of them in some voluntary ways could vastly increase membership and the ability to grow these new members. ok that went a bit off topic maybe.

then also you have to consider in general will the price of crypto increase? I think so, Bitcoin will regain its feet and grow some more. growth in other currencies might also influence the growth of bitcoin.
The wider knowledge of Crypto being ever more accessible to everyone Such as posts on Steemit and other platforms, the media coverage. this all leads to a higher price. Each new user to the platform too also increases the scarcity of Steemit and will increase the value, Getting more in is the easy part keeping them here is where the work comes in.

It may not hit $16 but it will rise

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

very good insight @jan23com! I appreciate you taking the time to write out your thoughts and give your opinions... You are now on the blockchain record as to your prediction and I look forward to seeing what the future holds for all of us!

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sames (65) · 7 years ago

$16-some terrible has to happen to steem for it drop to 16 cent

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago (edited)

You are on the record! :)

ecuadorhomestead (55) · 7 years ago

I hope it goes to 16 dollars I do not know if it will.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

thank you for the input... I hope you are right too ;)

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sparkesy43 (59) · 7 years ago

I'll say $16, and that is purely tossing a coin - Heads Up, Tails Down.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

You and your coin are on the record @sparkesy43! Thanks for answering! :)

enforcer48 (68) · 7 years ago

Neither. STEEM will stuck in limbo in the middle.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Now that is a bold prediction!... I think you will be in the minority on that one, but since I didn't have a time limit on it, it will be hard for you to get any satisfaction of being right :P

charisma777 (56) · 7 years ago

I think 16 before 0.16 unless you know something we don't and if so do tell!! I'm not at all sure of the logistics of everything!

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I don't know anything :P @charisma777... That's why I am going to write up both scenarios based on things I've seen... You are on the record now, lets see what happens in the future! :D

themanwithnoname (64) · 7 years ago

That's going to be interesting to see. I'm going to say $16 just because it could get pretty scary around here if it dropped to $0.16. I can imagine a lot of people leaving because a drop like that could indicate that Steem is done. Or it could be a great time to buy and then reap the rewards. (See what happened with Dominos Pizza. Those who bought at the low made thousands of percent gain on investment.)

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I agree with both major points... it would seem like its going to be dead and buried... but if it rose from that, the people that hung in would be millionaires... I started to write about it and then I thought, I wonder what other people think is going to happen first... I now see my answer, all think it will be $16 first (except one that thinks neither)... It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, that is for sure ;)

Always great to hear from you blondie! :) Thanks for the opinion and glad you got put on record here in the blockchain with your answer!

themanwithnoname (64) · 7 years ago

I'm not sure I know where it's going to go. I think I'd have to say it's more likely to go to $16 than $0.16 because that would take a major loss of faith for it to drop that far, but a good month or two and the price could fairly easily pump. Therefore, my choosing $16 is not because I think it will happen as a result of what I see taking place, but more a bet against it going down to $0.16. Clear as mud? Perfect!

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Yes that is even clearer than mud... I get it completely Blondie! It will be interesting to see how this process unfolds with time!

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abh12345 (76) · 7 years ago

$16 It will rise with the rest of the sector and get a push late summer when SMTs finally arrive!

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Are they really coming? I don't have as much understanding as you would on this topic!

And you are on the record!

enforcer48 (68) · 7 years ago

IF they arrive. Am I right?

Pardon my cynicism surrounding the recently resurfaced @ned.

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davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I am interested in the answer too... They seem to be something that will give a huge lift, but I'm not sure where they are in the process.

glenalbrethsen (68) · 7 years ago

It looks like the prevailing thought is $16 here. I like @curatorcat's rationale (thank you for the walkthrough).

That said, I readily admit that I have no idea. What gives anything value? Logic or perception? Utility or flash? Long term scalability or scarcity?

I really don't know. Probably any of that individually or in combination.

STEEM is a little over two years old. It has nearly a million accounts on the blockchain (we may be saying nearly for a while). The fact it's flagship app is still in Beta, but more importantly, doesn't look that dramatically different than it did a year ago, with maybe some differences under the hood, isn't helpful. How hurtful it is, who knows.

My hope is this. We don't see $0.16 USD STEEM again. If we do, I want to know why. I want to know what specific market forces or sentiment caused it to drop that low, when it feels like a higher floor has been established.

So, I don't know. I'm extremely interested in the outcome, but despite all the logical sounding reasoning, and my own rationale, I don't want to go down as saying that $0.16 wasn't possible before $16. Or for that matter, vice versa.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I plan on writing about some of the factors that determine the price. I would say that you have several obvious ones that make it have value... 1) its utility as a technology (relative to the others... bitcoin, eth, eos, etc)... That would be determined by the app makers that want to use it as a backbone of their projects. (steemit being just one app for it) ... 2) the value of steemit app could drive demand... The more useful and wanted any app is on the steem platform would create a desire for (or demand) for the coins that is the means of ownerships. Put another way, there is only a limited number of mvests (which is what we actually own when we get SP). If more people in the future have a demand for those mvests, the the fixed number of mvests theoretically should go up based on demand.

There are other factors at play to and therein lies the hardest part to guess. And one of the biggest is the overall long term viability of the blockchain itself. Are the governments around the world going to enable them to continue to grow and flourish without putting their paws on the process? Left alone by the leading world govt's, then the value of all the cryptos will continue to grow due to ease of transfer of money as well as a favorable tax treatement (for most people few really pays taxes on it yet). However, if the govts start to get involved and make laws that require rigid rules, then you might see massive flight out of crypto space in the period between the when its announced and when the rules go into effect.

The bulls will say that it has already surpassed the government's ability to control it...

The bears will say that the govts just want to let it develop enough so that then they can come in and replace it (or put their stamp of approval on the few they decide will be agree to be controlled).

I tend to side with the bears in the long run, but basically because I have been stopped number times on a plane flight out of the country to see if I have more than 10k in cash on me.... If they will take the time to put agents in the field at all airports to make sure we don't take $10k out of the country (out of their purview), then my guess is they won't let the people that create and run these cryptos get away without paying their "fair share"... Don't forget the governments are you partner (they get paid when you win, but don't share in the losses).

I hope this helps! I did a IF comment on this one ;)

apshamilton (64) · 7 years ago

Great reply to your stimulating first post @davemccoy. I see you are worried about government intervention, which is not surprising since you are in the US and the SEC has gone mad!
There are 3 main reasons why government is not such a threat to crypto as you might imagine:

Jurisdictional competition - many countries would love to take the US's title of the finance & tech leader of the world. Many are taking a far more benign, non-interventionist approach, some are actively courting crypto firms. Australia, UK, Israel, Malta, Gibralta, Switzerland are just a few of the US allies who are doing this (many US adversaries are also trying in their own way). Nations that support crypto will benefit and those that stifle it will suffer - that is the nature of both freedom and new technology (crypto is both).
Democracy - As the number of people involved in crypto grows its starts having an impact at the ballot box. We are seeing this first in South Korea where the people forced the government to back down on a draconian crypto ban.
Constitutional limits - In the US at least, Free Speech is Constitutionally protected - and blockchain based cryptocurrencies are pure free speech. I've written more and this here and here.

The world is a much bigger and more diverse place than just the US, which is having real problems with its entire system of government right now.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I appreciate your points and hope they come true... I would love to see the world get away from the debt based currencies of the major world governments. I understand you might be right and I am paying attention. My experience is the governments aren't going to give up without a massive fight. But maybe they're in on it from the beginning and this is a planned transition.

We will see and I definitely appreciate your points and even more for you taking to time to explain it to me!

glenalbrethsen (68) · 7 years ago

I look forward to your posts.

I don't know the nuances, and I would never stick my neck out with technical analysis, but I do get concepts. The problem is, there are more forces at work than meets the eye, and government involvement or lack thereof is one of the biggest. There's little doubt in mind that they're watching the cryptos, and have been for a long time. They do have a tendency to let things go, see where they're going to go, in the cases of bad things, let them fester, for those things that might be considered good, let them grow to a point, but then put obstacles in their way to stunt growth without squashing them out right. Tax them, regulate them, and take from them as much as they possibly can.

At the same time, you have the money grabbers who sometimes even work in cahoots with the government to take advantage of decisions or actions that will drive price up and down regardless of the intrinsic value of the stock or commodity. Thankfully, these guys mostly go after the big stuff, but even little stuff can look tantalizing under the right conditions.

So, it's all this insider trading information that no one is privy to outside a privileged few that largely direct what is going on, with little or rhyme or reason other than to increase wealth or secure power. Any of us would be put in jail if we acted on such information. They can do whatever they want with impunity.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

That I completely agree with... You nailed it perfectly! We can only hope to guess where they are taking us by the actions that unfold... Same in the real markets too, they can make anything happen anytime they want (good or bad).

bashadow (65) · 7 years ago

I would say $16.00 before $0.16. Now why that pick. Well when you have two of the most egotistical my shit don't stink people telling you that crypto is pretty much garbage, (Buffet, Gates), then I think they are trying to drive it down a little as they buy some up. Sort of taking a Jimmy Diamond stance poo-poo it then buy it. So up it goes. After a very small downturn.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I noticed that little reverse promotion today too... All over the news how it was going to be worth nothing... I agree that is for a purpose... Not sure if it is to buy in and then pump it up, or if they want to be "on the record" right before a big smash down.... Keeping my eyes open both ways!

You are on the record @bashadow! ;)

rentmoney (68) · 7 years ago

There is no doubt in my mind that Steemit or another site like it is the future of social media. I see both prices just as likely as the other. So for me it boils down to .... Do I think Steemit will survive or will someone come out with a more user friendly version of Steemit.

If Steemit makes the right adjustments then $16 + is more then possible in the near future but in order for that to happen ... this place needs to become more newbie friendly. And what I mean by newbie friendly is .... sign ups need to be automatic. ... the difference in the newbie up-vote value compared to members with the max up-vote needs fixing. One vote should not equal thousands of other votes. It just discourages any new sign ups and they leave the platform out of frustration ( which isn't good for anyone ).

$16 is my answer to your question.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Thank you for the clarification of your reasons and your answer! You are recorded and let's see what happen @rentmoney! ;)

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professorhobo (42) · 7 years ago

I'm here for the amateurs who like to read & write first & quite frankly I don't give a hoot abut the rewards. I cheer the drops in prices because I know that it sees an exodus in people who's emotional driver is greed.
As a site for aspiring authors, journalists & photographers it's a winner.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Awesome attitude Professor ... :)

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gillianpearce (65) · 7 years ago

I agree with @curatorcat, @davemccoy.

I think Steem has a good future ahead. Steemit not so much. Each week there is something else spammy that is added to the mix. This week, for example, was the first time I'd heard of the tiny vote scam. I've noticed it but didn't realise it was a way to make money from new spam accounts.

SMTs, so far, side like they might make a big difference as far as investors are concerned.

You're points about governments stepping are interesting though @davemccoy. I've been wondering about that myself. 😊

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

I do think it will be interesting to see how all these various factors come out in the end... Its like a giant experiment in some way! Thanks for your opinions again! Lets see where this goes together! :)

gillianpearce (65) · 7 years ago

It's definitely very experimental @davemccoy. I'm looking forward to your two follow up posts! 😊

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

thank you Gillian!

maverickinvictus (64) · 7 years ago

Well even with all the drama in Steemit I would say that it just one part of the equation.

Steem itself will do a lot of things and with more apps being developed and hivemind around the corner I see that it will gain more traction.

@ned has been appearing in more interviews, going to more talks so that is a step in the right direction.

SMT will definitely help out so we willgo to 16 dollars.

Unless there is a monumental fuck up I don't think that Steem will ever get to .16 cents but then the Crypto market is always speculative

Maybe Haejin will start telling people that Steem is a crap coin and they listen to him after all the raping he has done hahahha.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

lol... funny Mav... I don't think it will be any of the whales that will drive the price lower on purpose... But I have heard lots of good things about the smart tokens, I can understand the concept, but I am wondering when we will start seeing them. I have heard late summer, if so that's not very long

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crypto-econom1st (57) · 7 years ago

I would say 16.

In the end it could become 0.16. But right now it seems to take ages before there is a better competitor. And people still think this has a future, while I don't think it has in its current appearance.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Thanks for giving your pick along with your rationale... It will be recorded here and we will be able to reference it here one day! And the great thing is, we will see ;)

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steemfuture (53) · 7 years ago

Definitely $16 like many said if something would be happening soon do spread the news. But for crypto to drop like that something will happen to bitcoin too. What if it is going to 16 I would definitely jump to moon.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Well that would be something that I would like to see, you jumping to the moon :) ... I like to hear your answer and your thoughts about it happening! You are now on the record too!!!

wholeself-in (57) · 7 years ago

I say $16, because I don't think it's that hard to hit. It was already at $9 once, so if all crypto surges again this year there you go.

To hit 0.16, either STEEM or all crypto has to collapse significantly, and I really doubt that this year.

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

Thank you for the reasoning and for the prediction! You are now recorded on the blockchain and can always find where you made the bold prediction! ;)

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gustavomonraz (51) · 7 years ago

To the infinite and beyond!

davemccoy (63) · 7 years ago

You are on the record @gustavomonraz! When it hits infinity, you will be able to come back here and say "I called it" :P

gustavomonraz (51) · 5 years ago

.16...

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davemccoy (63) · 5 years ago

yes, sadly it was 16c and not $16... Its ok, maybe we can hit em both! ;)

tybodish (63) · 7 years ago

Dave you gotta post your own content more so I can like it. Lol

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