I'm not try to take sides or be divisive. As an investor in both, I just want to talk about what I think this mean, or what it means to me.. and to ask you what it means to you?
In Steem's fairness not that long ago, on May 24th the 24 hour volume was 60 million USD. Also in fairness EOS has surpassed 3 billion USD trading volume in 24 hours. I have the feeling in the near future EOS volume will even surpass Ethereum's by volume. For Steem in the near future to pass Ethereum's volume would require close to 60x the volume. Steem has a working product that 60,000 active accounts who make 160,000+ posts. That is impressive, but its not equating to an increasing userbase or trading volume. Knowing that we have had over 1 million accounts created makes the 60,000 active users look less impressive though. Not the greatest turnover rate.
I have thought lots about this. Not bothering to post in a while, just sitting back, contemplating carious aspects of life and the cryptospace. I would like to air out some fears I have about the future, Steems future, my future.
Steem choosing to focus on SMT's before they perfected what has given Steem it's name was shortsighted. Hivemind should have came first. The niche SMT will have implementing with existing media sites would have been more apparent once EOS was out to compare to. We could have, should have worked to keep users, and increase the userbase first. As it is, I am afraid we are a blockchain platform trying to compete out of our league. Do you disagree?
Ono is NOT the competitor to Steemit @dan has hinted at. It is a competitor though. I can almost feel this happening.. Dan is going to make the competitor himself. Or have a lot to do with it. You have heard people refer to Blockone selling Ethereum dropping the ETH price, though when they raise ETH in the crowdsale that is obviously going to happen. Dan holds more Steem than was even traded over this 24 hour period, his Steem is not powered up. We might eventually see a massive Steem selloff to coincide with the new EOS social media that he creates. Sadly I have to say without him even selling Steem,, as long as he has a fair distribution, the trade volume and the active userbase could surpass Steem in short order. i have almost 6,000 Steem. I am not powering down, I have never powered down.
I think competition creates the best products. the user is most benefited when there are several choices. In a response to a comment I made during 'The Great Aggrandizement" a while back @ned had said that him, steemit, and the SMT are ready for the competition. They encourage it an agree that it is good for the users. I just want to know how they are ready, I want a game plan, a road map. Some hope to throw in the air and shout about. I will probably go down in the wave of sell walls Dan unloads on us even though I see it coming. I will try my best to hedge myself to be sure. I am sorry if this feels like a betrayal to Steem. I just think its preparing for the worst, and having the foresight to contemplate it.
I really really really would like to know what you all think about this? Am I wrong? Tell me about the knowledge I am missing from making an informed decision, and having the the correct foresights?
Thanks for taking the time.
Woot woot,
EOS has along way to go. It may be 18 months before dan has the time to get his Steemit competitor put together. Ethereum had a lot of crazy shit happen over the years. EOS may not have the same scaling problems, but I can guarantee that some unforseen shit is going to challenge the EOS community within the first 24 months. I guess it's sexy and cool for people to talk about the shiny new blockchain on the block.
STEEM has the userbase and the benefit of a decentralized stake-weighted funding mechanism to bootstrap new developers. I have digested both the STEEM and SMT whitepapers and feel extremely comfortable with the direction that STEEM is going in.
Btw, dan selling a million STEEM wont have a significant impact on the STEEM markets.
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I talked to an EOS person on Telegram and got this reply...
As you said I also think they will have some big challenges ahead and needing to prove themselves to do something. I can also see that EOS attracts a lot of cool kids that wants to jump on the next Blockchain project... Steem is useable right now and have a big head start... If some EOS users are barely right now interested in Steem then why would they be interested in EOS social media? But I hope all succeeds since I think that will only be win-win for everyone.
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It is true that it must be tested and withstand time as Steem has. I pointed out that Steem has 1 million accounts and 60k active users which indicate it has been through some time. There are 100's of newer blockchains to talk about. Steem and EOS are much more related than other chains though. I also agree that it may take Dan some time to release a competitor. Much less that 18 months. He made Steem in 1 year. EOS has much of what he had to do building Steem already built into it. So I will guess competition is less than a year away. Ono will be out in a month or two. It will be the first able competition.
BTW? that was my point. If a sell off of Steem coincided with the launch of Dan's new steemit. Don't be suprised. Currently Dan has more Steem than was even traded today. Hopefully Steem's 24 hour volume wont be so low when that time comes, but it will have a big impact on the price even if temporarily.
One thing all of this new tech, and new hardforks will never be able to fix.. is the distribution. Ned and Dan both say it was never the way they wanted it. All the articles that came out pointing it out, calling Steem a scam.. it gave them a valid point. Granted that was a long time ago. Steem is still standing here, Dan came and left. Steem is still standing. I just am not so sure that 4 million USD volume in 24 hours is all that healthy.
I hold much more Steem than I do EOS. So having Steem succeed is in my best interest. I as an investor, and a user am just worried.
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Dan has said in articles that he creates systems based on that most humans are kind. So I don't think he has any plans to crash some project he himself was a big part of haha. The only people that needs to be worried will be short term Lambo bag holders.
Shouldn't forget that it's the amazing tech we should be looking at. How it makes our life easier when it comes to build up networks of trust and relationships. I had 1 day where I got upvoted by 3 different million dollar Steemit accounts. This ability to have easier access to investors is a total paradigm shift.
Just go back 2 years ago this did not exist. 1 whale upvote on this powerful network on the video side is like getting 150,000 YouTube views instantly. The time we are saving is insane! Just because of more effective and optimised systems for exchanging value.
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I can understand your concerns vis a vis @dan and his Steem holdings, however there is more than one reason he may be holding that Steem, and not merely in order to use it to dump so as to attract new users to EOSit, or whatever Steemit competitor he's knocking together.
Stake-weighting has created the horrific churn we have seen on Steemit IMHO, as it simply perpetuates the exact same principle IRL that creates banksters. Here we get whalebots, and meet the new boss same as the old boss. @ned has learned a great deal about this issue from sticking to his knitting and manning his post over the last two years, things @dan has not.
There's no point futuretripping regarding shiny new threats that haven't materialized yet, either.
@dan may well hold that Steem for various reasons, which could include a sneaking suspicion that @ned is going to pull it off, and moon Steem one of these days. He'd be a fool not to.
Remember: the first rule of fight club is not to invest based on emotion. Don't invest based on emotion, but remember that you invested in Steem for good reasons that are still true. Fear is the enemy of reason.
Thanks!
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I thought Ned moved us to stake weighted voting. It used to be the more upvotes you got the more those upvotes were worth, granted large holders vote still counted. Just not as much. then it moved and my little 2 cent upvote was worth significantly more. It was more based on my Stake.
Ned is the person who has made voting the way it is. Whalebots are his. Dan's model still left us with low power robot voting armies though.
Am I interpreting Stake-weighting wrong? Or did you not know it was Ned who has gave it to us?
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Stake-weighting was always a feature of Steem from inception. Both @dan and @ned, AFAIK, were in agreement regarding it from the outset. The change you speak of was the change to linear rewards from N^2, or exponential, rewards.
Stake-weighting has immense power on the platform, as the whales have it, and want to keep it, and have valid concerns about anything that might threaten that. @ned has achieved something extraordinary in the combination of SMTs, oracles, and communities, because that particularly isn't a threat to stake-weighting, as the various mechanisms can be coterminous experiments that do not impact stake-weighting except by creating various discrete experiments that can sidestep it.
This allows the whales to continue their present hegemony, while also learning from those experiments, and if 1a1v blows up, they remain free to take advantage of the new thing that works better than what they know.
It's quite clever, genius even. I doubt @dan can compete with that wealth of experience that @ned has gained from helming the ship of Steemit through the heavy waters it has foundered through, and that has enabled @ned to come to such an elegant solution--many potential crowdsourced solutions--to the very churn causing problem that stake-weighting is.
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Well the stake weight was much less apparent before the linear reward changes. It was at that point that everything changed. Those are all very good and interesting points. I will indeed have to do more research on oracles and SMTs.
So in this path you talk about Steemit and busy die and are replaced by a better SMT. Steem still holds value though for voting on block producers? I have yet to understand how SMT's add value to Steem. They cost very little to produce. They dont require you to hold Steem in order to get bandwidth for the SMT either do they?
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SMTs will be transferable for Steem, and growth SMTs experience will be growth for Steem.
Steemit and Busy don't necessarily die. Communities off chain may eclipse them, or communities on one or the other, or both, may well contribute to their growth. The combination of oracles, SMTs, and communities are almost infinite in potential, and this is the magical thing about them together, rather than merely as separate forks.
While I would have preferred @ned and Stinc were more forthcoming about the development of these projects over the last months, as the complexity of the possibilities must have taken some time to absorb and gain command of, I can now understand why there was such resounding silence as they figgered them out.
Confusing us wouldn't have done any good, and until they had a good grasp of them, blathering about them would certainly have confused us.
SMTs can work on platforms like Youtool, Fakebook, and CNN.com as well as any site that has a comment section (and probably more too), not only on Steem based interfaces. They can literally take over the world, and deliver it to Steem.
Will they? The really cool thing is, that's not up to @ned, or Stinc. It's up to us. We can do anything thing with them we want, and that crowdsources their potential to moon. There's a lot of genii out there. Some of them are gonna do amazing things with SMTs.
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I feel the anxiety. I have enough invested in STEEM that prices falling too much more than what they've done is a concern. Anything new that launches can look formidable on paper, though, and then comes the reality.
I know a lot of people are keen on ONO. And maybe they're right to be. Maybe I shouldn't be so down on it because it's coming out of China. The Chinese government has been smart enough to allow enough capitalism to take place in their country to try to keep things afloat while they're polluting major parts of it and building vast ghost cities to try to keep up.
We shall see. I agree, though, the competitor probably comes from Larimer himself. He's got the experience from the first one. I suppose it depends on just who he has around him that actually knows social media, and whether or not all of his quirks, rather than just the productive ones, make it through. While Ned is still here and at times can be the convenient whipping boy, Dan has had his moments, too.
Then, of course, it will be up to the EOS community that builds up around the social media and the rest of the blockchain to decide what they're going to do. Are they going to go the way of all history, or will they finally create something that changes the world, and endures? History isn't on their side, but neither was it on the side of the founding fathers, either. Too bad that's all been sorely corrupted over time. Or maybe not. We wouldn't find ourselves on the cusp of another giant leap forward, if it weren't for more than a century of mucking things up. :)
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@dan's quirks are a good point. @ned has recently spoken about how stake-weighting has been a negative impact on growth of Steemit, and he's right. @dan is probably not in agreement, and this will affect any social media he creates, probably to the point that it won't be social media at all, but merely some kind of marketing or currency mule.
Thanks!
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And from a bootstrapping a cryptocurrency economy point of view like Dan has, marketing a currency mule makes perfect sense. Trying to do that from a social media platform that generally acts, as constituted, to not incentivize engagement and curation, thus turning people off from it, maybe not-so-much.
So, somewhere in all of this that goes on here, and whatever else is about to hit, STEEM needs to find its identity so it can be marketed and become the worldwide decentralized cryptocurrency it was supposedly created to be. I only say supposedly, not because I don't believe it can be, but because there always seems to be someone somewhere doing either something to go against it, or nothing to go with it, outside of all the community members here just trying to hang on to each other and the dream. :)
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Having been here for both I am not 100% where I stand. I only know for certain both Ned and Dan regret the initial distribution of Steem. It has made it an unfair game from the start. I defend most aspects of Steem, the first few months are not something I am able to though.
I also think a big enough, good enough community could overcome that initial unfair distribution though. I still have hope for this place. I will have to wait for Ned to get done talking about it and taking pictures of himself flying around though to see.. once some actual work gets done. Like the EOS blockchain is theoretical. So is SMT, smarthive/communities, and many other things that are in the pipeline for Steem. What we have is a working blockchain. When the busy website is better to use than the Steemit website. That kind of sucks. Because Steemit holds so much power, yet they allow a third party website to show up and exceed them. It all run on Steem and benefits the blockchain though, so that is good at least.
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Regarding busy.org, I reckon both @ned and I consider that a strength of Steemit. When I was a market research manager in Austin (yeah, a whole 'nuther me) I was desperate to promote talent from the pool that worked for me, because nothing could improve the prospects of the whole organization more than hot talent on the way up, and even if it cast shade on me, it would be shade I deserved and would benefit me by showing me ways I could improve my personal performance, as well as my interests in the company, AND by inspiring folks that worked for me to strive to their utmost, knowing I not only had their back, but wanted them to eclipse me if they could.
Humility is strength, not a weakness. When our children become greater than us, are we not proved great by their achievements? I sure hope so, 'cuz my sons are all better men than I am =)
Edit: I should probably mention that no one I managed to promote ever cast shade on me, and none ever broke the records I set within three months of taking the position. I claim only that by not seeking to keep anyone below me, but doing all I could to promote them, everyone below me was inspired and felt empowered to do their very best.
It was also a lot of fun, working with happy people. Culture matters.
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I consider it a strength of Steem. I consider it a weakness of Steemit though. Steemit is a social media website, the first on the Steem blockchain. Busy is a late coming, quickly surpassing competitor that uses the same blockchain. Steem benefits from both. Steemit, not so much. I havent logged into Steemit on my PC in 4 months now probably. The site sucks.
I do completely agree with most everything you say. I always appreciate seeing you and Glen in my comments.
I would just like to note the irony of "When our children become greater than us, are we not proved great by their achievements." .. Steem was birthed from Bitshares, it proved greater. EOS is now birthed from Steem. Is your quote an indication of what is to come lol?! I know what you meant but i had to say it haha
Like I said I will hold my coins and go down with the ship if I must because I really love this place. It would be stupid not to point out the iceberg before we hit it in the hopes that someone turn the ship clear.
It also would be very beneficial if people could sign up directly through Busy, as it is they have to go to Steemit. Which means it is the landing page and should look and feel good to use.
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I don't think anyone would desire you to fail to take advantage of a better platform, such as busy. I did try to use Busy a few months ago, and didn't 'get' it, so I came back to Steemit which is simple enough for me to functionally use.
I avoid unnecessary learning curves so that the time I spend isn't spent learning every new shiny UI, but can be spent using them.
That idea about signing up from more interfaces with Steem is great! Have you considered making a pull request on Github so devs can consider it?
Going down with the ship, if EOS or something derived from EOS is so much better isn't what I would expect you to do. I expect you'll see how much better it is, and start using it, and be there on the improved platform so deeply entrenched that you'll barely notice Steemit going down.
If it's really that much better, you'll profit from the improvement more than you'll lose in mere money in that case. Money is merely a veil behind which true wealth is concealed.
This is why so many people spend so much money on hookers and blow. What investment could be better than the glorious memories of an old man?
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You are right of course. Though this community holds a place in my heart so I would most definitely feel it!
What could be better than the glorious memories? Why, more hookers and blow of course!
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LEL
I too am quite fond of Steemit--but that's mostly the people I've been privileged to engage with here. They'll be wherever we're going, too.
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I think if they put out a Steem 2, as has been hinted at, it will create a huge amount of hype.
Many people are going to be sad/mad anytime you throw money in the mix. If they do a Steem 2, I suspect we might get some of the their churn.
Regarding the churn rate, (60k users and 1m. accounts) My opinion is that steemit is the wallet. Many people never intended to be bloggers. Many others signed up on a whim. I know I have one account I've never used.
I don't find the churn rate upsetting. What I am very concerned about is our lack of identity, vision and plan to move forward. I am hoping that competition will help wake that up.
I am interested and also invested in both platforms but as of now, I don't see any competition. I don't think I would go through the process of building a following again, but I never say never. :)
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Good point about churn. There will be some leaving here to go there, but there will also be people there coming here. I am guessing that many people will just post on both. As a contributor, putting it on 2 blockchains is better than one. Its not as if people here dont go on Instagram, Facebook, Reddit, Twitter and etc. every day too.
One thing I didnt point out that doesnt matter much to me is that 60k active users is probably filled with a good amount of robots, services and alt accounts. I can't say an exact amount, but I see the bots and there are lots of them.
I dont see competition either. Ethereum has a blogging site now, there are a couple others like Library Credits. They are hardly competition to me though. Without a doubt it is coming, and with the current state of the social media aspect of this site, I see many points of weakness that a competitor might attack.
Thanks for taking the time. I hope all is well with you and Roundhere!
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Exactly, good comment.
Currently there is no competition or not something anywhere close. At least not for the next 2-3 years. The market for this is huge. There is so much land grab you can do right now. Just have to look at the amount of users just Facebook has. Looking at prices is a waste of time. Unless someone plans to live their future life with Fiat. But that is not where things are heading in the future. So the Fiat price won't matter.
Just as you state most people will never be bloggers. They are more passive. But they still in the future will love when they get used to it the ability to send value in 3 seconds and especially the no fees part. But again the adoption to these new platforms will take years. I think competition surely will help boost up the vision side since it's just human nature to grow lazy when you have nothing pushing against you. The DNA see no reason to invest or expand energy.
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Competition will be here in 2 months with Ono. I am mostly certain Dan will release a competitor to both within 1 year. He built Steem from scratch in 1 year, he has lots of the work already done having built EOS to save him time building other projects like Steem and Bitshares. You and Whatsup are giving me a little more hope than I had just thinking to much and keeping it all to myself though.
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I have no issue trying out new "steemit competitor" apps if its as good as Steem. I don't think its a betrayal to Steem too, Innovation comes with competition users will always go to apps that they think is best for them. Steem will always have a place in my heart though because its the app that got me started the path of "producing content".
I have a little bit of EOS myself but i admit its pure speculation at this point until they got some damn product going. Tribalism is not something im a fan of and i try not raise pitchforks as best as I can.
To say that its entirely "Steem versus EOS" is somewhat a narrow view. Steem already has competitors the day its genesis block was launched, Steem competes with Patreon, with Adsense, with publishing houses, with Ad networks. Its way bigger than just the blockchain itself.
I mean, sure i sound aloof as fuck now but i see myself as standing on the side of disruption and decentralization versus the side of middlemen and CPMs.
Doesn't matter which decentralized blockchain I'm using. I'm better off than those who are aching their brains over "how to get traffic".
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You make some good points here, especially about Dan holding a massive amount of Steem. As much as EOS is hyped, they still have to deliver on their promises though!
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Super interesting article Puffy and to be honest I didn't even know about the emerging competition to Steemit and I always come here for your insights and wealth of knowledge. I am not even going to touch on the maths of what would be successful or not, as I've no idea what I am talking about, but if there were other Steemit like platforms that users could extend out to a wider market, then sure I think it's a great idea. But, I didn't know that one person could bring down the price of Steem as they hold so much of it as you said, it's not powered up, therefore fluid and not locked in, causes a wee bit of trepidation. We'll have to see what happens, but @drpuffnstuff is where you get the hottest crypto news, for sure. I never leave unenlightened Puffy, thanks again and staying tuned.
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I have many of the same thought but I never bought any EOS. I just didn't have the funds to do it when the price was low and I had made some bad buys in steem so I could never sell it for eos.
I participate soley on Steemit and hope for the best. I think that a lot more time needed to be spent onboarding new members and helping them achieve success. I have spent a lot of time doing that. I think that you , @drpuffnstuff do a lot of that as well and it is appreciated.
I have high hopes for steemit but I'm not sure what my actual expectations are as an investor though. I feel like I missed out on owning some EOS.
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It will likely come down. (EOS) nobody knows for sure. Right now it is a brilliant idea, as someone else said, it will have it's own problems!
Even if EOS releases a competitor and i am sure they will, it will not "Kill Steem". People always forget Myspace is still out there working, and people who work there get paid. ;)
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I feel that EOS will be a little bit like iOS a bit pretentious but it doesn't make Android not having a market since you need 2 teams to play a game ;) ⚽️
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I'm glad you feel this way. I'm really unsure about how these things will react to each other when EOS matures.
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Missed out? We haven't even started the Blockchain Era. This will take decades!
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thanks for this - "I think that a lot more time needed to be spent onboarding new members and helping them achieve success." I am a new user and it is hard to wade through the bots and bullshit to figure out how to use this platform . There has been one or two people that have helped recently and I am starting to get a better understanding...but for someone learning about block chain through steem it is pretty overwhelming
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It's not overwhelming. Learning to drive a car takes weeks. Steemit takes a day of deeper attention to learn it.
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It took me a day to learn to drive a stick when I was 12. I'm still learning how to Steemit.
Not everyone has the same aptitude and goals, and this difference impacts their experience of learning.
I'm pretty confident your understanding of Steemit continues to evolve, particularly as Steemit continues to evolve.
Or do you have the answer to how superlinear rewards will impact oracular communities focused on long form blog posts and non-economic social metrics that use SMTs as means of growing community, rather than personal wealth?
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For me it's simple. It's about people communicating with each other and reward users. The system that is in place works for the moment. You post stuff and click upvote it's not that advanced. We will see how the future will be with SMT's.
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Yeah, for me driving a stick was about mashing the gas pedal when I released the clutch. Still works for me today =p
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seems to me its a lot more than that. true understanding is a lot more complicated in this space than how it works.
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Thanks for you sir @phoneinf
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The thing that surprises me the most is that Steem, with a working product, fails to crack the top 20. Now it has dropped to the 30s.
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Has the mainstream ever been right about anything? Go look at Spotify top 100 songs right now. That is the world population... Not Mozart taste haha
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That's true... although it would be nicer if they got it wrong the other way lol
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Man when everything is said and done - Steem and the Steemit platform have proven itself time and time again. EOS is yet to do so.
Look at today. An ethical hacker found numerous vulnerabilities in EOS network today itself. When a platform like steemit would finally be launched on the EOS blockchain then we will see how it performs.
I am sure with hard work and time EOS is going to make something decent but by that time steemit will still have matured further and evolved. There are so many good things coming up here - SMT's and I was reading was reading about the oracle accounts that can be configured with the SMT. Steemit is too in beta and we are maturing as well.............
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What steem blockchain has in its favor is that is easy to use and hasnt advertise yet, but the moment it starts to advertise the blockchain will explode just wait and see
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Yes! Considering that it's mainly developers, geeks and developing world people here there is some serious money when bigger investors come in from the Western World. Especially when they get more tired of the Banks ruining their future.
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Great to read another of your posts :)
Synchronistically, as I was going through my feed, I just watched this vlog by @dnews, right before reading your blog. I think this could be good additional information to consider, to make an informed decision :)
Peace.
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posts like this help me learn how crypto works. thanks for the help!
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interesting post!
(would be great if you could support my last post;)
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Coins mentioned in post:
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I just read an article this morning about EOS and how it will have only 21 servers, and those will be voted on, so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say that Eos will not be decentralized, but rather controlled by just a handful of people. Whether that makes it less likable or not remains to be seen.
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