Angela Merkel's (not so big) secret to election success

Political upset and change -- the twin themes dominating Western politics of late -- have led to Britain's voting to leave the EU, the election of Donald Trump and, most recently, in Emmanuel Macron's ascendancy to the Elysée Palace in France.

Anything but the status quo everywhere, it seems. Well, nearly everywhere.
Six weeks ahead of Germany's national elections, Chancellor Angela Merkel launches her bid for reelection this weekend in Dortmund, a small city in Germany's industrial heartland and the country's most populous state.
Unlike other deeply polarizing elections in Europe (and the US), don't expect this one to get too heated. There will be no fire and brimstone from Merkel: she will run a calm -- maybe even bland -- campaign.
Macron and Merkel can make Europe great again
Macron and Merkel can make Europe great again
Posters for Merkel's Christian Democratic Party (CDU) give a hint as to what's likely to follow. "Enjoy the summer now, and make the right choice in the fall," one of them tells voters, with a picture of a smiling young woman lying in a field.
So can Merkel be stopped? It seems unlikely. She has won seven straight votes since she was first elected to parliament in 1990. And she will almost certainly win a fourth term as Chancellor in September, marking over a decade in power, and bucking the trend seen in other Western liberal democracies.
Her most recent approval rating, released on Thursday by Infratest Dimap, suggests that a whopping 59% of Germans think that "Mutti" is doing a good job. Other leaders would kill for numbers like these. For Merkel, there's room for improvement: it's 10% down from last month.
What about her competition? At the moment it looks likely it'll be blown out of the water.
Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
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Merkel, the then-leader of the opposition, meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2002.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel, the then-leader of the opposition, meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2002.
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Merkel is sworn in as Chancellor in November 2005.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel is sworn in as Chancellor in November 2005.
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Then-US President George W. Bush shows off a barrel of Bismarck herrings he was presented after his arrival in Stralsund, eastern Germany, in July 2006.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-US President George W. Bush shows off a barrel of Bismarck herrings he was presented after his arrival in Stralsund, eastern Germany, in July 2006.
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Then-US President Barack Obama and wife Michelle Obama arrive for dinner with Merkel and husband Joachim Sauer at the Charlottenburg Palace in Berlin in June 2013.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-US President Barack Obama and wife Michelle Obama arrive for dinner with Merkel and husband Joachim Sauer at the Charlottenburg Palace in Berlin in June 2013.
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Merkel and Obama test a virtual reality headset at a trade fair in Hanover in April 2016.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and Obama test a virtual reality headset at a trade fair in Hanover in April 2016.
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Merkel speaks to Obama on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in June 2015.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel speaks to Obama on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in June 2015.
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Merkel and US President Donald Trump hold a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 17, 2017.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and US President Donald Trump hold a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 17, 2017.
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German Chancellor and head of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel toasts during the Trudering festival in Munich, Germany, May 28, 2017.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
German Chancellor and head of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel toasts during the Trudering festival in Munich, Germany, May 28, 2017.
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Angela Merkel named Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2015.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel named Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2015.
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Angela Merkel is seeking her fourth term as German Chancellor, an office she's held since 2005. See photos of her through the years.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel is seeking her fourth term as German Chancellor, an office she's held since 2005. See photos of her through the years.
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Merkel (L) attends a New Year's Eve party in 1972.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel (L) attends a New Year's Eve party in 1972.
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Merkel visits a children's home in Ruegen during her campaign to become a member of parliament in 1990.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel visits a children's home in Ruegen during her campaign to become a member of parliament in 1990.
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Merkel takes the oath of office after being appointed Minister for Women and Youth in January 1991.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel takes the oath of office after being appointed Minister for Women and Youth in January 1991.
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Then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl (L), Merkel (C) and Wolfgang Schäuble (R) at the Christian Democratic Union party conference in Dresden in 1991.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl (L), Merkel (C) and Wolfgang Schäuble (R) at the Christian Democratic Union party conference in Dresden in 1991.
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Merkel, then-Minister for the Environment, visits a water control station in Bad Honnef in 1995.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel, then-Minister for the Environment, visits a water control station in Bad Honnef in 1995.
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Merkel and Health Minister Horst Seehofer attending a cabinet meeting in 1995.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and Health Minister Horst Seehofer attending a cabinet meeting in 1995.
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Merkel smiles for the camera while ironing wrapping paper in 1994.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel smiles for the camera while ironing wrapping paper in 1994.
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Merkel sits in a "strandkorb," or beach basket, in an undated photo.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel sits in a "strandkorb," or beach basket, in an undated photo.
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Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
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Merkel, the then-leader of the opposition, meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2002.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel, the then-leader of the opposition, meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2002.
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Merkel is sworn in as Chancellor in November 2005.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel is sworn in as Chancellor in November 2005.
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Then-US President George W. Bush shows off a barrel of Bismarck herrings he was presented after his arrival in Stralsund, eastern Germany, in July 2006.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-US President George W. Bush shows off a barrel of Bismarck herrings he was presented after his arrival in Stralsund, eastern Germany, in July 2006.
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Then-US President Barack Obama and wife Michelle Obama arrive for dinner with Merkel and husband Joachim Sauer at the Charlottenburg Palace in Berlin in June 2013.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-US President Barack Obama and wife Michelle Obama arrive for dinner with Merkel and husband Joachim Sauer at the Charlottenburg Palace in Berlin in June 2013.
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Merkel and Obama test a virtual reality headset at a trade fair in Hanover in April 2016.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and Obama test a virtual reality headset at a trade fair in Hanover in April 2016.
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Merkel speaks to Obama on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in June 2015.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel speaks to Obama on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in June 2015.
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Merkel and US President Donald Trump hold a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 17, 2017.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and US President Donald Trump hold a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 17, 2017.
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German Chancellor and head of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel toasts during the Trudering festival in Munich, Germany, May 28, 2017.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
German Chancellor and head of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel toasts during the Trudering festival in Munich, Germany, May 28, 2017.
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Angela Merkel named Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2015.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel named Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2015.
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19 of 19
Angela Merkel is seeking her fourth term as German Chancellor, an office she's held since 2005. See photos of her through the years.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel is seeking her fourth term as German Chancellor, an office she's held since 2005. See photos of her through the years.
Hide Caption
1 of 19
Merkel (L) attends a New Year's Eve party in 1972.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel (L) attends a New Year's Eve party in 1972.
Hide Caption
2 of 19
Merkel visits a children's home in Ruegen during her campaign to become a member of parliament in 1990.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel visits a children's home in Ruegen during her campaign to become a member of parliament in 1990.
Hide Caption
3 of 19
Merkel takes the oath of office after being appointed Minister for Women and Youth in January 1991.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel takes the oath of office after being appointed Minister for Women and Youth in January 1991.
Hide Caption
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Then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl (L), Merkel (C) and Wolfgang Schäuble (R) at the Christian Democratic Union party conference in Dresden in 1991.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl (L), Merkel (C) and Wolfgang Schäuble (R) at the Christian Democratic Union party conference in Dresden in 1991.
Hide Caption
5 of 19
Merkel, then-Minister for the Environment, visits a water control station in Bad Honnef in 1995.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel, then-Minister for the Environment, visits a water control station in Bad Honnef in 1995.
Hide Caption
6 of 19
Merkel and Health Minister Horst Seehofer attending a cabinet meeting in 1995.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel and Health Minister Horst Seehofer attending a cabinet meeting in 1995.
Hide Caption
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Merkel smiles for the camera while ironing wrapping paper in 1994.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel smiles for the camera while ironing wrapping paper in 1994.
Hide Caption
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Merkel sits in a "strandkorb," or beach basket, in an undated photo.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel sits in a "strandkorb," or beach basket, in an undated photo.
Hide Caption
9 of 19
Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
Photos: In photos: The life and career of Angela Merkel
Merkel (L) attends the opening of the Wagner Festival in Bayreuth in 2001.
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Martin Schulz -- leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and former president of the European Parliament -- promised to shake things up when he entered the political fray earlier this year, hoping to unseat Merkel.
At first his campaign dealt in emotional political rhetoric and seemed to be making headway. Column inches were filled with articles about "the Schulz Effect" as the SPD was neck-and-neck with Merkel's CDU in some polls.
And then it fell flat. The SPD made big losses in three regional elections that serve as bellwether of the national vote, including a painful defeat in North-Rhine-Westphalia, a traditional SPD heartland and the state that Dortmund happens to call home.
Trump could learn a lot from Angela Merkel
Trump could learn a lot from Angela Merkel
The task ahead seems nearly impossible now for the SPD. "The SPD is Burning," read an editorial in the respected German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung last week.
What's Merkel's big secret? Being Angela Merkel.
That means staying cool, calm and pragmatic, even in the face of the most difficult circumstances. Don't forget that she has weathered numerous crises in the last few years.
At the height of the eurozone crisis (remember those tense hours ahead of the 2015 "Greferendum," when Yanis Varoufakis jetted back and forth to Brussels, and it looked like Greece would be thrown out of the common currency?) it was Merkel who spent political capital to keep the bloc together.
Then there was the Ukraine crisis -- catalyzed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's particularly boisterous brand of nationalism -- which saw Merkel take the lead in placing EU sanctions on Moscow, despite Germany's close economic links to Russia.
Erdogan will regret alienating Angela Merkel
Erdogan will regret alienating Angela Merkel
Merkel's biggest "wobble" came during the 2015 migration crisis, when over a million refugees and asylum seekers came to Germany, forcing temporary border controls and heated public debate, domestically as well as internationally. As her approval ratings tumbled, some (mostly Anglo-Saxon) commentators were overzealous in predicting her imminent demise and the hijacking of German politics by the right-wing and anti-immigrant AfD party.
And yet, she persisted, telling Germans that "we will manage."
And that's the thing: they believe her -- much to the disbelief of some political observers. In this increasingly unstable world, German voters want their capable manager to remain in post. They want her to protect what matters to them most: the economy, and the European Union.
And in Germany there is no cause for great alarm. The economy is doing well, unemployment is at a low, and even the refugee crisis seems to have abated (for now).
Germans don't want a political revolution. So why would they take a risk?