After typing out that long comment, I've been looking at the numbers some more and think I've figured out the total_vote_weight issue. It looks like that total is scaled up by the author_curate_amount so that total_vote_weight = (sum of vote weights)/(1 - author_curate_amount). Then the numbers seem to work out. Hopefully this comment and reply can save someone else some time.
I'm still curious if you know of any changes to the curation calculations since this post ~2 months ago. Thanks again.
Curation reward formula was changed about a month ago, see here: https://steemit.com/steem/@dantheman/changes-to-curation-reward-allocation
It's a bit too thin on details, though.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
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